ZOGBY: Talent up 3%, Corker up 7%, Dewine up 4%--Stabenow up 4%

[JoshDem]

What's going on--are things swinging against us or is Zogby unreliable???

[HereSince1628]

1. Races get tighter as elections approach and with margin of error

considered, 3 of those you mention are pretty close to being indeterminable as to who is leading.

[global1]

2. And You All Know The Closer The Races Get The Easier For The Repugs.....

to steal them.

[HereSince1628]

6. Unfortunately, that is too true.

We only win elections if we get an undeniably clear majority of votes at the polls.

[Hav]

3. .

Dewine up 4...yeah right.
I guess we shouldn't be surprised as well when the Repubs even gain some Senate seats..

[Sherman A1]

5. Nothing would be surprising with this group

[Cooley Hurd]

4. Zogby's pretty reliable...

...however, those races were relatively tight to begin with, and the RNC is POURING $$$ into those races (which goes to negative advertising).

Nothing to worry about - the DNC & DSCC is also pouring money into them as well and it'll swing back our way.

Welcome to DU.:hi:

[jackbourassa]

52. ARE YOU GUYS KIDDING???

These are Zogby Interactive Polls...

They are the most unreliable out there.

Ignore them...and move on.

Don't even spend one moment worrying about this.

[Cooley Hurd]

57. I wasn't aware it was an interactive poll...

:shrug:

[Renew Deal]

7. That contradicts everything I have seen to date. Where's your source?

:shrug:

[Name removed]

8. Deleted sub-thread

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[JoshDem]

9. RealClear Politics

But I assume that they are on Zogby.com as well

[ps1074]

11. zogby interactive

Says enough.

[MoonRiver]

12. You need to post a link so people can verify your data.

Otherwise, everything you post is considered suspect. Also, why would you assume that something on RealClear Politics would be on Zogby also??

[JoshDem]

16. Why wouldn't it be

I check RealClearPolitics twice a day for the latest polls--it puts all polls up immediately. I assume Zogby would have his own polls on his website but maybe not.

Thought it would be of interest to the board as they seemed to be counter to other trends but perhaps not.

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

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[JoshDem]

21. NEWS FLASH: RCP Carries All Polls

There is a daily update of all polls taken--educate yourself and check it out. Do you always wake up this angry?

[ruggerson]

26. News FLASH - Interactive Polls are not statistically reliable

they are not based on scientifically weighted examples.

Look at the past "Interactive" polls on RCP's site. They're all outliers. Every single one.

[Name removed]

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[DuaneBidoux]

61. link?

[Freddie Stubbs]

35. His poll for the FL Governor primary was VERY accruate

Zogby: Crist leads Gallagher by 30 points

Election result: Crist beats Gallagher by 29.5%

Zogby: Davis leads Smith by 5%

Election result: Davis beats by 6.1%

Article of Zogby poll: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/15430801.htm

FL election results: http://election.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/index.asp?ElectionDate=9/5/2006

[Torgo Johnson]

38. There's a huge difference.

The Florida primary polls were done by Zogby International(phone), the polls in the original post were
done by Zogby Interactive (online by opting-in). The opting-in part makes those polls methodology very suspect.

[Freddie Stubbs]

47. Thank you for clearing that up

:)

[Kingofalldems]

39. This was an interactive poll

Nice try.

[DuaneBidoux]

62. Do you happen to remember he called the election for Kerry?

In fact it was not supposed to be close?

[flpoljunkie]

10. Zogby also predicts R's will win Senate 54-44-2 in his online poll. He is

alone in this prognostication of Republican's not only keeping control of the Senate, but losing only one seat.

[MiniMe]

14. Online polls mean nothing

[MoonRiver]

15. And we don't even know what poll he's referring to, or if those numbers

mean shit. He said the data was from RealClear Politics but that he ASSUMES it is also on Zogby! :crazy:

Add to that the fact that he hasn't even linked to RealClear Politics and I call bull shit.

[JoshDem]

17. Its pretty easy to find

Simply type in realclearpolitics.com--go to latest polls and double click on latest polls--then look on Top of page and they have polls I was referring to.

I don't know how to post links--I barely know how to post.

[MoonRiver]

19. NEWS FLASH: Real Clear Politics is NOT Zogby!

Besides it's YOUR responsibility as the one spewing this crap to do the linking. IF you don't know how to link you shouldn't be posting this junk.

