jackbourassa's ELECTION PROJECTION...

[jackbourassa]

I have been keeping a journal with updated polling and financial figures for the upcoming midterm elections and this is what I have so far...

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:

Democrats are ahead in 27 Republican controlled districts.

Democrats are tied or behind within the margin of error in 14 Republican controlled districts.

There are 11 "vulnerable" Republican districts (according to the Cook Report) that have no polling information.

There is only ONE vulnerable Democratic district - IL-08 - and Democrats currently enjoy a small 48% to 45% lead.

Therefore, if the election were held today, I project the Democrats would PICK-UP between 27 and 52 seats.

Here's how it breaks down...

Republican districts with a Democratic lead:

District: Dem. Adv. (%)

AZ-08 + 8
CO-07 + 17
CT-02 + 6
IL-06 + 1
IN-08 + 15
IN-09 + 11
IA-01 + 7
KY-04 + 4
NC-11 + 3
OH-18 + 14
PA-06 + 5
CA-11 + 4
CT-05 + 3
IN-02 + 12
NY-24 + 8
OH-01 + 9
PA-07 + 1
PA-10 + 9
VA-02 + 8
WA-08 + 3
WI-08 + 8
FL-13 + 8
FL-16 ***
ID-01 + 1
MN-01 + 6
TX-22 + 29
KS-02 + 1

*** seat currently held by Rep. Tom Foley who has since dropped out, but whose name will remain on the ballot.

Republican Districts where Democrats are tied or trail within the margin of error:

District Dem Adv (%)

NM-01 even
KY-03 - 1*
NH-02 even
NY-29 even
PA-08 - 4*
CA-04 - 2*
CO-04 - 4*
NV-02 - 2*
NY-19 - 5*
NY-25 - 4*
WY-AL - 4*
OH-12 - 1*
NE-03 - 3*
NY-25 - 2*

* The Republican incumbent is well below 50% and in every case but two is below 45%.

"Vulnerable" Republican seats* where NO POLLING exists:
* Considered "vulnerable" by Charlie Cook.

District P/V/I

NH-01 even
NJ-07 R + 1
NY-20 R + 3
CA-50 R + 5
FL-08 R + 3
FL-09 (open) R + 4
IL-10 D + 4
IL-11 R + 1
IA-02 D + 7
KY-02 R + 7
NY-03 even

THE UNITED STATES SENATE:

There are 7 "vulnerable" Republican Senate seats currently being contested...

State Dem. Adv. (%)

Pennsylvania + 9
Montana + 7
Tennessee + 1
Ohio + 4
Rhode Island + 1
Missouri even
Virginia even

There are 3 "vulnerable" Democratic Senate seats currently being contested...

State Dem. Adv. (%)

Maryland + 6
New Jersey + 3
Washington + 10

My projection for the Senate is that we PICK-UP 5 to 7 Democratic Senators.

Keep checking with my DU journal, as I will update these figures when the time is appropriate.

[Demeter]

1. 16 and 6 Are the Magic Minimum Numbers

Anything over is just so much fudge on top! Yum!

[Zynx]

2. I'm currently projecting only 24-27 pick ups in the House, but I would

welcome more. If this thing grows over the next week even more, I will bump it up to 28-31 seats. The Senate I think will see either 50-50 or 51D and D-affiliated inds. to 49 Rs.

[Awsi Dooger]

23. Only 24-27?

Wow. I wish you guys made the betting lines. The over/under right now would be roughly 16 or 17, since Democrats are trading at about 55% to take the House.

It's extremely dangerous to look at tiny poll leads in selected polls and assume victory in every one of them. That defies mathematical probability but on DU that is never properly understood.

I'm still worried we haven't presented enough of a message or clear alternative to motivate our base to show up. I'd rather have great candidates like Jon Tester in every race than all of the GOP implosions. No one is ever going to convince me that negative news regarding the other side is the way to win elections. No more than a car salesman would ask what other brand you were considering then bash it relentlesssly instead of pitching his product.

[TheFarseer]

3. kicked

because it's nice to see a breakdown of the House races.

[jackbourassa]

5. I just want to add that it is possible that there are MORE...

vulnerable Republican seats out there. Take NY-26 for example. That district was not on anyone's list in the beginning, this is the seat being held by Republican Congressman Tom Reynolds. This is a pretty solid Republican district in upstate New York.

But then Survey USA came out with a poll late last week showing Reynolds with only a 2% lead ( R-45% D-43%). Even worse, 8% said they supported the Green Party candidate (who has since been taken off the ballot). Even worse still, Reynolds name keeps being brought up in this whole Foley scandal.

So just like that, we have another potential pick-up for the Democrats.

How many others are out there which have not recieved that much attention?

I think it's entirely possible that we win 50 to 55 seats if everything aligns right for us. But I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility, in fact i'd say it is likely at this point, that we win 30 to 40.

[elperromagico]

15. As long as Reynolds can get those toddlers,

his most loyal supporters, to vote for him, he's a shoo-in.

What's that you say? They can't vote? Oh... he's in trouble then.

