Charlie Cook's National Overview: Category 5 Hurricane Heads for House GOP

[Pirate Smile]

Category 5 Hurricane Heads for House GOP

Let's get the disclaimer out of the way: there are 25 days between now and the November 7 election and things could well change, making what follows obsolete.

That said, this is without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974. I think a 30-seat gain today for Democrats is more likely to occur than a 15-seat gain, the minimum that would tip the majority. The chances of that number going higher are also strong, unless something occurs that fundamentally changes the dynamic of this election. This is what Republican strategists' nightmares look like.

Whether one looks at national or district-level polling data, or a survey like the new Democracy Corps survey that covered the 49 most vulnerable GOP districts, the conclusion remains the same: it is very ugly for Republicans.

On a conference call today, James Carville suggested that the Democratic Party should expand beyond just the top targeted races. He believes the party should help fund previously ignored Democratic challengers in second- and third-tier districts--the next 30 to 50 Republican-held seats--to fully capitalize on this environment and help those candidates maximize their chances of winning. Carville went as far as to suggest Democrats go to the bank and borrow $5 million. If I were them, I'd make it $10 million and put $500,000 each of these 20 districts.

http://cookpolitical.com/overview/default.php

The last national overview that Charlie Cook did was on May 6,2006.

This isn't a call to get overconfident. It is a call to double the battle.

Cook is one of the most respected political analysts so I'm sure this is going to get a lot of chatter from the pundit class.

What do you think - should we borrow more money so we can support more candidates - candidates that were never expected to actually be in competitive races?

edit to add - Forget Carville (he isn't the point), Cook himself recommends Democrats borrow money to support more races. Should we do that?

He mentions the Democracy Corp. poll but he says its results are the same as other national or district-level polling data - "Whether one looks at national or district-level polling data, or a survey like the new Democracy Corps survey that covered the 49 most vulnerable GOP districts, the conclusion remains the same: it is very ugly for Republicans."

[Greeby]

1. Best way to win: Put duct tape over Carville's mouth on election night

So he doesn't go blabbing to his wife :eyes:

[niallmac]

2. Theres always FEMA

Federal Election Manipulation Asshats.

[The Backlash Cometh]

27. Caller ID block his phone. Do America a favor.

[TacticalPeek]

3. K&R

:kick: :kick: :kick: :kick: :kick:

[Eurobabe]

4. This line makes me shudder: "unless something occurs that fundamentally

changes the dynamics of this election."

Who lays awake at night scheming this one? Cheney, Rove, ??

[a kennedy]

6. I know, all this Dem's win big in both House and Senate makes me

terribly, terribly nervous. Will do my part to make the Dem's win big, but sheesh.......are we counting our chickens to early???

[itsrobert]

5. Just like Katrina, Bush is out to lunch as Cat bears down on Repubs

LOL

[Mark E. Smith]

7. So where's the GOP's October Surprise?

Starting to look like they have absolutely nothing.

Borrow the money, roll the dice.

[anitar1]

57. I think their surprise is starting it with Iran , the last week in Oct.

[JTFrog]

64. that is no joke...

Very few people realize the number of ships and forces that are positioned to attack right now. Obviously Shrub is only interested in starting the attack... just like Iraq, he could care less about "winning" or an "exit strategy". His job is to secure the Republican's wealth and power and has nothing to do with protecting the American people.

[madfloridian]

8. Carville...not again. A conference call? With whom?

Someone in another thread here today told me that Carville was not relevant anymore. With whom was the conference call held. Betcha sweet bippy the DNC was not in on it.

And what the hell does he mean by this statement:

"On a conference call today, James Carville suggested that the Democratic Party should expand beyond just the top targeted races. He believes the party should help fund previously ignored Democratic challengers in second- and third-tier districts--the next 30 to 50 Republican-held seats--to fully capitalize on this environment and help those candidates maximize their chances of winning. Carville went as far as to suggest Democrats go to the bank and borrow $5 million. If I were them, I'd make it $10 million and put $500,000 each of these 20 districts."

Carville, go back and meddle in Venezuela or something.

UH..uh...James Carville...there's a guy named Howard Dean whom you called crazy all the time on Crossfire...and guess what...he thought of that strategy before you did.

Please ....go...away.

[The Magistrate]

15. Mr. Carville Is Quite Right Here, Ma'am

Whoever it was he was talking with. Such an infusion of funds would upset the enemy's preconceptions and plans for the closing days of the campaign, and go a long way towards securing the potential gains spread before us. Defeat, even rout, of a foe, is of little benefit if it is not exploited energetically. This is a situation in which everything that can be got to hand must be flung into the breach....

