GOP Still Hopes for a Pickup in an Unlikely Place — Vermont

[ProSense]

October 13, 2006

GOP Still Hopes for a Pickup in an Unlikely Place — Vermont

By Matthew Spieler

Snip...

Yet despite the backing she has received from party strategists in her race with Democratic state Senate President Peter Welch, Rainville has stayed in serious competition not by embracing the national Republicans’ mainly conservative agenda, but by distancing herself from Bush and the rest of the GOP leadership.

Rainville has fashioned a politically moderate platform, pointing to her support for environmental protection and abortion rights. This appears a sensible strategy in a contest in which she is seeking to succeed one of the most liberal members of Congress, Independent Bernard Sanders, who is a strong favorite to win the state’s open Senate seat after dominating his recent House contests.

It also is the only feasible strategy these days for a Republican who wants to win major statewide office in Vermont.

But a recent NRCC ad in support of Rainville, which sought to underscore her centrist credentials, raised the hackles of one of the state’s current political icons: retiring three-term Independent Sen. James M. Jeffords, whom Sanders is running to succeed.

Snip...

On Oct. 9, Jeffords sent a letter to New York Republican Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds,who chairs the NRCC, requesting that the committee “cease running the advertisement immediately.”

Rainville is “a talented leader,” said Jeffords. But Jeffords, who has aligned with Senate Democrats since his party switch in June 2001, reiterated his endorsement of Democrat Welch, who he said “is a better choice for Vermont.”

GOP more...

[Nite Owl]

1. But Welch is leading

isn't he?

[DaveinMD]

2. Yes

He's been pulling away in the last couple of weeks.

[Nite Owl]

3. Thanks, I just couldn't

imagine losing a seat especially in VT.

[ProSense]

4. Distancing from the GOP is the only way they can stay in the race. Polls:

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/election_tags/vt_at_large

[cali]

5. They can keep hoping but they're not going to get this seat.

I wouldn't have been able to make that statement with any confidence a couple of weeks ago, but I feel safe making it now. Peter Welch is a great guy, but he's not terribly exciting. He's run twice for statewide office before, and lost. This time though, he'll pull it off, in large part, I think, due to to Bernie's immense popularity. Even here in the Northeast Kingdom, the most conservative part of the state, Bernie's support is impressive. The Senate race is the one generating excitement and getting people out to vote. Vermonters- a strong majority of us- really want to see Bernie in the Senate. This helps Peter, quite a bit.

[Ignacio Upton]

6. Gary Trauner and Larry Grant have better chances of winning in WY and ID

than Rainville has of winning in VT.