NYT/Reuters: Many still expect a White House "October surprise"

[DeepModem Mom]

Could an "October Surprise" Shape U.S. Election?
By REUTERS
Published: October 17, 2006

....the potential for a campaign-shaping event in the final weeks remains a topic of intense speculation on the Internet and elsewhere. While most late-breaking events are beyond the control of politicians, plenty of conspiracy theorists expect the White House to make a late attempt to halt Democratic momentum.

"It should come as no surprise if the Bush administration undertakes a pre-emptive war against Iran sometime before the November election,'' Gary Hart, a former Democratic senator and presidential candidate, predicted last month on the Huffington Post, an Internet site.

In many scenarios, the man imagined to be pulling the strings on an October surprise is White House political adviser Karl Rove, the architect of Bush's 2004 re-election.

"Karl Rove wouldn't be earning his pay if he didn't try something that would benefit the White House,'' said Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia.

Early speculation about a late surprise to benefit Republicans focused on troop pullouts in Iraq, but that has been off the table for months. Another favorite, a plunge in gasoline prices, already happened to little apparent effect.

One Web site ran a contest to pick the most likely October surprise, with the winner being "Iran totally had it coming.'' The capture or death of bin Laden is another favorite....

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/politics-usa-politics-surprise.html

[Mojambo]

1. How can it be a surprise if everyone is expecting it? n/t

[DeepModem Mom]

2. I hope that's the case -- I hope if they do pull something...

it will be greeted with the same sort of suspicion the fall in gas prices was greeted with.

[Jackpine Radical]

3. There are enough who AREN't expecting it to make the difference.

You know--people who pay no attention to anything but stupid TV shows.

These are, as far as I can figger, the same people who are surprised by the arrival of winter every year.

[DeepModem Mom]

4. LOL! You have a point! nt

[Teaser]

5. winter?

Is that when my neighbor's air conditioning unit starts running backwards?

Makes it all cold and shit outside. I wish he'd just fix it.

[Jackpine Radical]

6. Jeez, thanks for the explanation.

Always wondered what caused that.