[formernaderite]

32. here's a hint

if you're new to ANY site on the internet, sit for a while. Maybe post a comment or two...but don't jump right in and post a thread with a questionable source. It's bad etiquette.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

65. Do you know how to cut and paste?

On my computer I click and drag the mouse across whatever I want to highlight. Then I go to "more choices" where the cut and paste is located. I then click on "cut". This stores the information until I go to the place where I want to paste. Then I go once again to "more choices" and hit the paste. And magically the information appears. :)

If this isn't clear enough, you should have a "help" section that will guide you through.

I know, I'm pretty computer illiterate myself, so I can feel your pain.

BTW, Welcome to DU. :hi:

[flpoljunkie]

24. Zogby did this online polling for the Wall Street Journal. Link below.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash06.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1

[AX10]

28. It looks like a 50/50 Senate.

I find it hard to believe that the GOP will not lose more than 1 seat.

[geek tragedy]

37. Well, he didn't bother to deal with MONTANA in that

poll, so he's on crack.

[bigdarryl]

56. Most of these polls were done on 9-25-06 a month ago

today is 10-19-06 i want to see what the polls say after this date. there is no way Croker is up seven points.

[win_in_06]

13. Tight races are not good for us because of GOP $$$$$$$$$$$$

[nickinSTL]

20. no links? Here's what I found for the latest polls...

MCCASKILL HAS 5-POINT LEAD. Claire McCaskill is leading Jim Talent, 48% - 43% in a new DSCC poll, a 5-point surge since late September. McCaskill and Talent were tied at 44 just two weeks ago. Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal conducted the survey among 800 registered voters from October 9 to October 11, 2006. The margin of error was 3.5%.
http://www.dscc.org/news/roundup/20061013_mccaskillpoll/

McCaskill 51% Talent 42% +/-4.5% SurveyUSA 10/12/06
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=a98f7222-194d-4374-afc2-68d6811513b6&q=30179


Without links you expect me to believe Talent's gained 8 to 12 points in the last week? :eyes:

[OzarkDem]

22. Zogby hired a GOP operative last summer

No, he is no longer reliable. He hired a reporter, Fritz Wenzel, last summer from the Toledo Blade.

Wenzel tried to keep the Toledo Blade from reporting on the Noe scandal

http://loganselm.blogspot.com/2005/10/fritz-wenzels-mystery.html

[JoshDem]

23. More Zogby Polls--Better News for Dems

Cantwell up 8%, Casey up 8%, Cardin up 8%, Klobuchar up 7%.

Repubs ahead with Leiberman up 6%, Kean up 2% and Allen up 3%.

[Name removed]

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[alfredo]

51. Leibermann has been a real disappointment.

One thing we could expect is some defections from the GOP. Some of the more moderate voices might jump ship. It happened to the Dems when they lost in 94. All it took was a few promises of appointments and reelection money, but they jumped. One was Nighthorse Campbell. We are already seeing some R's jumping ship on the local level.


on edit:
Don't expect any party changing (if any) until after the election.

[AX10]

27. Is this one of those Zogby interactive polls?

If so then it cannot be trusted. They are highly unreliable.
I find ti hard to belive that Dewine is suddenly ahead of Brown. Also, Corker is tied with Ford and Stabenow is ahead by 10%+.

[JoshDem]

30. Yes-it is.

[Brazenly Liberal]

31. About interactive polls

They're completely unreliable because they're so easy to rig. Even if the pollster is completely on the level, people who participate often aren't. It's a piece of cake to register multiple times and record multiple votes.

[KingFlorez]

29. I'm having a hard time believing Stabenow is only up by 4

[Mass]

33. ZOGBY - I do not trust them at all.

Anyway, they have been trending Republican for a while now, while all other polls trend democratic.

[Kingofalldems]

34. Gee I noticed you posted about the great rise in Mr. Bush's polls

back in Sept. What happened there?

[WA98296]

36. Exactly as I predicted. Polls will now begin to show GOP gains --LIES

This is done so that we swallow another loss...I mean theft of an election.
They continue to do the same things over and over.

[Ignacio Upton]

41. Zogby polls are not credible

I could believe Talent being up by three, but the other three races you mentioned are not believable.

[lonehalf]

42. Zogby was the best in 2000 - one of the worst since then n/t

[Ignacio Upton]

43. With the exception of predicting Gore to win, the were off in 2000 too

They had Hillary neck and neck with Lazio in her first election for her Senate seat, and she went on to win by more than 10%.

[Hippo_Tron]

44. I read the site, Brown is up 4% not DeWine

Brown has been leading DeWine for over a month now in almost every single poll. The range could be anywhere from 4 points to 15 according to SurveyUSA.