"It is only necessary to know where the enemy is, and that you mean to attack him: what the enemy intends is of no consequence."

[madfloridian]

17. I agree. He was right.

He is advocating going for a broader range of races...like someone else has. Dean had that thought before him.

I am sorry, but I have such contempt for him. I think after what Woodward has revealed about the stunt he pulled on Kerry...I think after all the insults he had made to Dean and to other good Democrats..that he and Mary should just fade away.

I am not against what Charlie Cook is saying...I just hate that Carville is still so involved.

It does not bode well for us.

[madfloridian]

28. In fact, Magistrate..look what I found at Kos. Carville is pretty obvious

He really approves of Dean's strategy. He just doesn't want us to know it.

I just saw this, haven't been to Kos in a day or so as some You Tube thing was gumming up the words badly, hard to navigate.

Anyway, read this.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/14/102654/25

[The Magistrate]

30. It Pains Me To Disagree A Little, Ma'am

As you may recall my frequently commenting in approval of Gov. Dean's course as the necessary strategy for the long term health and success of the Party. But Mr. Carville is refering to giving a wider range of races heavy financial backing from the Party in the closing days of the campaign, which is something quite distinct from building Party organization in every state. He is responding to indications from the field that a much greater number of races are meeting the criteria normally employed to determine what races should be targetted for heavy support than was expected, or is usual, and urging that all be backed, even if the funds must be scrounged up on tick to do it. This happy situation owes in part both to Gov. Dean's organizational groundwork, and to Rep. Emmanuel's shrewd guidance in slating and line for campaigns, but probably owes more to serendipitous events beyond the control of either man, most noteably the Foley affair, which has crystallized a very widespread but previously inchoate mood of discontent and distrust into something sharp and hard. There is little point to internal sniping at this juncture, for things do seem to be going our way, and credits can be claimed when achievemenmts are actually present easily enough....

"I would rather have a general who is lucky than a general who is good."

[madfloridian]

33. Do I need a sarcasm tag? I don't think so.

Why is Carville advising our party on a conference call with other strategists after Woodward's damning revelation which he has yet to respond to.

Carville needs to respond or step aside.

Is there a label for making a joke about something which could have cost Kerry the election? Sir? Maybe I should just put "joke" and let it go at that.

[The Magistrate]

34. Who Knows Who The Call Was To, Ma'am

It could have been to journalists. There is not enough information in the comment cited for any conclusion. Whatever Woodward's claim may amount to, Mr. Carville remains a shrewd student of the political scene, and a skilled and forceful strategist, whose advice is worth having.

[madfloridian]

36. Oh, my, there is most certainly enough information...

to keep him from getting so deeply involved in party stuff.

There are many forms of the State of Denial.

Carville is no god.

[Bucky]

61. Of course Carville isn't a god; But keep in mind the scoop on Carville...

...came from Woodward, the guy who blows up then blows down Bush for the Establishment. Any Democrat Woodward takes a shot at has a little more street cred in my book. Carville's a Democrat and wants his side to win. He wants us to win. The worse you can complain about him is that he has occasionally employed weak tactics. He's also scored more than a few victories for the good guys.

[OzarkDem]

40. Dean has been putting money into more races as they open up

Someone had a link a couple of weeks ago to a Dean quote about how the party is scrambling to put money in all the key races that have suddenly become competitive. Carville isn't telling Dean anything new, Dean is already doing it.

[OzarkDem]

39. Nice of him to say so

now that it looks like the 50 state strategy is working and there is a market for Dem consultants again. Sorry, but I think Carville is just positioning himself to cash in.

[OzarkDem]

38. Dean is working on it

as are lots of other Dems. The Dems who decided to go out and rebuild the party instead of clamming up and hanging out with the GOP for the last 6 years.

Now that Dems prospects are looking good, thanks to those who didn't give up and turned the party around to work at the grassroots level again, the Beltway Dems are now circling around licking their chops, pretending to offer advice so they can cash in again.

No thanks. Carville and friends are nothing more than fair weather Dems who don't have any good ideas to share.

[elperromagico]

9. I am cautiously optimistic.

What harm would it do to take a chance on some more seats?

Let's look at an investment in 30 or 50 more seats as an investment not just in this election but in future elections. If we win them this time, great. If we can get them close this time, we may be in a position to win them in '08. At the very least, we can figure out which districts are worth fighting for in '08.

