Larry Sabato: "Warner was maybe 'the strongest' Democratic candidate"

[Bucky]

alternate headline: Smart Guy Offers Inconsequential Analysis: flim at 11.

Analyst says Warner's decision leaves Democrats in a bind

A tragedy for the Democratic party" is how one analyst sums up Mark Warner's decision against running for president in 2008.

Larry Sabato (SA'-buh-toh) of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics believes Warner was "one of the strongest, if not the strongest" candidates the Democrats had. He thinks Virginia's former governor could have been the main challenger to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is considered by many pundits to be the front-runner.

Warner's decision has the Democrats in a bind, the way Sabato sees it. He says that while a lot of candidates are running, few are electable come November 2008. And Sabato warns if the Democrats don't find a centrist candidate, they may watch a third straight presidential election go to the Republicans.

Sorry, Larry, no sale. In 1976 our strongest candidates were Ted Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey. In 1960 our strongest candidate was LBJ. In 1992 our strongest candidate was Mario Cuomo. Democrats never win with our supposedly stongest candidate. Warner had a nice sales pitch and looked like good candidate, but he wasn't the only game in town. What a maroon.

[Demeter]

1. I Doubt He Had 2% Name Recognition

and that was probably confusion with the other Warner, Elizabeth Taylor's ex.

[AlCzervik]

6. you're right, half the people in this country don't who the VP is never

mind Warner.

[Cha]

12. Right..idiot that I am when I saw

the headline the other day on DU that said "warner decides not to run for president"..I thought john warner wasn't gonna run.

[Jim Sagle]

2. Sabato's a CONCERN troll. He's CONCERNED that the Dems won't

run the best candidate. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[LibDemAlways]

3. If he chooses to run, Gore will be

our strongest candidate. Hillary is too polarizing. Freepers would crawl out from under many a rock to vote against her. Gore won once. He could win again.

[demnan]

4. Nonsense

I don't know who our strongest candidate will be, but Warner is a young man and had his reasons not to give it a go this time. He'll do well in a VP or cabinent post until his time to shine.

[Demoiselle]

9. He is young. He has time...(eom)

[Guaranteed]

5. "Flim" is right. Flim flam.

Warner was just more of the same. We need a candidate with some pizazz.

[Bucky]

34. Thank you for catching that. I work hard on my puns.

Actually, I think Warner has plenty of pizazz. When he speaks his charisma is near overwhelming--something that does not come across in looking at his pictures or just reading about him. The flim flam I alluded to was the "Well, the Democrats are fucked now" analysis from Sabato--a Virginia based moderate who I suspect was in love with Warner and is probably a moderate Democrat (he recently has been involved in outing Senator Macaca over his n-word habits to help Webb).

[burythehatchet]

7. how comical

not a snoball's chance in hell.

[Red Zelda]

8. This just in:

Settle down. This guy was a nobody.

[Catchawave]

20. Here:

http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/wh08/

Well?

[FrenchieCat]

33. Well, he's somebody alright.....here

http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/



Well? :hi:

[Catchawave]

39. Love NLS !

Thanks for promoting him :hi:

P.S. He "broke" the Macaca story!

[Cha]

10. Yeah, a fucking "tragedy" all right..

Gimme a break! Why isn't mark warner running anyway?

[Bucky]

22. Why mark warner isn't running

http://radaronline.com/exclusives/2006/10/mark-warners-clinto-problem.php

[Cha]

24. If this is true...WOW!

I was already applauding him for his decision to have "a real life". :)

[Bucky]

28. Caveat: note that the blog uses only anonymous sources

It adds up; it answers unasked questions about Warner's sudden drop out. But it is far far from being confirmed truth.

[Cha]

35. I always use the caveats until something

is pretty well indisputable.

[greeneyedboy]

11. another concern troll "expert" peddling b.s. to the media. next!

[FrenchieCat]

13. What to do with all of these "Pundit political conventional Wisdom"?

:hurts: ????

Saba-got-to-go and that "Fix" it guy are getting on my godamm nerves!

[Texas_Kat]

27. It constantly amazes me how 'conventional wisdom' the DC pundits are

and Sabato (who else has a blog created to just refute/correct ole' Larry--http://notlarrysabato.typepad.com/).

