Political Scientists' Models Predict Democratic Takeover

[Mr. McD]

In forecasts made as long as six months ago, scholars predict likely Democratic gain of 22-29 seats in the House, and 2-3 seats in the Senate.

Washington, DC--Election forecasting models completed by political scientists months before recent events predict significant Democratic gains in the 2006 midterm elections, including a likely 22 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 2-3 seats in the U.S. Senate.

The predictions appear in two articles coauthored by Carl Klarner and Stan Buchanan (both of Indiana State University) and a third article authored by Alan Abramowitz (Emory University). The articles appear in the October 2006 issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, a journal of the American Political Science Association (APSA), and are available online at:http://www.apsanet.org/section_223.cfm

http://www.apsanet.org/content_35328.cfm

[Demeter]

1. There's Only So Much Stealing That Can BE Concealed

and then the jig is up, and people are marched off to jail wholesale. That is why I believe the tsunami will wipe out the GOP. And the resulting investigations will bury it in the dustbins of history. After this election, NO ONE will be a GOP!

[LSparkle]

2. Only 3 in the Senate? Better do those models again ...

I'm hoping that these kind of reports get major coverage -- that way KKKarl's gang will have a harder time convincing people if things DON'T turn out the way the polls are pointing.

[StClone]

3. Bush, Rove Upbeat

Upbeat? Three plausible lines of thought (not mutually exclusive).

1) Rove has better info for his Spread Sheet than all other sources have combined.

2) Bravado, must win attitude in the face of daunting odds (sports motto "we never play to lose.")

3) We'll cheat every chance we get to get the results America deserves.

[Shipwack]

4. There you go again, using "science"...

Math is hard. Statistics are make-believe voodoo. I don't understand it, therefore it can't be true.

end of :sarcasm:

Interesting... and this was done six months before the latest set of scandals... Well, one can hope...

[Zynx]

5. Those Senate gains are awfully low. I can count four as solid.

MT, OH, PA, and RI are almost certain.

[fujiyama]

6. The RNC decided to stop funding those campaigns

effectively conceding them.