Your take on the Senate Races in November

[rpannier]

There are 33 races in November. 17 seats are Dem, 15 puke and 1 Ind.

The lock races appear to be: 11D 6R 1I
California - D Utah - R Vermont - I
New Mexico - D Wyoming - R
Nebraska - D Texas - R
North Dakota - D Indiana - R
Wisconsin - D Mississippi - R
Florida - D Maine - R
West Virginia - D
Delaware - D
Massachussetts - D
New York - D
Hawaii - D

Close races 8D 2R
Washington - D Nevada - R
Montana - D ** Tennessee - R
Minnesota - D
Michigan - D
Rhode Island - D **
Pennsylvania - D **
Maryland - D
Washington - D

Toss-Up: 3D 2R
Ohio - D * Missouri - R
New Jersey - D Virginia - R
Connecticut - D

This gives us a 4 seat pick up and we lose no seats. I am hoping for Missouri and Virginia as well. But, I have this ugly feeling in the end that both states will go puke.
I also feel in the end that Connecticut will go Lamont.

How do you think these races will go in November?

On note: I listed RI as close because it will depend on who the puke nominee is.

[DarthDem]

1. Four-Seat Pickup?

Maybe I'm reading it wrong - - are you forecasting +4 or +5?

I think one or both of Missouri and Virginia will flip over. Like you, I don't see any lost seats.

[rpannier]

3. My mistake

4 seats. With no loses.
I also hold out hope for Tennessee.
But, I prefer to hope for the best and expect the worst sometimes.

[Frazzled Educator]

2. My take on them.

The lock races appear to be: 12D 6R 1I
California - D
Utah - R
Vermont - I, but votes D
New Mexico - D
Wyoming - R
Nebraska - D
North Dakota - D
Indiana - R
Wisconsin - D
Mississippi - R
Florida - D
Maine - R
West Virginia - D
Delaware - D
Massachussetts - D
New York - D
Hawaii - D
Nevada - R
Washington - D

Close races 5D 2R
Texas - R (Hutchison is only up by 9%)
Montana - D (D PU)
Minnesota - D
Michigan - D
Rhode Island - D (D PU)
Pennsylvania - D (D PU)
Maryland - D
Arizona - R (Kyl is only up by 8% and Pederson is running a great race)

Toss-Up: 6D Zero R
Ohio - D (D PU)
Missouri - D (D PU)
New Jersey - D
Virginia - D (D PU)
Connecticut - D (Real D PU)
Tenneesee - D (D PU)

Democrats after the election - 23, including Bernie Sanders in VT
Republicans after the election - 8

Republican drubbing.

[Stinky The Clown]

4. Look here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=2821753#2821934

It was a whole discussion of the Sente races. This was my reply:

.... there's really no reason to think we can't take them all. Think about it. The list of 5 is pretty consistent. The fuzziness comes in on number 6 and beyond. And everyone who anyone has predicted each of the remainder at any given time has picked from this list and shown them as winners. So at least these aren't total pie in the sky.

So consider this (wildly optimistic, to be sure):

RI - Whitehouse over Laffey - in a laffer

PA - Casey over Sanatorium - we all KNOW Virginia's where Crazy Ricky is really from anyhow.

OH - Sherrod's been kicking Mikey for a while now. And with Blackwell going down even bigger, its a Dem Day in Ohio.

MT - No WAY Burns isn't gunna implode. Tester's just gotta wait for him to outBunning Bunning and its a walk.

NJ - in the end, Menendez will prevail. Kean Jr is too stupid for prime time. Besides, Tony Soprano hates his guts.

TN - Ever since the news about Corker's corker of deal selling that swamp land to WalMart made news, Ford's been up-up-up. Ford is a *very* impressive man. Corker's a hack. Ford by 4, minimum.

WA - see my post about this, below. Cantwell by 2.

VA - All signs point to an ascendent Webb and a Fleeing Felix. Mister Macaca loses by 4.

MO - Claire and NoTalent have been flipping the lead for a while. I smell a wave for the Dems that picks Clarie up and lands her a 2 point win.

AZ - The only true long shot. I'll leave it with Kyl ..... unless that wave catches Pedersen ..... but I don't think so. Too dry for waves to have an impact down there.

[usregimechange]

5. Let me tell you something about Missouri.

I live in the red-est county in MO and there are Claire signs everywhere! Claire is a very smart gal and I think she can carry the state. Polling shows it tied, has for months.

[rpannier]

6. Glad to hear it

It's why I'm asking for other peoples takes.
Sometimes it's very difficult to get info on the states.

[hatrack]

7. Are you in Greene County? If Springfield's sprouting Claire signs . . .

There is indeed hope in the air!

:toast:

[saracat]

8. And Jim Pederson is only six points behind Kyl in Arizona!

Shouldn't that race be included somewhere?