Real Clear Politics now predicts a Democratic majority in Senate

[Lasher]

I believe this is the first time RCP has shown that we would win the 6 seats we need to regain control of the Senate if the elections were held today.

Arizona Kyl +9.0%
Connecticut Lieberman +12.4%
Maryland Cardin +9.7%
Michigan Stabenow +13.7%
Minnesota Klobuchar +14.0%
Missouri McCaskill +1.4% *
Montana Tester +5.7% *
New Jersey Menendez +3.9%
Ohio Brown +5.5% *
Pennsylvania Casey +9.8% *
Rhode Island Whitehouse +5.6% *
Tennessee Ford +0.8% *
Virginia Allen +4.6%
Washington Cantwell +9.4%

* Denotes Democratic pickup

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/

[BootinUp]

1. It sucks we can't get VA

And that Tennessee race is scary.

[Cooley Hurd]

2. I don't think the fat lady has sung in VA yet...

VA-SEN: Confirmed: Summons Or Warrant Issued To A "George Felix Allen" In 1974

Could this be related to the hate crime Allen is accused of perpetrating (the deer-head-in-the-black-family's-mailbox)?

[Lasher]

3. Virginia Democrats should be proud no matter how this turns out

Here's a graph from Electoral Vote, which is currently showing the Senate polls as 50 Democrats, 49 Values Party, and 1 tie:

http://www.electoral-vote.com:2006/evp2006/Sen_graphs/virginia.html

Quite a roller coaster, eh? Here's EV's page where you can get a an overview of the Senate races:

http://www.electoral-vote.com:2006/

And here's another good resource, Election Predictions. Their Senate forecast is the same as RCP.

http://www.electionprediction.us/

[kevinbgoode]

4. I'd be a lot prouder if Virginia voters would wake up

and get the evangelical nutcases out of their state assembly.

[jerryster]

5. Just was looking at it myself

I was going to post the link when I saw your post. The prediction on the site for the House is even more encouraging. The site projects the Dems with 226 seats.

My two concerns in the Senate races are VA and CT. Why CT? I can't shake this belief I have that Lieberman has promised Rove that he'll switch parties if he is re-elected and the switch is needed by the Repubs. I can't imagine Rove helping finance Lieberman's bid without a quid pro quo.

[Lasher]

8. You might be right but most folks believe he'll caucus with us

That's why I set this concern aside and count both Independents as Democrats when I offer one of these summaries. I wouldn't presume to discourage discourse on the subject, though.

[jerryster]

10. I know that's what most people believe

I'm not saying it's incorrect. However, if he wins he will not forget that Dem leadership endorsed Lamont (as they should have) and that he will owe his victory to Rove. Lieberman will continue to support Bush's policy in Iraq and I believe he will effectively give the Repubs what they need to maintain a majority, perhaps not in name but in practice.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong about this. But I keep coming back to the fact that he is running at all. He should have accepted his defeat and supported Lamont. He knew that Lamont would win and I believe he is running because he doesn't like the idea of someone (Lamont) who won't support Bush on Iraq. So is Lieberman running for the people of CT or because he feels a responsibility to support the Pres?

[Lasher]

16. He is running because he's all for himself

He loves the fame and power and wants more. That's one reason why he's taken such a high profile in mouthing repuke talking points in support of the Iraq war - that's been his ticket to Sunday talk shows, where they love to put on a 'moderate' Democrat like him. Get one right winger and a Zell Miller type, for a fair and balanced view, don'tcha know.

I get what you're saying about giving repukes an advantage, even if he does not switch parties and you're right. And he'll be able to hold this over our heads for at least the next 2 years if we don't end up with 52 Democrats/Independents in the Senate, which is highly unlikely. Heck, it's astonishing that we actually have a chance to get the needed minimum of 41.

But if we do get the 51 seats we will control the agenda and we will have subpoena power. I can't summon the words to describe how important that would be.

[Auntie Bush]

9. His quick pro quid is Secretary of Defense if he becomes a turncoat.

[Lasher]

12. If he resigns the Governor would appoint a Republican Senator

I think that scenario is possible. Lieberman gets elected and accepts the Secretary of Defense job in January. Then the Republican governor of Connecticut would appoint a repuke Senator to replace him, giving control back to the Values Party.

I don't know if an appointed Senator would serve out the rest of the term or if there would be a special election.

[Orangepeel]

13. Why would he give up his cushy Senate seat for a two year gig?

I don't know. If he wins (and he most likely will), I think he'll be in that seat until they carry him out in a coffin.

[Divine Discontent]

15. more than it sucks we can't get VA

it sucks that there's so many bigots in VA. How any clean respectable person could vote for a mean old mule like him is troubling.


www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable <<-- antibush prodem stickers/shirts

[Joe Bacon]

6. LIEberman will sell us out.

We got to win in Virginia and help Jack Cater in Nevada, we've got to get to 52 because LIEberman WILL sell us out.

He always has.

[jerryster]

7. VA maybe, NV no way

The polls have Carter so far behind I can't believe he has a prayer. Webb seems to be hanging in. However, it seems (sadly) that Allen has at least managed to brake his downhill slide. We need Montana and Ohio to vote out their incumbents as well.

I wish the election were THIS Tuesday!!

[Joe Bacon]

11. Jerry, I just got a FEELING about Jack Carter

I really have this feeling Jack Carter is going to pull the upset of the night.

[AspenRose]

14. I agree with what someone said at tpm

If voters in VA (excluding NoVA) aren't swayed by "Macaca" and "Welcome to America," or by his financial problems, or by his just being an out and out LIAR, then nothing else you can throw at Felix will sway them.

And that's a damn shame.

However, hopefully this election will destroy ANY chance of his EVER being taken seriously as a presidential candidate. *crosses fingers*