Zogby: a bunch of new polls

[welshTerrier2]

i have no idea how accurate these are so please don't shoot the messenger ... there are piles of surprises here ... some good news; some bad news ... i hope some of these polls are wrong because if they're not, we're in a bit of trouble in the Senate ...

here's what Mr. Zogby says (Note: the source was listed as a Zogby "interactive" poll - some have questioned the integrity of interactive polling techniques although Zogby strongly defends them):

source: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1

Here are highlights of the most competitive contests:

* In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey (D) is now barely ahead of Sen. Rick Santorum (R-RI), 47% to 42.9%.
* In New Jersey, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is tied with Tom Kean Jr. (R), 40.4% to 40.2%.
* In Virginia, James Webb (D) now leads Sen. George Allen (R-VA), 50.4% to 42.9%.
* In Connecticut, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) leads Ned Lamont (D), 46% to 42.1%, but it's now within the margin of error.
* In Ohio, Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) beats Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH), 44.7% to 40.7%.
* In Missouri, Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) leads Claire McCaskill, 48.9% to 45%.
* In Tennessee, Bob Corker (R) leads Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN), 45.3% to 42.6%, but it's within the margin of error.

[goclark]

1. Wow! Sounds like Rove started his Number Cooking earlier

for this election! :puke:

[1932]

2. Considering Santorum is an Incumb. with tons of money,

although It's definitely not safe for Casey, it is remarkable, and he's got to be elated about where he is with two months to go.

[saltpoint]

3. Good tidings from Virginia on the Webb-Allen race, and pretty good in

Ohio, too.

I think Santorum loses in Pennsylvania, just because he's behaved so abominably, and I think Casey can make things happen in the next 7 or 8 weeks. Santorum's negatives are just beyond rescue, IMO.

We need some more oompf in NJ and MO, and all we can muster in Tennessee.

These races are all still very winnable, and well worth winning to boot.

[welshTerrier2]

5. VA was the biggest shocker ...

and NJ seems like a little good news too ... i had seen polls the last few days that showed Menendez behind by around 4 points or so ...

i agree that everything is still very much in play ... the biggest concern right now may be turnout ...

[saltpoint]

6. Agreed. And you're right also on NJ -- it would be great if Menendez

could hold onto that seat for us. It's part of our take-the-Senate-also plan.

[welshTerrier2]

8. Charlie Cook was on C-Span this morning ...

he seemed to be hinting that there was a "tide" at work this year unlike every year since 1994 ...

if that's the case, in he kept qualifying his analysis with all sorts of could be's and maybe's, the little numbers making up all these polls will be washed away in a nationalized tide ...

voters are angry but they're also very turned off to all the crap ... i think they've come to understand how bad bush is for the country but, unlike many of us, this leads to discouragement and inaction and hopelessness rather than a high-energy stimulus for change ... that's the concern right now: turn out ...

[saltpoint]

11. I love the combination of high turn out for our side and suppressed

turn out for theirs.

Katherine Harris is not going to help Charlie Crist in Florida, for instance.

And if Laffey wins in RI tomorrow, there just aren't enough nutcase zealots to upend a Democratic takeover there.

Out in Montana, the only question I have is why Conrad Burns hasn't been put down like a rabid farm animal. A total mystery.

So I'm hoping that tide is for real. Even with the multimillion dollar smear campaign the GOP is about to run, voters are not happy campers.

[welshTerrier2]

12. Ok ... let's handicap the Senate ...

the by the book, such as it is, has Dems gaining seats in RI, PA, OH and MT ... let's assume we win those ... we need a net gain of 6; that gets us 4 ... i'll ignore CT for this analysis, btw ... i have no idea how that one will turn out ...

then, we have hot races in Mo, VA, TN and maybe even NV ... if the Dems hold NJ, we still need to win one of those ... if we lose NJ, and that truly would be tragic, we'd need 3 out of 4 ... not impossible but sheesh, pretty damned tough ... best shot in my view, and i base this on years of wild guessing based on virtually nothing, is TN ... it's going to be incredibly close ... after that, i like our chances in MO and now, with this poll, i guess we have a very real shot in VA ... who'd'a thunk it? NV? well, yeah, it's kind of a long shot ... maybe it would be one of those "Dems sweep the east" so western repubs stay home ... plausible? sure, why not ...

