Senate and Gubernatorial Predictions.

[elperromagico]

These predictions are the product of finding the median of the most recent polls. I find the median more reliable than the average, as the median tends to follow definite trends and is not as likely to be falsely influenced by anomalous poll results. When a large number of polls were available, I have included a presumptive margin.

US Senate

Democratic - Margin of 20% or more
Massachusetts
Delaware
New Mexico
Wisconsin
West Virginia
New York - D +28.5%
Hawaii
Nebraska
Florida - D +21%
California - D +20.9%

Democratic - Margin of 10% or more
Minnesota - D +15.2%
Michigan - D +13.2%
North Dakota
Pennsylvania - D +11.1%

Democratic - Margin of 5%-10%
Ohio - D +9.2%
Washington - D +9.2%
Montana - D +7.4%
Maryland - D +5.8%
Rhode Island - D +5%

Democratic - Margin of 0%-5%
New Jersey - D +3.5%
Missouri - D +2.2%
Tennessee - D +1.5%


Republican - Margin of 0%-5%
Virginia - R +3.9%

Republican - Margin of 5%-10%
Arizona - R +9.6%

Republican - Margin of 10%-20%
None

Republican - Margin of 20% or more
Nevada - R +21.1%
Texas
Mississippi
Wyoming
Utah
Maine
Indiana


Independent - Margin of 20% or more
Vermont - I +33.1%

Independent - Margin of 10%-20%
Connecticut - I +10.7%



Gubernatorial

Democratic - Margin of 20% or more
New Hampshire
New York - D +46.9%
Tennessee
New Mexico
Wyoming
Arizona - D +27.5%
Oklahoma
Ohio - D +20.2%

Democratic - Margin of 10%-20%
Massachusetts - D +19.4%
Pennsylvania - D +18%
Colorado - D +13.2%
Arkansas - D +12.8%
Kansas

Democratic - Margin of 5%-10%
Illinois - D +9.7%
Maryland - D +7.5%
Michigan - D +7%
Maine - D +5.4%

Democratic - Margin of 0%-5%
Oregon - D +4.7%
Wisconsin - D +4.2%
Iowa - D +3.5%
Minnesota - D +1.2%


Republican - Margin of 0%-5%
None

Republican - Margin of 5%-10%
Rhode Island - R +5%
Nevada - R + 8.1%

Republican - Margin of 10%-20%
Alaska - R +11.5%
South Carolina - R +12.2%
Florida - R +12.7%
California - R +13.1%
Georgia - R +18%
Texas - R +19.4%
Alabama - R +19.8%

Republican - Margin of 20% or more
Vermont - R +20.8%
Connecticut - R +26.4%
Idaho
Hawaii
South Dakota
Nebraska


Any comments are appreciated. :hi:

[David Dunham]

1. The Senate races will be closer; the post-Foley Dem bounce is fading

The question is did the Dems get an artificial high from Foley that cannot be maintained?

[elperromagico]

3. MO and TN are tightening slightly.

If the bounce fades, these states will likely suffer first. But the numbers in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana, and Rhode Island actually seem to solidifying, as though undecideds are choosing to go with the challenger.

[AX10]

2. kick

I don't have time now, so I will try to comment tomorrow.

[LiberalFighter]

4. Plus 5 with this batch

D Massachusetts
D Delaware
D New Mexico
D Wisconsin
D West Virginia
D New York
D Hawaii
D Nebraska
D Florida
D California
D Minnesota
D Michigan
D North Dakota
R Pennsylvania
R Ohio
D Washington
R Montana
D Maryland
R Rhode Island
D New Jersey
R Missouri
R Tennessee

[elperromagico]

7. Tennessee's razor thin and so is Missouri.

We're going to have several nailbiters this year. However, the results in RI, NJ, and VA should come relatively early in the evening and give us some sort of clue as to how the election is going. If Whitehouse, Menendez, and Webb are doing better than expected, we may be experiencing the kind of tide that lifts all Democratic boats.

[nickshepDEM]

5. I sure hope you're right about Maryland.

[elperromagico]

6. I haven't seen a poll where Ehrlich had a lead since January.

Since Labor Day, O'Malley's lead has ranged from 4% to 12%. It's a lean D but still a D.

[MonteSano]

8. I just pray to God we win in TN and MO. If that happens we win the Senate,