I predict: October surprise will be Capture of Bin Laden or

[JDPriestly]

invasion of Iran, possibly both.

Here is my fictional, but quite possible scenario re the capture of Bin Laden.

The Rose Garden scene set the stage for the capture of Bin Laden. He may already be in custody. Recently, American aircraft "violated" Pakistani airspace -- a practice run? Musharraf's book will hit the shelves just in time to coincide with the announcement of the arrest. They've probably been watching Bin Laden for ages. And the deal Musharraf made with militants on the border, and the release of the prisoners -- a trick. The plan is that the real militants, a few weeks after their release, will join Bin Laden's forces and be arrested or die with him during the taking of Bin Laden's stronghold.

It is quite likely that Bin Laden will not be captured alive. A live Bin Laden could be an embarrassment. A live Bin Laden on TV could be a serious problem. And a live Bin Laden at Guantanamo would be worse.

I'm guessing, but I really think it is a good guess.

The worst of it is that many of the "left-wing" spokespeople including politicians and radio personalities have been ridiculing Bush for not having caught Bin Laden. Ridicule on that basis is strategically unwise since all the facts are not known. The ridicule is based on a hypothesis no more certain than the hypothesis on which I base my prediction.

As for Iran, it is practically a forgone conclusion that we are going into Iran. My bet, we "catch" or kill Bin Laden first, and then, with Bush's poll numbers and support going up upon the news, Bush hits Iran.

This is, of course a Rove election ploy. Personally, I think that Musharraf and Bush have known where Bin Laden has been hiding for quite some time.

The sad part is that Bin Laden's capture will by no means end the Muslim terrorism. It existed before Bin Laden, and it will continue to exist.

And, no, I am not a Republican. I'm a staunch Democrat. More important, I'm very cautious and skeptical, especially when it comes to Rove's tactics. The Republicans are desperate to win this election. I put nothing past them -- even letting a terrorist enjoy his freedom until the ideal political moment for them to capture or kill him.

[OwnedByFerrets]

1. Hell, its beginning to look as though

all the fuckers have to do is get gas down to $2 a gallon and its in the bag. :puke:

[liberal N proud]

2. I paid $1.98 tonight

These dumb bastards will take the bait, I am sure

[BlueStorm]

7. Mom and I were arguing about that tonight

She was telling me about a gas station at an intersection that's on her way to dialysis that was selling gas for $2.09. I told her that it was because the elections were coming up and the big Repug oil men want to keep their Reps in office. She didn't believe me at first, she was all like, "No they are just lowering it and besides it's still $2.29 in other places."

I said, "Yeah but it's probably lower here because Michigan is a swing state and thus is one of the factoring states in elections." She then agreed with me and was like "Yeah I can see what you're saying."

Blue

[skids]

3. My guess: Elian Gonzales meets Waco

Some sort of cointelpro-engineered standoff situation involving illegal immigration. Trivially insignifacant in the big scheme of things, but played 24x7 on all major news outlets.

(EDIT: Or they will fail to capture bin laden just barely and blame it on not being able to torture.)

[Imagevision]

4. October Surprise is "ships leaving Norfolk to go to bomb Iran" Nov. 7th

Dem surprise is repugs losing the house and senate!

[Generic Brad]

5. I've got a more plausible October Surprise scenario

Rove has nothing credible up his sleeve. Zilch. Everything the Republicans do seems to backfire. They saber rattle Iran and it blows up in their faces. They send a dog whistle to the right through the evangelical churches regarding gay marriage or immigration and it fails to elicit the support they hoped for. Gas dips below $2.00 a gallon and the undecideds still remain anxious about the economy. Finally, they hope and pray for some news event they can capitalize on but it never comes along, instead they get ensnared deeper in corruption scandals. They try to rig some voting machines and get caught.

They've got nothing left in the tank. You may think I'm an optimist, but I'm not. I'm usually quite cynical. I am of the opinion that there is no way this crowd can legitimately hold power unless they blatantly cheat nationwide. Their support has eroded and their opposition has never been stronger. The October Surprise is that they will collectively realize they are going down in November!

[Vadem]

6. You mean the thawing out of Bin Laden..... that is what I think...

will happen in October! I think they have him on ice already and are preparing for the October surprise!

[lwcon]

8. Bush probably has the National Guard out looking...

... to capture the enemy that did him the most harm: Katrina.

___

Hey, the liberal light is always on at the Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy. Please stop by and say "hi!"

[HuffleClaw]

9. thawing bin laden is a rather dangerous proposition though

it would more than likely prompt the bad guys to retaliate, thus proving that his death/capture hasn't stopped them. and its a real toss-up as to whether bush would be blamed for 'not protecting america' should another attack occur. sure, the media would wave the flag furiously and carefully prepared polls would tell the public bush is being 'supported', but the truth would be rather different i suspect.

[Muddy Waters Guitar]

10. Not Bin Laden-- he's too useful for Rovian propaganda on the loose

There's never been and won't be a serious attempt to capture Osama bin Laden, he's far too useful as a propaganda instrument for the Rethugs to use in making excuses to invade countries with no connection to him (e.g. Iraq).

No, the real prize for the Rethugs is Iran. I suspect there'll be a ramp-up for anti-Iranian air strikes. I'm not sure if the strikes would commence prior to the elections, but there would be some "incident" in Iraq conveniently blamed on Iran, something that would silence any Democratic war critics as "unpatriotic," then, before you can say "Where are those WMD's, again?", we're at war. Sure, it'd be terrible for the country in general, but for a certain well-placed faction and their cronies, it's manna from heaven basically.