my best guess right now: we win RI (Laffey wins the primary), OH, PA, MT and TN and hopefully MO but we lose VA, NV, and NJ ... so, without NJ, we gain 5 seats ... absent a "tide", i.e. is a bandwagon effect where people decide to back the Dems because they want to be on the winning team, i think we come up a seat or two short of taking back the Senate ... if i'm wrong, yahoooooooooo !!! how cool would that be !!

of course all of this discounts election fraud and some kind of engineered October surprise ...

[Stinky The Clown]

13. I'm bullish on VA

I really think Webb can win there .... IF he gets bux from the party. The fact is, he's exactly the kind of person that appeals to people in Virginia who can both think and vote. Allen appeals to the dunderheads and racists ... who also vote, but have no capacity for thought.

[saltpoint]

16. Very reasonable speculations. I agree with you on CT -- it is a strange

thing going on up there -- still, I like Lamont in that one, and there seem to be a lot of great DUers volunteering for Ned's campaign. I think Joe's in the final act of the play and doesn't realize the script calls for him to get it in the end.

I think we win in RI, PA, OH, MT and VA. I wouldn't have put VA on the list two weeks ago, but after that taunting and thuggish incident with Mr. Sidarth, I can't imagine John Warner-types tolerating it in Allen, and Webb is a Reagan Democrat who can appeal to the reasonable Republicans.

Nevada is going to take a real big push.

MO and TN are where it's at. If we hold NJ and don't lose anyplace else, we only need one of these, and I'm hunching it's Missouri. Go, Claire.

That would give us RI, PA, OH, MT, VA and MO, and, barring any loss in NJ or elsewhere, the U.S. Senate.

[welshTerrier2]

20. the CT thing ...

what's not clear to me about CT is not just who will win the election but, if Lieberman wins, what kind of support could Democrats even count on from him ... i think he's pretty close to a write-off ...

and that's especially true if we're trying to filibuster as a minority ... he'd never support it ... he'll be mr. play-both-sides-off-against-each-other ... he's the perfect "third way" triangulator ... forming your own centrist indy party is the ultimate extension of the third way ... rob peter to rob paul ...

[saltpoint]

21. Yep. I described Lieberman on DU once as wearing a blue uniform

but hanging out way too much in the red dugout.

We don't get much if he wins, that's for sure, and I think your suspicions about his loyalties are right.

We need Ned to win big in Connecticut.

It eliminates the iffy loyalty problem with Lieberman and puts a much deeper shade of blue in that Senate seat -- one far less likely to be malleable to GOP White House initiatives.

[Stinky The Clown]

23. Yanno ......

.... there's really no reason to think we can't take them all. Think about it. The list of 5 is pretty consistent. The fuzziness comes in on number 6 and beyond. And everyone who anyone has predicted each of the remainder at any given time has picked from this list and shown them as winners. So at least these aren't total pie in the sky.

So consider this (wildly optimistic, to be sure):

RI - Whitehouse over Laffey - in a laffer

PA - Casey over Sanatorium - we all KNOW Virginia's where Crazy Ricky is really from anyhow.

OH - Sherrod's been kicking Mikey for a while now. And with Blackwell going down even bigger, its a Dem Day in Ohio.

MT - No WAY Burns isn't gunna implode. Tester's just gotta wait for him to outBunning Bunning and its a walk.

NJ - in the end, Menendez will prevail. Kean Jr is too stupid for prime time. Besides, Tony Soprano hates his guts.

TN - Ever since the news about Corker's corker of deal selling that swamp land to WalMart made news, Ford's been up-up-up. Ford is a *very* impressive man. Corker's a hack. Ford by 4, minimum.

WA - see my post about this, below. Cantwell by 2.