[Blue_In_AK]

16. The Dem candidate for House in Alaska

Diane Benson, is down by about 10 points right now, but she's picking up momentum daily against Don Young, who's been in the House since 1972, and is an embarrassment. Alaskans are sick of him, and as soon as they hear about Diane they're jumping on board, Dems and Republics, as well. Sadly, we're not getting any support from the national party yet (although we've been told they're watching the race closely), but this is a true grassroots effort, and we're not losing hope.

http://www.bensonforcongress.com/

A remarkable candidate, and one that Dems everywhere should be proud of and support.

[kwolf68]

18. Don Young vulnerable?

Holy shit...say it aint so Joe? DeLay and Young are my two most hated congressmen by far (among the many)...to have them both out would literally make me drunk with excitement.

[Blue_In_AK]

19. Us, too, believe me...

It's hard not to get our hopes up when we have such a good candidate. She's doing very, very well, given the lack of monetary support from the party, and seriously, she IS the anti-Don. Did you check out her website? She's got him pegged.

[paulk]

21. Colorado 5th district is in play -

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20061003/pl_cq_politics/coloradoroundup5thdistrictnolongersafeforgop

still kind of a long shot, but we can dream, can't we?

at the very least, the RNC will have to spend money there that they ordinarily wouldn't have, and that takes away from their efforts in CO 7 and 4.

[Eric J in MN]

4. Where do you get polls on House races such as Eric Massa's NY-29?

I can't find polling on most House races.

[jackbourassa]

6. I get them everywhere and anywhere...

I get them on www.mydd.com or www.swingstateproject.com or anywhere I see that new polls are coming out.

I'm not sure where I got the NY-29 one from. But I got the race at:

Randy Kuhl 42%
Eric Massa 42%

You can also find more information on the NY-29 race from...

www.fighting29th.com

www.dragonflyeye.net/blog

www.rochesterturning.com

I hope this helps.

[JerseygirlCT]

7. I'm glad to see you think

Chris Murphy will throw Nancy Johnson out in CT. But I'm not feeling that optimistic about that race. The other two here seem closer. And Johnson's running her attack ads relentlessly. She's got a huge amount of money to play with.

Hoping you're right!!!

[jackbourassa]

8. Those numbers are not projections...

They're actual polling results. The last poll gave Murphy a small lead.

[JerseygirlCT]

9. Wow! Cool! Thanks for posting

I wonder why I haven't seen a whiff of that in the papers?

[Nimrod2005]

13. Nothing from Florida 22? No polls?

[jackbourassa]

14. Ya, Dems are losing...

Florida-22:

Clay Shaw 52%
Democrat 44%

[jackbourassa]

10. After viewing today's Zogby polls...Democrats now lead in 29

CT-04, the seat held by Christopher Shays, wasn't even on the list.

But Zogby has the poll: 46% to 41% in favor of the Democratic Challenger.

NM-01, which had been a tie, now shows Democrats ahead 50% to 40%.

The hits keep on coming...

[AX10]

11. Should the Democrats win, we will most likely see a large number...

of seats change hands. If there is a real desire for change, the people will oust the incumbents in a rout, just as they did in 1994.

If the Democrats win any of the following, it looks like we will win this range of seats
House: 225-240
Senate: 50-53
Governorships: 28-31

[jackbourassa]

12. AX10, I agree...

But I think we will win A LOT more in the House (your Senate/Governor projections are right on). I suspect we will win at least 30 GOP districts (heck, we're already ahead in 29 and are tied or within MOE in 15 or so more). It's not outside the realm of possibility that we would win FIFTY seats in the House...

Therefore I put my projection of Democrats winning...

235 to 255 seats.

[AX10]

17. I would like the Democrats to have 240+ seats if possible.

It looks like we could get 32 Governorships. That would be the most possible. It looks like we will hold all of our seats in the Senate and have a net gain of 8 seats. Arizona is now in play, that's why I am saying that 8 seats is possible.

[samsingh]

20. encouraging news

we need another 1 or 2 Senate seats to be safe. leiberman is going to join the gop if he wins.

[jackbourassa]

22. ELECTION UPDATE!!!!!!!!!

Democrats now lead in THIRTY Republican-held districts...

As I previously updated, Democrats have picked up the lead in two previously tied districts (according to this weeks Zogby/Reuters poll):

CT-04 (held by Christopher Shays), where Dems lead by + 5%

NM-01 (held by Heather Wilson), where Dems now lead by + 10%.

Well there's another one to add to the list. Embattled Republican Congressman, Tom Reynolds of NY-26 is officially on the list (previously his race had been in the TIED category)...he trails his opponent Jack Davis by 5%, according to SurveyUSA.

NY-26 (Survey USA +/- 3.5%)

Jack Davis (Dem.) 50%
Tom Reynolds (Inc. Rep.) 45%
Undecided 5%

This means we officially LEAD in twice as many districts than we need to take over the House of Representatives.

So we're up to THIRTY now bitches with another dozen or more tied or within the margin of error, spread the word!

[jackbourassa]

24. ANOTHER UPDATE!!!

We're up to THIRTY-ONE!!!

Kansas-04

Democrat 56%
Republican 42%

Things are getting curiouser and curiouser!