New Rasmussen Polls for MT, RI and OH

[skipos]

From Sept 18:
MT
Jon Tester (D) 52%
Conrad Burns (R) 43%
http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/September%202006/montanaSenate.htm

OH
Sherrod Brown (D) 47%
Mike DeWine (R) 41%
http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/September%202006/ohioSenate.htm

RI
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 51%
Lincoln Chafee (R) 43%
http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/September%202006/rhodeIslandSenate.htm

In case you missed it, from Sept 15:
MO
Claire McCaskill (D)45%
Jim Talent (R) 42%
http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/September%202006/MissouriSenate.htm

VA
George Allen (R) 50%
James Webb (D) 43%
http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/September%202006/VirginiaSenate.htm

In case you missed it, from Sept 9:
TN
Bob Corker (R) 45%
Harold Ford, Jr. (D) 44%
http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/September%202006/TennesseeSenate.htm

In case you missed it, from Aug 25:
PA
Bob Casey, Jr. (D) 48%
Rick Santorum (R) 40%
Carl Romanelli (G) 5%
http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/August%202006/PennsylvaniaSenate.htm

[Tarheel_Dem]

1. thank you skipos....

Wow...I had no idea that Whitehouse was outperforming Chaffee, this is super good news. And Jon Tester is smacking the crap out of Burns? OMG....Claire is outpolling Talent? Stop me, I'm as giddy as a schoolgirl.

I think I'll send my newfound friend Jim Webb a little contribution today, sounds like he needs a little help. But, I have faith that we can pull this one out.

Thanks for compiling this list skipos, it's great to see that we're competitive in a lot of places we never would have thought possible. I think the biggest shocker for me has been Ford in TN...

[ddeclue]

2. What about FL races?

[Zynx]

3. The Senate race is in the bag.

It doesn't matter.

[ddeclue]

5. I know THAT...I live in FL and I'm involved in politics.

I meant Gov's race, U.S. House races, State Senate, State House races..any data on these?

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[Zynx]

9. Only the Gov's race is polled by Rasmussen.

Last time I think it had Crist ahead by 5 or 6.

[Lasher]

10. Here, try this

http://electionpredictions.blogspot.com/2005/12/florida-sunshine-state.html

It's the Florida state page at Election Predictions.

[ddeclue]

11. Cool! Thanks :)

[ChiciB1]

23. Thanks For This Link!!! Great To Keep Track With This!

How the HELL did Cruella get up to 34%??? I swear if this witch is around after November, someone is going to hear me HOLLER!

I had it with her.... 6 years here in my District!!! I don't like Nelson very much, but CRIKEY, I can't bear the thought!

[Lasher]

25. Hold onto your hat

The latest Florida Senate poll, which was conducted 9/14/06 by Survey USA, gives Nelson 53% and Harris 38%. This poll has not yet been incorporated into Election Predictions' Florida page. This is the best Harris has done in a poll since 2/14/06. Here is a listing of all the Florida Senate polls that have been conducted:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2006#Opinion_polling

But not to worry. I'm sure this is the last we'll see of her.

I have noticed that Wikipedia does a good job of promptly updating polling information in their Senate race pages. Here is an index of those pages:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:United_States_Senate_elections_by_state

And have you checked out the DU Research Forum?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=358

It's got state pages in the Campaign Underground 2006 section.

[skipos]

4. Nelson 57% Harris 34% (Rasmussen Sept 5)

All the polls that I have seen have Nelson up a lot.

[bigdarryl]

6. After the debate on meet the press I...

Hope the poll numbers for VA. senate race is closer than this latest poll. and why isn't Ford and Corker going on meet the press. Rumor i heard was Corker refused to debate Ford on meet the press.

[YOY]

7. Go Sherrod! Go!

Kick some 'pub ass!

[OzarkDem]

16. He sure is!

Given their results "lean" right this is very good news. OTOH, it looks like they want to pick on Webb now that he's caught up to Allen.

[Javaman]

8. prepare for the closer races to be dieboled. nt

[autorank]

12. K&R You are one thoughtful DUer...More good news...

Rasmussen tends to have a Republican bias or at least it seems that way compared to the other polls.

In the case of Virignia, he's dead wrong or this is old. Now way Allen is in front. We've got other polls here with it even or Webb ahead. Probably a small sample.