All they seem to do is pass on the gossip and/or conventional wisdom they're told by other peope inside the beltway who don't have a clue either.

This is the same mindset that bought into the 'Bush is a real man" and "The Iraq War is justified" crap-ola that's sold us all down the river before.

I've had it with these bozos.....

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

14. I Guess There's No Hope For Us In '08 Now

Yeah, like I'm real depressed that Warner isn't running.

NEXT!!

[Bucky]

15. Sabato makes more sense when he sticks to numbers. Look at his balls

From the Sabato Crystal Ball, Larry offers the following encouraging crystal balls to gaze at:

The Brutal B (for "Bottom Line")

2006 Senate Outlook Summary: The Brutal B, October 2006: +3 to +6 Democrats
--only Menendez is in a toss up race, while GOPers Talent, DeWine, & Chaffee are in toss ups (along with Frist's old seat a toss up) and Burns and Santorum are favored to lose.


2006 House Outlook Summary: The Brutal B, October 2006: +18 to +22 Democrats
--all 13 Dem seats labeled "in play" are safe or leaning Dem, while 27 GOP seats are either toss ups or are leaning Democratic at this time.

[Horse with no Name]

16. Color me concerned, too.

YAWN.

[marmar]

17. I hope Mr. Sabato enjoyed his weekend in Amsterdam...

Warner has little name recognition, and he's about as exciting as Wonder bread.

[liberalmuse]

18. Who is this Mark Warner guy?

I've never even heard of him!

[Eric J in MN]

25. He was governor of VA for one term.

VA doesn't allow governors to serve consecutive terms.

[Rowdyboy]

19. Warner would have been a solid candidate, but this helps narrow the field

which is a very good thing. Clinton, Kerry, and Edwards have serious money. Feingold, Clark, Richardson, Bayh, and Biden all have potential to emerge.

I think Kerry drops out after NH, leaving Clinton, Edwards and Feingold as the three serious candidates. Personally, I'd back Edwards, then Feingold, then Clinton.

I disagree about our strongest candidate in 1976. That year Jimmy Carter bear Mo Udall of Arizona, one of "the best presidents America never had".



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mo_Udall

[Disturbed]

21. Candidates

John Kerry
John Edwards
Wes Clark
Joe Biden

Those are the Candidates so far.

Senator Clinton has not declared and she might not do so.

[Bucky]

23. For that matter, Clark, Edwards, and Kerry have all not declared either

Good gravy, people, it's 6-10 months before people have to start declaring. Far as I know, only Biden has said he's definitely in. There could be (and probably will be) more surprises before we get our final line up.

[Rowdyboy]

32. Actually, no one has declared so far....

Biden has unofficially announced, Kerry and Edwards are near certain, and Clark is a definite "maybe", but no one has officially announced a 2008 presidential candidacy.

I'm not at all sure Senator Clinton will run, but, if she does, I'll wish her well. That doesn't mean I support her, just that I think she deserves a chance just like anyone else. If she gets a majority of Democratic votes, then she's the nominee. I doubt that will happen, but thats just me.

[hatrack]

26. Hmmm . . . wasn't there some guy with a movie out recently?

Shore? Gabor? Something like that . . .

Sorry, Larry, guess again.

[WCGreen]

29. Larry Sabato is a PAt Robertson Tool......

[onenote]

36. link?

[tinfoilinfor2005]

30. Saw him at a convention last Dec. He was as exciting as watching

paint dry.

Edwards and Obama, co-speakers, blew him off the map.

[leesa]

31. Yeah. I wanted a guy who said, "Let's not discuss how the war started"

"Let's just move on" That's the kind of guy I want in there. Not.

[onenote]

37. Warner might have been a strong candidate, but it was too early to say

Could Warner have evolved into "one of" the strongest Democratic candidates? I think so, but he wasn't that yet and now he won't be. I will say this, however: earlier this week I was discussing the elections with a number of current and former repub staffers (including a former McCain staffer) and they all thought that a Warner-Obama ticket would give the repubs fits in 2008. Personally, I don't know that is true, but it was interesting that they thought so...

[Mass]

38. More of DC conventionnal wisdom. It has been proven false so

often that it is surprising people still listen.