GOP Sure Bets in Fla. Now in Question: Could pick up 5 House seats

[DeepModem Mom]

LAT: GOP's Sure Bets in Florida Now Appear in Question
By Carol J. Williams, Times Staff Writer
October 14, 2006

....even here in Charlotte County on Florida's west coast, where voter turnout is regularly above 70% and heavily GOP, there are fears that the Foley scandal could discourage Republicans from going to the polls.

With President Bush's slumping approval ratings, dissatisfaction with the Iraq war and the failure of the Republican-dominated Congress to tackle issues like Social Security and immigration, GOP candidates in several once-certain Florida races now appear to be in trouble....

***

Before Foley resigned, Republicans held 18 of Florida's 25 U.S. House seats. Political analysts believe five of those are within Democratic reach — potential pickups that could help break the Republicans' control of Congress.

"This is about a lot more than one errant person, and voters know that," Florida Democratic Party spokesman Mark Bubriski said of the bounce in support for Democrats.

Just north of here, in the 13th District put into play by U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris when she decided to challenge Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, Democrat Christine Jennings leads Republican Vern Buchanan by 12 percentage points, according to a recent poll, despite the wealthy Buchanan's $3 million contribution from his own pocket....

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-florida14oct14,0,6886278,full.story?coll=la-home-nation

[lumberjack_jeff]

1. I'm concerned. I see a risk.

The newspaper headlines are encouraging the spreading-around of our effort.

Where we once felt we could compete in 20 races, now we are beginning to feel competitive in 50 (and complacent in half of those). I'm a supporter of the 50-state strategy, but I'm just throwing this out there: is it possible that going after every marginal district is what the Repubs would like us to do?

I'd like to pick up 30 seats, but all we need is 16.

I'm worried that the day after the election the headlines will read "Democrats only pick up 17 seats, support for change overestimated." Worse, we only pick up 14.

[Zynx]

2. If we only go after just enough and then we fail to pick up a couple, that

would be catastrophic. We've tried that in presidential elections and it doesn't work. You have to have a very broad playing field to increase your chances.

[RufusEarl]

3. Congressional poll

I noticed this poll the other day 10-12-06, it has Mark Foley polling at 43%. I don't know whats wrong with the voters of Florida, maybe its something in the water.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/RT-CD_Oct12.pd...

[rosesaylavee]

4. There is the bandwagon effect too...

Not sure how that will sway people for this election as there are so many dire issues ... but some simple folk just want to be with the majority no matter what that means. We will pick up those people who read the news reports that 'everyone' is voting DEM.

[brentspeak]

5. Dems won't pick up any seats in Fla.....unless

the Democratic rank-and-file in Florida keep plugging away for their candidates until Election Day. Take nothing for granted.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

6. Buchanan & Harris Should Hook Up

Between her $10 Million, and his $3 Million, they would make quite a pair.