Latest Senate-Race Polling and Musings

[Bob Geiger]

It's hard to believe that it's almost November 7 but here's my latest notes and random thoughts on the hot Senate races.

Races that are effectively over: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Washington. Jim Pederson simply did not begin soon enough at beating Arizona Republican Jon Kyl over the head about the minimum wage and his ties to the big pharmaceutical companies… Pederson finally did, but too late to overcome the natural incumbent edge. And, in Nevada, Democrat Jack Carter never really did get any traction in unseating the GOP's John Ensign.

But, if you can find a Republican arrogant and dumb enough to place a wager -- and that shouldn’t be hard to do -- put the rent money on Debbie Stabenow (MI), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Bob Casey (PA) or Maria Cantwell (WA)…Those are done.

Look out Hillary Clinton… Pollster.com's average of the last five major polls has Republican challenger John Spencer pulling to within 30 points.

And then there's the really big ones… It's closer than we would like, but Ben Cardin still takes out Michael Steele in Maryland and Montana Democrat Jon Tester ends the pain and embarrassment for Big Sky Country residents and puts GOP goofball Conrad Burns out to pasture. Robert Menendez will win in New Jersey and I suspect by more than the polls have been suggesting.

Hello Senator Sherrod Brown from Ohio -- Republican Mike DeWine starts his new lobbying job with <insert GOP donor name here> in January.

I've just got a good feeling about the amazing campaign that's been waged by Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee… And the five-poll average from Pollster.com has Sheldon Whitehouse up by an average of six points over Republican Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island. The interesting nugget in the Rhode Island race is that the recent Rhode Island College poll still had a huge 23 percent listed as "undecided." In this race, that makes sense and it's also why Democrats should stay focused and not underestimate Chafee.

As for Connecticut…. Sigh. My heart and head fight over this one every day. And I have dark, bad thoughts about Joe Lieberman that I never thought I would have for another Democrat -- sorry, ex-Democrat. This race is a mystery at this point. Lieberman's up significantly in the polls but I simply believe that way more real Democrats are going to show up on election day and that Lamont will win a tight victory.

Races that will make us all stay up into the wee hours of the November 8 morning: Virginia and Missouri. George Felix Allen is ahead in almost every poll and has way more money that Democrat Jim Webb, but it's very hard to get a grip on what will really happen with this on election night.

In Missouri, Democrat Claire McCaskill and incumbent Jim Talent are locked up tighter than Duke Cunningham's private prison shower room, with almost every poll showing one or the other with a very slim lead. Do they use Diebold machines in Missouri? One more thing about this race: Don't believe any poll that shows either candidate with a big lead -- like the SurveyUSA poll giving McCaskill a nine-point edge over Talent. The reality is, that this is a dead heat and all Democrats need to turn out.

Please go to BobGeiger.com for the latest polls.

[WI_DEM]

1. unless I'm mistaken a Survey USA poll in the last couple of days

put Pederson within four-points. I know other polls show a wider gap, but if it is within four and with a popular Democratic Governor at the top of the ticket and if there is truly more enthusiasm among Democrats about voting then Pederson may be a sleeper victory. I'm not saying he will win, but if it is a "wave election" there usually are some surprises and Pederson could be one of them.

p.s.
I think I'm also more pessimistic than you about Connecticut. With the Q-poll giving Lieberman a 17-point lead, I think it's going to be hard for Ned to win, unless he can get within five and then have a superior ground game take him to victory.

[jefferson_dem]

2. Yup. Five point spread (48-43).

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=6a637866-2c1b-43ae-a907-c8e1b10f5d88

[WI_DEM]

3. p.s.

One race that dems can't take for granted is the NJ Senate race--this is the only race (other than Lieberman) that I can potentially see the GOP picking up. Corzine made an awful choice with Menendez, imo, because he has had too many ethical problems in the past.

[liberal N proud]

4. It is looking good.

We need to keep working our tails off to keep this momentum going and growing. --- no it is not a prostate problem

[WI_DEM]

5. just for fun here are my predictions

Likely Democratic pick up: Pennsylvania, Ohio and Montana
Likely to remain democratic: Minnesota, Washington, Michigan
leaning Democratic: Rhode Island, Maryland
Too Close to Call: NJ, MO, TN
Leaning GOP: Arizona and Virginia
Likely GOP: Nevada

(I think these are all the races which had been thought to be competitive)

So I'm predicting a Democratic pick up in the Senate of 4-6 seats but could be as high as 7.

[TheVirginian]

6. NJ, CT, TN, VA, and MO.

In New Jersey, its impossible to put that in the bank, given the low amount of support for Menendez in the Garden State. Anytime you have an incumbent who regularly polls under 40%, you have a problem. While Menendez might still win, to call it this far out is, in my opinion, absurd. Also, the Star Ledger broke the news two weeks ago about Menendez's former associates. I imagine there's more where that came from, and might break the week before Election Day to bring the undecideds out for Kean. Will it happen? Maybe, maybe not, but I don't understand how anybody can confidently say that Menendez will pull it out.

In Connecticut, anybody who thinks that Lieberman isn't winning is just deluding themselves. Every poll that has ever been conducted since the primary (and even before) has never shown Lamont with a lead. Some polls have Lieberman's lead as many as 17 (or in previous polls, over 20). Even the "closer" polls have Lieberman's margin at 5-10 points. In a primary, numbers like that don't mean anything because it all hinges on turn-out, and its impossible to predict turn-out. In a general election, turn-out is a lot more consistent, and the numbers don't lie.

As for TN, VA, and MO, these will be down to the wire. But the most important thing to remember is that, in a red state, many people who say they're undecided or even voting for the challenger will end up voting for a Republican when they're in the privacy of the voting booth. Virginians who don't want to tell a pollster they're voting for Allen will do so when no one is around. And voters who haven't paid attention to the race in Missouri will show up at the polls and pull the lever for the guy with the (R) next to his name. I think Allen has Virginia locked up, and I don't believe in a tie in Missouri; a tie goes to Talent. If McCaskill doesn't have an edge then Talent does. As for Tennessee, Ford is looking strong, but he needs to keep up the momentum for 18 more days. Any drop in momentum will let Corker catch up, and the same thing in Missouri goes for Tennessee; a tie goes to the Republican in a red state.

I see Dems winning in PA, MT, OH, RI, and TN. I see the GOP winning in MO, VA, and NJ, and keeping a 51-47-2 majority in the Senate.