[DeepModem Mom]

10. We should borrow the money. I wonder if our leaders are on this.

If Carville can get them to do it, more power to him.

[madfloridian]

11. Dean is funding many of them....

I believe the word from the DNC today was they had supported candidates to the tune of 20 to 25 million just from the DNC. They are upping what they are giving to the DSCC and the DCCC.

Carville seems totally unaware that there is such a thing as the 50 state strategy.

The DCCC is still in debt I believe, but the others are not.

I would love to know who was in on the conference call. Just strategists?

[DeepModem Mom]

19. I think I may have read in another thread that the press was in.

This worries me as jinxing -- but the Repubs always act as it they're going to steamroll to victory, so it's probably the right strategy.

[saracat]

42. Dean is NOT funding all that many races!

In Arizona they just pulled money out of our races even though Harry Mitchell is leading against JD Hayworth. They are taking money away from Jim Pederson's Senate race even though he is now only 6 points behind.The DNC has hired a lot of kids who are doing very little. It is exactly the same as election 2004 .Nothing has improved .Sorry about that and Carville is right on.We have a terrific congressional candidate in Az Cd3 Herb Paine who could take out John Shadegg and he has gotten NOTHING in spite of repeated requests.They are still "targeting " the same old races and hiring the same idiots.I liked Dean but nothing has changed. And the so called 50 state strategy is nonsense. I can tell you this , none of our candidates are getting any help and the so called "coordinated campaign" is as "uncoordinated" as ever.It doesn't do any good for Howard Dean to raise money if he doesn't know how to spend it properly.They should hire people who are experienced and know how to work a campaign.And they are paying a lot of these people a fortune.I don't consider a minimum of $5000 a month beer change. That is what the DNC told me the campaigns were expected to pay these people .I questioned how candidates in a clean elections state were expected to pay that.They really didn't have an answer.They just said that was what the DNC defined as a "livable " wage! The DNC called me and asked for money recently. I told them to take me off their list as I have never yet seen them put the money to good use and they have never given a nickle to a candidate in my district.I am done. No more money to the DNC.I give directly to the candidates!

[madfloridian]

43. Sounds like your state has problems at state level, just like Florida.

That is NOT the DNC taking money from Pederson, last I read that was Rahm's DCCC.

I did not think you would confuse the two groups.

[madfloridian]

44. BTW did you read my post...giving more the DSCC and the DCCC

I think you are angry at the wrong person right now.

[saracat]

46. All the employees we have are funded by the DNC.

[Sensitivity]

12. We should be throwing everything into the battle. No holding back for 2008

party building goals. Nothing succeeds like success.

[madfloridian]

13. Baloney.

I disagree on that. Not hold back for 08, but hold back for providing the states with what they need.

We can't just pick a few anymore...build the structure everywhere and we won't run into this so much later. It will benefit everyone.

[Pirate Smile]

14. Madfloridian, I did not take this as an attack on Howard in any way.

Cook has supported Dean's 50 State Strategy.

This Time, Dean's Right

By Charlie Cook
© National Journal
March 11, 2006

-snip-
The primary responsibility of the DNC is not to win House, Senate, gubernatorial, or state legislative races, but to build and sustain a national party and to oversee the presidential conventions and nomination process. The same is true of the Republican National Committee. No other entities within the two major parties are charged with those missions.

-snip-
Dean's view -- that Pelosi, Reid, and their party committees have their jobs and he has his -- is the one that he ought to stick to. He should also resist pressure from interest groups, such as the Congressional Black Caucus, whose members raise very little money for the DCCC even though a Democratic takeover of the House would elevate many black lawmakers to chairmanships.

Howard, stick to your guns.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/column/2006/031106.php

I think it has more to do with the emerging number of competitive races because of Republican's hemorrhaging support AND wanting to take advantage of that situation.

I don't see Cook telling Dean to divert $$$ from the 50 State Strategy to 2006 races or altering those plans in any way.

Do we want to somehow find $$$ to help those candidates that are now (surprisingly) in winnable races without changing Dean's necessary long term strategy? Perhaps the DCCC could take out the loan.

[madfloridian]

16. I did not take it as an attack on Dean. I just disagreed. odd...

you would think that. I really did not take it as an attack at all, just a statement that we had to abandon all other plans for November...and I disagreed.

Salaries must be paid to state directors, etc. Plans have to go on.

I did not take it that way.

Odd you would think so.

