4 difference recent polls in VA Senate race.

[cnlst8]

10/25 Rasmussen : Allen(R) 49 - Webb(D) 48
10/24 Survey USA : Allen(R) 49 - Webb(D) 46
10/23 LA Times/Bloomberg : Webb(D) 47- Allen(R) 44
10/19 Mason Dixon : Allen(R) 47 - Webb(D) 43

The Rasmussen recent poll is unconfirmed leak poll.

It all depends on voter turn out.

[Frances]

1. I agree that turn out is the key

It looks to me that the race is tied since I think that none of these polls shows one person leading outside the margin of error.

I seem to remember that the polls in the last governor's race showed the race very close but then the Dem Kaine won. I am so hoping that the polls are underestimating the Dem turnout and that Webb beats that jerk Allen.

[longship]

2. It all depends on poll internals.

None of these polls are likely reflecting reality. This year there's been some pretty horrible internals, particularly with Zogby's polls. The candidate polls are jumping all over the place. They should only be trusted in average, in trend, or in accumulation across multiple races.