Junkie alert: The new Zogby showing the OH Senate race "tied" is flawed

[farmbo]

A new Zogby poll purports to show the Ohio race tied at 41% Brown 41% Dewine. This runs contrary to a half dozen other polls showing Brown ahead by 4% to 7%.

What gives? See this email from the Brown campaign:

http://elections.us.reuters.com/...

We do not dispute this is a tight race, but we do not think the race
is tightening. Here are a couple reasons why:

It is the first time Zogby has polled this race using a telephone
survey (previous surveys were internet polls). The results are within
the margin of error in other surveys that show us ahead.

Zogby over-polled Republicans. The survey polled 601 likely
voters, 35% Democrats and 40% Republicans. Party registration and
election forecasts in Ohio show Democrats and Republicans roughly equal.

This is the 17th straight public poll where DeWine has not shown a
lead

http://pollster.com/...

The last time DeWine was ahead was in a June 20 Rasmussen survey.
The latest Rasmussen poll released yesterday has Brown leading DeWine
49% to 41%.

DeWine's reelect numbers in the Zogby poll are terrible:
Does DeWine Deserve Re-Election?
Yes, re-elect 31%
No, someone new 53

These numbers reveal that DeWine is in big trouble for a Republican
incumbent at a time when voters are clearly tired of the status quo.

Here are the details of the Zogby Reuters Poll excerpted from the
Hotline:

A Zogby Int'l poll; conducted 9/25-10/2 for Reuters; surveyed 601
LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/5). Tested: Sen. Mike
DeWine (R) and Rep. Sherrod Brown (D). Party ID breakdown: 35%D, 40%
R, 25%I/O.

General Election Matchup
Brown 41%
DeWine 41
Other/undec 18

Fav/Unfav
DeWine 50%/38%

Brown 43 /20
Does DeWine Deserve Re-Election?
Yes, re-elect 31%
No, someone new 53
<snip>

(phew!)

[redqueen]

1. Think they'll still try to steal it?

I do.

I'm taking Nov 7 off to work at the polls... if I lived in a competitive race I might end up taking the 8th off to protest... LOUDLY!

[AndyTiedye]

3. It's OHIO! OF COURSE They Intend to Steal It

They are oversampling Republicans to allow for vote suppression and theft.

[redqueen]

6. Think Ohioans have had enough?

Will they take it with a grumble grumble, like last time?

[9119495]

2. Agreed. In IA-1, Bruce Braley has been up 7-13% but

the latest Zogby poll has mike asshole whalen up by about 13%. Whalen went negative but it could not have changed that much.

[INdemo]

4. Rove put the word out

Slimebaugh and Insanity said the Repukes are making comeback..So Zogby got the same fax from Rove....They said the Ohio race was tied also...

[LiberalArkie]

5. Over Polled Repubs and Brown went down.... That says a lot