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Edited on Sun Oct-15-06 09:57 PM by MADem
with the right assignments, the right bosses, and a reasonable degree of poise, judgment, leadership skills, intelligence and fitness--but you really have to have the right assignments. You do have to be political above 0-5, because at that point the odds are good that either one of your old bosses, or a friend of one of your old bosses, is the selection board president. I've sat on a bunch of them, I'm pretty familiar with the drill, and the chit-chat would surprise people who think it's a totally fair system--it isn't.
But I wasn't talking about the line--I was talking about the staff corps specifically. Those guys and gals are completely at the mercy of politics above 0-4. If their community managers have a bad opinion of them (and they DO know them, either personally or by reputation), or a good opinion of someone else that is in competition with them, they can fall by the wayside through no fault of their own. It has nothing to do with skill--it has to do with incredible competition for very limited slots. I know a 'government official's' kid (don't want to get any more specific than that) who is staff corps, and keeps getting promoted--he's not the best, he's sure as hell not the brightest, but his daddy is wired into the defense procurement process. Because of this, someone better has to get shoved aside. It's unfair. It happens. More than most people realize.
This lawyer was already well above zone--he'd FOS'd the second time, at least (he may have asked for/gotten a third look, I don't know who sat on his board). He didn't have a prayer to get picked up below zone or in zone, otherwise it would have happened. I suspect he had a line skipper in the ADM Johnson (a former CNO, two back) mode -- a frigging fitness fanatic. And the good LCDR Swift looked like he didn't miss too many meals, which can be the kiss of death for those types when the skipper is handing out the military bearing grades--sometimes, that can be all it takes when the competition is crazy and that particular characteristic is the 'important thing' of the era (I sat on one board once where the board president decreed that anyone without an up-to-date picture in their fiche got dumped out of the first look; and most of those who didn't make it were in that pile when we finished). I sat on another board eons back where the President decreed that those selected for command had to have decent retention statistics -- those were the bug up his ass, and that quality alone provided way too much weight in deciding fates.
I've seen civilians in Congress and throughout the cabinet cherrypick their acolytes over the years. The board president gets the word, and that particular person gets selected on the first look. No one argues, they know the score. Look at Colin Powell--he sealed his fate with all the right words for the My Lai incident and mitigation of other atrocities during Vietnam, and it was smooth sailing ever-after--he went on to OMB, and thence to fame and fortune--once he got that White House fellowship, he was pretty untouchable. They short toured his ass all the way to General, because that's where they wanted him. I do see the GOP as fiddling with the system a bit more than the Democrats, by and large, but there's influence happening from all ends of the spectrum all the time. And I suspect the Navy's methodology isn't much different from the other branches.
Funny, though, there are different requirements in war and peace. In wartime, the Services tend to want people who can execute, who are proactive, who damn the torpedoes--in peacetime, they seem to prefer bureaucrats and functionaries. The ultimately successful officer is one who can switch between those roles without tearing their hair out. The ones who have trouble are those who can't make that switch when it's called for.
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