Top 15 Governor's races most likely to change parties (Ohio "is over"!)

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
In Governors Races, Dems Still Hold Stronger Hand

The top 5 governors races on today's Line are open-seat contests where the current officeholder is a Republican. Should Democrats win these five races and lose no others this cycle, the party would control 27 governorships nationwide to 23 for Republicans....

Remember that the No. 1 ranked race is most likely to switch parties....

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4. Massachusetts: Former Assistant U.S. Attorney General Deval Patrick's (D) surprisingly strong primary victory puts Democrats in very good position to win back the governor's office for the first time since 1990. A poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 19 primary showed Patrick with a 25-point lead over Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R). Patrick has since been forced to apologize for not fully disclosing his advocacy on behalf of a convicted rapist, a story that should bring down those sky-high numbers somewhat. But barring some sort of collapse on Patrick's part, this is a race he should win. (Previous ranking: 5)

3. Colorado: We've been waiting for some signs of life from Rep. Bob Beauprez's (R) campaigns for months now. Beauprez is slugging away at former Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter (D) over his record on immigration, but that issue has failed to substantially close the gap between the two men. A Mason-Dixon poll released recently had Ritter with a 50 percent to 35 percent lead over Beauprez. As troubling for Republicans, Ritter had a healthy 46 percent to 32 percent favorable/unfavorable score while Beauprez stood at 32 favorable/40 unfavorable. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Ohio: This one is over. No matter what Secretary of State Ken Blackwell (R) and his Republican allies throw at Rep. Ted Strickland (D), nothing seems to stick. Outgoing GOP Gov. Bob Taft's ethical problems are the prime reason for this teflon effect, as voters have made up their minds that Republicans have sacrificed the public trust and it's time to give Democrats a chance. Strickland enters the final stretch with $4 million more than Blackwell to spend on the race and a double-digit lead in the polls. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. New York: Former Assemblyman John Faso (R) has as much chance of beating state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (D) as the New York Yankees have of winning the World Series this year. As in, none. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/10/the_governors_line.html#more