VA - All signs point to an ascendent Webb and a Fleeing Felix. Mister Macaca loses by 4.

MO - Claire and NoTalent have been flipping the lead for a while. I smell a wave for the Dems that picks Clarie up and lands her a 2 point win.

AZ - The only true long shot. I'll leave it with Kyl ..... unless that wave catches Pedersen ..... but I don't think so. Too dry for waves to have an impact down there.

[welshTerrier2]

24. i don't even let myself think it ...

hmmmm ... i just can't imagine what it would be like around here the next morning ... i really think i would be too stunned to post anything ... the magnitude of a win like would require a whole lot of new perspective on the events of the day ... we've been down so long it looks like ... well, you know the rest ...

after a few simple "yeeeeeeeahooooooooooo's", a whole lotta old think frameworks would have to be "swapped out" and a whole lotta new think frameworks would have to be built in a hurry ... if you know what i mean ...

[saltpoint]

25. I love it. Your list is just what we need to hear. Agree that 5 are

looking good, and we just need that sixth.

I'll take your encouragement in Tennessee. Certainly Corker's a marginal factor in the big picture scheme, and Ford is a man with a true future. Let's hope Ford's rising numbers keep rising. Tennessee replaced two good Democratic Senators with two nitwit Republicans -- Lamar Alexander (The Shitmaster) and Bill Frist (THE CAT BUTCHER). My god but that state owes us a Democrat.

I saw your post downthread on Cantwell, but hope she wins by more. I understand some DUers' disenchantment with some of her votes but hells bells, folks, she's far preferable to her opponent.

Your prediction of an Allen loss in Virginia is spirit-lifting. If he loses he has earned it almost single-handedly. And friends in Virginia email me with encouragements on that race, too. Agree with you -- we should count that one blue.

[Stinky The Clown]

14. Cook's not the only who's talking about that wave ......

Chuck Todd from the Hotline was talking about it last week. As you say, lotsa 'ifs' and 'maybes', but I'm smelling it.

Ths afternoon we were at a neighborhood thing. One of the lifelong Republicans (now in his late 70s) just said, very resignedly 'the Democrats are gonna win big, you know.' I asked him why. He said the Repubs he speaks to are just disgusted with Bush and anyone connected to him. (The Repubs around here tend to be the old style ones, not the religiofacsists of the 'new breed'.)

[welshTerrier2]

17. roll the dice ...

i frankly can't read the situation very clearly ...

we've talked about tides and leaky dams for some time now ... the thing is, some of the polls intensely focus on "likely voters" ... i have no idea what to make of that information ... does it mean they have any ability to forecast turnout? do they really have any idea who will show up and who will stay home ...

i mean, most of the "better" pollsters at least try to take that into account ... they aren't just talking to random people on the street ... well, except maybe for these interactive polls ...

my r-n-g tells me we are likely to pick-up 122 seats in the Senate this year ... software can be overly optimistic that way ...

[Stinky The Clown]

19. Geeez .... even if Guam and Puerto Rico and the Marshalls get

statehood .......

:rofl:

[welshTerrier2]

9. another VA poll has Allen up by 4 ...

just so no one gets too happy, here's one on the other side of the ledger:

source: http://www.roanoke.com/news/breaking/wb/82007

The controversy surrounding U.S. Sen. George Allen’s campaign trail remarks in August has helped turn his re-election race into a close contest, according to a poll conducted for The Roanoke Times and other Virginia newspapers.

Allen, the Republican incumbent, leads Democrat Jim Webb by just 4 percentage points — 46 to 42 — in a survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Allen’s lead has diminished by 12 points since a Mason-Dixon poll conducted in July, even though Webb was barely seen on the campaign trail for much of the summer. <skip>

[Lasher]

26. This Mason-Dixon poll is more recent than Zogby

I had missed the Mason-Dixon poll, thanks. The Zogby polls were conducted 8/29 thru 9/5 and the Mason-Dixon poll ran from 9/5 thru 9/7. I go by the last date during which a survey was conducted to determine which is the latest because publication dates can be inconsistent. Rasmussen, for example, gives initial access to their poll results only to their paying subscribers, and we poor folks have to wait until later to be enlightened.