[Pirate Smile]

20. I didn't take it as a statement that we had to abandon all other plans for

November.

I guess that is where we interpreted it differently.

[madfloridian]

21. I was not responding to the OP...I was responding to this post.

"We should be throwing everything into the battle. No holding back for 2008 party building goals. Nothing succeeds like success." by Sensitivity.

That is who I disagreed with.

Perhaps we are misunderstanding each other. I think we MUST reserve some for party building, and I said so.

I have no gripe with Charlie Cook, but I detest Carville. If Woodward is right, he should NOT be handling party stuff.

[Pirate Smile]

24. Ahh, gotcha. I agree about the party building and remember the

previous thread on that issue where I piped up in support of Dean's long term strategy.

[Cosmocat]

51. I agree ...

They note in the article that the party should go the bank and borrow money to put some real cash into second and third tier races, and I agree ... Time to pile and, and take advantage of the tide ...

[madfloridian]

18. My gripe here is with Carville, after what Woodward revealed..

about what he and Mary Matalin pulled on Kerry in 2004.

I have no special disagreement with borrowing, but the DCCC is already in debt. I don't know about the others.

The DNC has now donated 20 to 25 million to candidates according to a statement out yesterday. Plus some GOTV stuff.

I have not a gripe with what Charlie Cook does. I am just appalled that Carville is still so involved.

No one else seems to care. In other words, what does a strategist have to do to make people in the party mad enough to say enough of that?

[Pirate Smile]

22. I agree about Carville. His inclusion in the article just muddied the

issue.

Has he said responded to the allegations in the Woodward book?

It is shocking and disgusting. I don't trust Lockhart or McCurry anymore either.

[madfloridian]

23. There has been no response from him. More from TPM Cafe.

This article even gives him the benefit of a doubt...which I do NOT..not any more.

http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2006/oct/07/did_carville_tip_bush_off_to_kerry_strategy_woodward

[C_U_L8R]

25. Poor Grover

Is gonna drown in his own bathwater.

Karma is a one hell of a bitch

[ProSense]

26. Always viewed Cook as the

Morton Kondracke of "non-partisan political analysis". That he includes Carville, is no surprise.

Charles E. Cook, Jr.

Charlie Cook is Publisher of The Cook Political Report, and political analyst for the National Journal Group, where he writes weekly for National Journal magazine and CongressDailyAM. He also writes a regular column for the Washington Quarterly, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and is a political analyst for NBC News.

Widely regarded as one of the nation’s leading authorities on U.S. elections and political trends, Charlie has appeared on the ABC, CBS and NBC evening news programs, as well as on "Good Morning America," the "Today Show," "Nightline," "Meet the Press with Tim Russert," and "This Week…." He has also appeared many times on CNBC, MSNBC, CNN, C-SPAN, CNN and National Public Radio.

Before joining the National Journal Group in June of 1998, Charlie wrote for 12 years a twice-weekly column in Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill. Charlie also served as an election night analyst for CBS in 1990 and 1992, and for NBC in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004.

The New York Times has called Cook, "...one of the best political handicappers in the nation" and noted that The Cook Political Report is "...a newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative," while Bob Schieffer of CBS News has called the Cook Political Report, "the bible of the political community." The Wall Street Journal's Al Hunt once referred to Cook as "the Picasso of election analysis," while David Broder of The Washington Post has written that Charlie Cook is "perhaps the best non-partisan tracker of Congressional races."

Updated January 2005

January 20, 2006

All Venom, All the Time

By Charlie Cook

I am deeply troubled by the tenor of current political discourse in this country. More and more Republicans don’t just disagree with Democrats, they despise them—and vice versa. People don’t just challenge someone’s views—they challenge the other person’s integrity. Enjoyable, informative, and civil discussions between people with different points of view are becoming rare.

The most recent episode to deeply offend me occurred after Supreme Court nominee Samuel Alito’s wife left the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing in tears. An Alito opponent soon asked on a popular liberal Web site, “Do we want a judge who would marry such a weak-willed bitch?”

On the same day, I happened to watch The War Room, a documentary about the 1992 Clinton presidential campaign. In one scene, Clinton strategist James Carville fielded reporters’ questions arising from allegations by conservatives that Clinton had been brainwashed or recruited as a Soviet agent while he backpacked across Europe during college.

There may well be plenty of reasons to oppose Alito’s confirmation or to have opposed Clinton’s candidacy, but aren’t these attacks out of bounds for a civil society?

more...

