Tester’s Lead May Be Insurmountable

[stevedeshazer]

http://www.newwest.net/index.php/citjo/article/testers_lead_may_be_insurmountable/C37/L37/

This is an excellent breakdown of the Jon Tester - Conrad Burns Senate race in Montana. It's a microcosm of the Senate race in general, but more importantly it is a pickup Democratic Senate seat!

<snip>

According to a October 2nd article by the Missoulian, Jon Tester holds a 7 point lead over Conrad Burns. In fact, Tester will likely win the Montana Senatorial Election by a larger margin.

To understand this, consider the 2006 Primary Election. In a poll taken two weeks before the primary election, John Morrison lead Jon Tester 42 to 41%. Yet, in the Primary Election, Jon Tester beat Morrison with support of 60% to Morrison's 36%.

I showed this to the students in an Introductory Statistics class that I taught. Using some laws of probability, it was found that the probability of selecting a sample where only 42% of respondents supported Tester from a population where 60% of voters support Tester was less than 1 in 10,000. The students and I worked to explain how such a result could happen.

more at link

[habitual]

1. some good points in there...thanx for the link n/t

[sonias]

2. What an inspiration this is

Jon Tester, common man, winning a Senate seat from the entrenched corrupt GOP power machine. That would be so sweet.

Sonia

[stevedeshazer]

3. I really like this guy

I sure hope he wins.

[snowbear]

4. ~~Awesome!~~

I read about one of the debates where Burns says: "Look, I've been a resident of Montana for.. blah, blah, blah...."

And Tester responds back with, "What's your point? ....I've been a resident of Montana since the day I was born"

Seeing as Burns was born in Missouri and Tester was born in Havre, Montana.. it was just another in the line-up of dumb things Conrad Burns has said in his campaign..

[Straight Shooter]

5. I definitely like Jon Tester. He's a real straight shooter.

:7

[Ediacara]

6. That's an interesting read

I was simply astonished by the primary results, but what this author doesn't take into consideration is that Morrison admitted to an affair with the wife of a client at about the same moment that the last primary polls were taken, which probably skewed the results. I have no doubt that Tester will win, but I think it'll be in the 55/45 range and not the blowout the author is predicting.

[EST]

7. Missing from an otherwise terrific report is a suggestion, or a

group of them, as to what should be done to bring their polling methods in line with reality. Interesting article from a point of view rarely seen.

[ISUGRADIA]

8. Another item to factor in is timing

A poll taken 2 weeks out reflects the opinion of the time. Two weeks is a long time in politics and with 17% undecided and margain of error factored in the eventual results were not unreasonable.