[JoshDem]

45. You're Right

RCP had it the other way this morning and they corrected it.

[Name removed]

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[fujiyama]

59. If this poll had any merit

they wouldn't have stopped funding DeWine. Internal polling by the GOP (which I would believe is more accurate than any public polls taken by Zogby) show them facing a terrible situation in OH.

They've almost conceeded that seat as well as RI and Pa.

[Hippo_Tron]

64. Yea I think they are leaning on TN, MO, and VA now

Shrub was raising money for Senator Macaca earlier this week supposedly.

[ChiciB1]

48. What Cha Doin Josh?????

Isn't this your THIRD Thread about this in about an hour?? Other polls show different figures! These may be close, but Zogby isn't the SAME Zogby it used to be!

Well, one thing for sure.... this will keep us on our toes!!!

GET OUT THE VOTE! GET OUT THE VOTE! DO NOT LET THEM DO IT AGAIN!!!

[Name removed]

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[ChiciB1]

50. Okey Dokey! Guess I'll Get Bumped! Was Just Making An

OBVIOUS point!

[derby378]

53. Meanwhile, in CT, it's Lieberman 49%, Lamont 43%

This isn't looking good - Lamont can't hold anything back now.

[bigdarryl]

58. Was that poll done before the debate?

if it wasn't its good news for Lamont because i though the republican candidate won that debate fair and square. he told the republican voters Lieberman votes 96% of the time with the Democrats and has said he will caucus with the dem's.

[OzarkDem]

54. Zogby hired a GOP operative

Last summer. His poll results have been off - base ever since.

[Tiggeroshii]

55. I'm thinking this internet based polling isn't the best out there.

Just a hunch...

[struggle4progress]

60. Here are the l;ast five on McCaskill/Talent:

Oct 19 McCaskill 47 Talent 50 MO-SEN Zogby Int. (-3)
Oct 16 McCaskill 42 Talent 43 MO-SEN Rasmussen (-1)
Oct 13 McCaskill 48 Talent 43 MO-SEN BPB (+5)
Oct 12 McCaskill 51 Talent 42 MO-SEN SurveyUSA (+9)
Oct 07 McCaskill 44 Talent 43 MO-SEN Rasmussen (+1)

Avg McCaskill 46.4 Talent 44.2 MO-SEN Rasmussen (+2.2)

It's close -- and it's not over til it's over ...

[OzarkDem]

66. Bogus Zogby numbers are meant to skew the averages

and make races appear closer than they are.

[struggle4progress]

68. Well, you may be absolutely right.

But I don't take any of them too seriously.

And especially at this stage in the season, there's only one thing to say: "It's winnable but nothing is guaranteed: let's get to work!"

[struggle4progress]

63. Here are the last five on Ford/Corker:

Oct 19 Ford 42 Corker 50 Zogby Int. (-8)
Oct 13 Ford 48 Corker 46 Rasmussen (+2)
Oct 10 Ford 46 Corker 48 SurveyUSA (-2)
Oct 10 Ford 51 Corker 44 DSCC (+7)
Oct 06 Ford 50 Corker 45 Gallup (+5)

Average of the last five
Ford 47.4 Corker 46.6 Gallup (+0.8)

Another close one .. can't rest yet ...

[OzarkDem]

67. And what is the average without Zogby?

Sorry, but Zogby hired the GOP reporter who tried to cover up the Coingate scandal in Ohio. Their numbers are not accurate, they're very likely rigged.

[struggle4progress]

69. OK, conclusion is still: it's close. So fight fight fight!

[DFLforever]

70. I think Zogby interactive is almost entirely without merit.

You can choose the state whose candidates you want to respond to whether you live there or not!

Damn, I was sorely tempted to say I was from Connecticut and vote for Lamont.

And I bet a lot of Lieber R's have done just that.

[IndianaGreen]

71. Perhaps it was Ford's endorsement of Lieberman

that cost him some progressive support. I don't know about the other ones. How could Dewine go up at all? Could it be that we are being prepped for another Diebold and ESS stolen election.

[snowbear]

72. Hate to rain on Josh Dem's parade since it's evident someone here....

... REALLLLLLLY likes Mr. JD.

A lot.

But Brown has a 14% LEAD over DeWine in the lastest poll - (it's being discussed on another section of DU)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2894242

So sorry Josh Dem.

[WCGreen]

73. BTW, that poll showed Brown up by 4%....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/latestpolls/