But htis is great stuff....TN is encouraging...good for Ford.

[skipos]

14. Rasmussen's approval ratings for Bush are always @10% higher

than everyone else. Maybe he uses a higher sample of Republicans? For the 05 race, Ras predicted a Kaine (D) win by 2 or 3% and Kaine ended up winning by 6%.

[autorank]

15. He does tilt...didn't realize it was 10% but that doesn't surprise me.

Shops like his must get support just to put out the props...amazing.

Everybody got burned on Kaine. You make a very astute point. Two things happened. Fairfax County, 1.0 million highly educated people (mostly tech, professionals, govt) got fed up all at once with another Robertson/Fallwell candidate (I was part of that) and went 65-33% in many places for Kaine. It was a huge protest at the zealotry and also at the rest of the state for jerking us around on taxes nad roads. The second factor was the conversion of Loudoun County, just West of Fairfax. Loudoun went something like 54-46% Kaine. That was a first. Loudoun is the fastest growing county in America; same mix of people but more tech, business types. Arlington is 70-30% Democrat and Alexandria has always been around 60-40% or so. So that's a rokken 60-40% Democratic base for 1/3rd of the states population, give or take. And we're growing...

Statewide tickets for the Virginia Republican party are finished for decades in Northern Virginia. They can't help themselves, putting up these extremist candidates and people here have good memories. There won't be trust for a couple of generations or, if there is. only among new comers (who will quickly be converted;).

It's really interesting. The demographic is high economicaly but very mixed culturally and racially, very international. Very little racial tension. The connection between the Virginia of the 1960's when schools were shut rather than integrate has been broken for 30 plus years. Now the old "ways" are an inconceivable historical artifact.

Nice place and totally Blue, for good.

Without Northern Virginia, Kaine would have won by 10,000 votes...that's probably what they were measuring...we don't have good polls here. Mason Dixon, Rasmussen, yuck.

There was a liberal Republican from Winchester named Potts who got about 3%. He was a blocking move against Kilgore, not needed but he's a good man for doing that. With his 2.5-3.0 added to Kaine's margin, the anti-conservative Republican vote was about 8%, what's called an ass kicking. The Lt. Gov and A.G. candidates who lost in very close races were victims of a lousy voting system. We'll correct that next time.

Webb will win because of Northern Virginia. We're not through cleaning house and Felix must go. That will be about 60-40% anyway. It's all about turnout.

[skipos]

18. Thanks for the info!

Good luck out there!
:patriot:

[ChiciB1]

24. Funny, Here In Florida They Have Nelson Up Higher Than Other

polls. This IS weird because they do always "lean" to the right somewhat!

[MallRat]

13. RI is a pleasant surprise.

I didn't think Whitehouse would start off with any significant lead vs. Chafee. So far, so good.

And in PA, what's going on with Romanelli? Weren't his signatures being challenged?

-MR

[TheFarseer]

20. His support will evaporate if it's a close race

Expect 2-3 percent, not 5. Maybe even less if it's closer than it is now between Casey and Santorum. Almost all of those votes will go to Casey. That's what typically happens in such races.

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Yes, that is the terrific surprise

I thought Chafee would get a bump put of winning a competitive primary but instead the lead goes to Whitehouse.

Still, I trust my instincts above polls and I doubt the lead is that high, against an incumbent who has a decent approval rating.

[jenmito]

17. During the weekend,

Faux THs were all claiming Rassmussen had Bush's approval at 47%. They KNOW his polls are daily (3-day) polls and he was at 47% ONE day last week and since then he has gone back to 41%. And he IS always higher than all the other polls in the Repubs.' favor.

[Clarkie1]

19. Good news. Looking forward to more positive movement in TN and VA.

We can take the senate. It is very doable.

[otohara]

21. Jim Webb is So Smart, What's Up Virginia????

no more stupid presidents, and no more stupid senators!!!

[Imagevision]

22. Looking good.. Montana- Jon Tester (D) 52% - Conrad Burns (R) 43%

getting better with each passing week

[Deep13]

27. Holy shit, we might get 51!

[Frazzled Educator]

28. I'm thinking 53 with 1 "independent" senator in Sanders.

I can see pickups in:

AZ, MT, TN, MO, VA, PA, OH and RI.

I consider CT a pick up as Joementun is not a Democrat.