So now I have to take VA out of my 'Dem pickup' column and put it back into the 'very close' category, boo hoo. That still leaves us with pickups in 5 states: Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee. And where we were behind in the race to retain New Jersey, we have now regained a slight lead, 40.4% to 40.2%.

[NMDemDist2]

4. in AZ Kyl is only 6 points ahead of Pederson

which is a total shocker. Pederson has never been elected to any position before and Kyl has a HUGE warchest.

but here's a snip from the email I got from Pederson's campaign

Today, the Hotline/National Journal is reporting that a new poll shows Jon Kyl's lead over Jim down to a mere six points, further enforcing the fact that Jim is in striking distance of Kyl -- with no sign of slowing down.

The poll, conducted by Harstad Strategic Research, Inc., shows the race down to 47- 41, with Kyl's approval ratings still below 50 percent. Further, the data show a significant increase in Jim's recognition among Arizona voters, as well as a five-point lead for Jim among registered independents.

Harstad serves as pollster for Senators Ken Salazar, Barack Obama, Tom Harkin and Jack Reed -- including the only two new Democratic senators who were elected in 2004. Harstad's final 2004 poll for Ken Salazar showed him leading by 4.4 percent, while the final result produced a 4.8 percent margin.

[saltpoint]

7. It'd be ok with me if Kyl lost big.

Real ok.

[Stinky The Clown]

10. I dunno about this poll

I'd like to believe it, but I see a few things that just look ..... off. Not chicanery, just off. Like maybe the notion of interactive polling ain't all that, yanno?

In Maryland, they have Mfume ahead of Steele by a HUGE 11 point margin. And they don't mention Cardin. We won't know if it is Mfume or Cardin until we vote this coming Tuesday. That said, in every poll I've seen of late, Mfume leads Steele by just a few ... and one (maybe two) showed Steele ahead of Mfume by a point or two.

While Virginia would be my wildest dream come true, I have a hard tme seeing Webb 7 points ahead. Ahead within the MOE I could accept, but not that far.

Joisey's REAL troubling.

I also have a hard time with Cantwell and Kobuchar being as far ahead as this shows.

All in all .... too optimistic for my taste.

(No shots were fired at messengers during the making of this post.)

[welshTerrier2]

15. can you say r-n-g ...

yup ... that's where i got the numbers ... my very own homegrown random number generator ...

i think your instincts are pretty good on the races you analyzed ... well, except for the Cantwell race ... Charlie Cook said she's blown the race wide open now ... the guy she's running against put both feet and something called a trailer hitch and one of those Xmas cakes with the little chunks of dried fruit in his mouth all at the same time ...

and Joisey is very disturbing ... how painful would it be if Corzine's resignation ended up costing us control of the Senate??? nice call there, John ...

[Stinky The Clown]

18. Washington State .....

.... obviously I am watching that one from WAAAAAY afar. But isn't that the race where the Repub 'fessed up to some shit early in his life and it turns out he lied in the 'fess-up? A forgotten DUI or sometthing? But even still, the buzz I get (and admittedly it is a race I'm not that familiar with) is that Cantwell ain't so 'well' on her campaign trail either.

All that said, I see Cantwell in a squeaker.

[welshTerrier2]

22. Cook is my only source on this race ...

if he's wrong, so am i ...

i'll make the same point about WA that i made about NV ... if the Dems mop up big time in the Northeast and the Midwest, we might just see a lot of west coast republicans throwing in the towel and staying home ... how cool would that be? it could help in WA and NV and maybe even in AZ ... throw in those last two and we have the makings of a mini-landslide ...

now there's a pleasant thought to ponder, eh ??

[LittleClarkie]

27. Why is Bob Casey "barely ahead"

When there are races listed that are just as close if not closer, and the words "barely ahead" are not used?

What the hell?