I don't trust him as far as I can throw him!

[corkhead]

29. Absolutely! MI dist. 7, Sharon Renier is within striking distance

without spending anything against a non incumbent christo-fascist, Walberg. Dems wrongly wrote off this contest, but this idiot does not have name recognition and could be beaten imho, with some help.

[paulk]

31. sounds like a good plan

strike while the iron is hot, and all that.

at this point, anything less than a 30 seat pickup has to be considered a failure. The Democrats are in position to pick up 40, maybe as many as 50 seats.

[ProSense]

32. Why are they saying this now? They should have been raising the

money all along. Who do they want the Democrats to borrow the money from and become beholden to? They should have been out there raising money from supporters and spreading the Democratic Party's message everyday since the beginning of 2006! Ten months is a lot of time to raise $10 million, but they wait until 24 days before the election and suggest borrowing money?

[The Magistrate]

35. The Party Has Been Raising Money To The Best Of Its Ability, Ma'am

For the last two years. Indeed, it has raised larger sums than it usually manages in that time. But more is always useful, and an infusion of funds from outside normal channels could be very valuable just now, as it is something the enemy will not have been counting on in its own plans for a last minute spending blitz.

[ProSense]

37. More is always useful, but time is always helpful!

Why now? They could have made this a special push and raised the money, specifically for this purpose! To suggest 24 days before the election that the Democrats go to a bank and borrow $10 million dollars is a horrible idea IMO.

[Pirate Smile]

45. No one really thought many of these second and third tier races

were going to be so competitive.

Everything appears to be breaking our way.

The point is do we want to give these races the $$$ to get on the air and really fight to win. Is it worth it. It is a risk.

The DNC and DCCC did use their time and resources wisely over the past almost two years. That is why these seats are so competitive. We fielded good candidates and in many more races then we have previously.

[ProSense]

47. "Everything appears to be breaking our way,"

which is probably why Carville picked this moment to speak about something Senator Kerry and few other Democrats have been doing all along.

[Pirate Smile]

49. I don't give a sh#$ about Carville. This isn't about him. It is about

what would be the most effective way for the Democrats to win the most seats without hurting our long term goals of establishing strong state party infrastructures.

That is all I care about.

[ProSense]

50. I don't either! His suggestion that

the Democratic Party borrow $10 million from a bank is suspect! More money is good, but Democrats have been raising money and he seems to want to undercut their efforts, which are ongoing!

[OzarkDem]

41. They have been doing it

Carville is just shooting his mouth off trying to look as though he's giving them advice. Dean and the Dems have been doing this, though without borrowing money.

[janx]

48. Precisely!

;-)

[garybeck]

52. You're forgetting the VOTING MACHINES.

Kerry was projected to win 2 years ago. He smoked Bush in all the dabates and pre-polls. But mysteiously Bush beat all the pre-polls and exit polls. Ken Blackwell fixed Ohio. Any reason it's not going to happen again?

[Name removed]

53. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Independent_Liberal]

54. K&R!

[tired of the right]

55. I would be truly happy if it were much worse than 30 seats.

I am so sick of Republicans running the government that I am very much in favor of a huge Democratic landslide.

[ShaneGR]

56. The party of fiscal responsibility does not borrow money....

Just a point.

[Yukari Yakumo]

58. Add Ney's conviction to the pot...

...and you get one big party of corruption.

Or at least the DNC should portray them as.

The DNC *needs* to go on a advertizing blitz. Target every state, every race (except those where someone is well ahead, like Fienstein's re-elction bid). Leave *nothing* to chance.

[Maryland Liberal]

59. IMPEACHMENT !!!!

GOD Bless James Carville. He is SOOOO right about the climate being in our favor. The Bushies approval rating is below 40 again - the time is CERTAINLY right. PROMISE to impeach Bush - and we will get the 66 DEM senators we need to do it.

[primative1]

62. A Little Faith ...

Just imagine a simple majority.
Once the investigations get underway the votes will come from everywhere, even the remaining GOPsters that will be trying to pull their politcal careers out of the frying pan.
The next two years might actualy be a pleasure to behold.

[Bucky]

60. Bush shouldn't worry about a Cat5 hurricane hitting the GOP. His wall...

of secrecy will stop the flood. And even if it isn't strong enough, I'll bet Pat Robertson is busy praying this hurricane will hit someone else--a guaranteed strategy for success.

[swag]

63. Interesting how closely Cook's estimates agree with Krugman's:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2883649&mesg_id=2883649