Who here believes this is the real deal, i.e., N. Korea, or a

[babylonsister]

well orchestrated distraction?

[lapfog_1]

1. Why is it an either/or choice,

Bushco has constantly pissed off the NKs, getting them to sign a non-proliferation treaty and
then cuttingly off their access to foreign currency markets... getting a South Korean named as the
new UN Chief, refusing to negotiate with them 1 on 1.

So if they have a chance to "rock the boat" with an underground test, why not take it?

And Bushco thinks this is good for him politically (get Foley off the front page, so to speak).

So, would Bushco let it happen? Sure. Would Kim Il Jong want to tweak everyones nose (especially
the Japanese and South Koreans)? Sure.

Mission accomplished.

[pampango]

18. Kim is an even bigger jerk than Bush.

Kim has perfected the technique of starving his people and running his economy into the ground, while developing some really cool weapons that make him a "player" on the world scene. As much as Bush tries to hurt our economy and the working class and stifle dissent, he can only marvel at the skill of Kim.

I just can't blame any omnipotent being for a dictator that says: "I will explode a nuclear weapon, if you do not meet with me when, where and how I want; you seek the appointment of someone I don't like to be UN Chief; you make me mad after I sign a non-proliferation treaty so that I ignore it in record time AND I will blame it all on you."

[hsher]

2. Real

www.yourmorningleibowitz.blogspot.com
The Daily Show as a comic strip

[krispos42]

3. Real. USGS showing a 4.2 in N. Korea at the right time.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/ustqab.php



<edit: added links>

[babylonsister]

4. Huh? Are you talking about an earthquake or what?

Please elaborate, and thanks.

[krispos42]

7. From what I've read...

N. Korea gave China a 20-minute warning a little after 10am local time. The 'quake' was at 10:35am local time, and consistant with about a 2-kiloton detonation.

Damn, this could suck like a black hole.

I'm really really glad Bush was really hell-bent on destroying Iranian facilities that might have a nuke in 2012 and totally oblivious to the rogue nation that was already making them.

[babylonsister]

9. I'm elated that we have any rethug at the helm - not. What inspired

this, I wonder?

[Ediacara]

10. Where have you read it was a 2kt detonation?

I did a rather quick calculation (elaborated on in this thread) coming up with the same number, but I'd love to see if that's what the USGS, media, etc is reporting.

[krispos42]

11. Wow, you did actual math?

I just noticed the link in the original thread that lead to this web page:

http://www.english.ucla.edu/faculty/kelly/kellyearthquakescale.htm

[Ediacara]

13. Yes, several different times backwards and forwards

(DinoBoy hates logrithms)

I'm glad that it looks as though I was in the ballpark.

[krispos42]

14. Mmmmm.... logs (drool). Break out the slide rules!

Yeah, apparently you're in the ballpark. It's only a 'tactical' nuke, but 2 kt is 2 kt too many.

[rumpel]

8. because it was an underground test

the seismograph detected the explosion

http://www.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/index.html

South Korea's presidential spokesman says an earth tremor of magnitude 3.5 to 3.7 was detected in Hwadae county in the North Korean province of Hamgyong Bukdo at 10:35 a.m. on Monday.

The spokesman Yun Tae Young said the tremor was reported to President Roh Moo Hyun. He said the president was holding an emergency meeting of Cabinet ministers in charge of security affairs.

[rumpel]

5. Unfortunately real

bush has no clue about how to deal with NK - so he ignores, dismisses, belittles
sticks his head in sand -

result: Japan is in panic

[Pachamama]

6. Kim Il Jong just punked everyone....

That's what I think....

:kick:

[longship]

12. This is something that cannot be orchestrated, or faked.

Seismic stations all over the world would pick up the nuke explosion signature.
This can't be faked with every single University physics department on the planet pouring over their seismic data.

[truthisfreedom]

16. so it's IMPOSSIBLE that it was simply a huge pile of TNT buried under

the ground?

signature schmignature. it could have been any kind of explosives, just a lot of them.

[longship]

19. Ignorance will not help you here.

A nuke blast has a very specific seismic signature which is entirely different from "a huge pile of TNT". That's how the world's countries police nuclear poliferation. When somebody explodes a nuke, it *cannot* be hidden. That also means that when a country wants people to think they have exploded a nuke, they actually have to explode a nuke.

The seismic signature is unique to nuke blasts and is impossible to "fake". This is a physics thing.

So, yes. Signature schmignature. If the seismic signature indicates a nuke, it could *not* have been any other kind of explosion. No amount of hand-waving will change that.

on edit: This signature is why the world knew that an earlier NK blast was *not* nuclear.

You can even look at the seismic data from decades of nuclear tests, if you want to.

[sofa king]

15. I think it can be considered orchestrated.

First of all, there is no doubt that Kim Jong Il did this because of a carefully orchestrated campaign of isolation, non-negotiation and insult on the part of the Bush Administration against North Korea. He wouldn't have the bomb had the Bush Administration not pursued that policy in the first place, and he wouldn't have the oppotunity to test such a weapon with impunity without US distractions elsewhere around the world.

Second, the test could be a warning in response to US mobilization. For example, if the readers at DU know that a huge chunk of the US Navy deployed nine days ago, that goofy Godzilla fan knows it, too. That could be an excellent reason to perform the test now--to forestall a potential surprise American attack. Notice that it doesn't matter whether or not the US actually plans to do such a thing, it only matters whether the nutjob in charge thinks it might be possible.

Third, it remains to be seen where the Navy is going (my guess: Khuzestan), but it wouldn't surprise anyone here if the Bush Administration is trying to start another war somewhere in order to swing the midterm elections. If Iran and North Korea really are playing in the same sandbox together, then NK's test might properly be viewed as part of the soon-to-be Iranian crisis, which is being carefully nurtured by the United States.

Fourth, who wouldn't wish to see your enemy governed by criminally corrupt vultures more interested in stealing their own citizens' wealth than fighting you? Would keeping that status quo be worth testing a nuke that you probably need to test anyway, at a time which helps your incompetent enemy retain power, the enemy who so graciously gave you the time and opportunity to develop your bomb in the first place?

Consider the one question Chester Nimitz asked when he was informed that the U.S. had a chance to assassinate Admiral Yammamoto Isoroku in 1943: "If we get him, can they replace him with someone better?" In that case, the answer was "no." The enemies of the United States have the opposite problem. Right now, practically any of our 300 million citizens would be a better President than George W. Bush. Therefore the enemies of this nation have a great interest in keeping the Bush Administration in power and capable of continuing its sterling job of fucking everything up.

[sandnsea]

17. They announced they had nukes 3 years ago

Several times they've announced they already had nukes. It's kind of amazing to me that nobody gets upset over this Administration getting everyone into a tailspin over N Korea's nukes, when it appears now that N Korea never had them.

So do I believe 100% that they have them now? Not really.

We have to consider the worst is possible, but without absolute confirmation, proceed with extreme caution. We can't afford another war.

[demo dutch]

20. It's the real deal. I spells more trouble for the admin. Afterall

they've done nothing to solve it!