Tennessee and the ‘15% Lie’

[Rose Siding]

Today’s Journal looks at the Senate contest in Tennessee: Race has long been a deciding factor in Southern politics, helping determine who is picked to represent the region in Washington. Now, parts of the upper South — including Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina — are attracting significant numbers of people from other parts of the country who aren’t steeped in the region’s traditions but are drawn to good jobs, lower taxes, top-notch universities and affordable real estate.

The real test will come on Nov. 7. Polls have often shown African-American candidates scoring well in the polls only to fail to clinch the election. In 1990, former Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young drew wide support from white business leaders in his run for Georgia governor but lost in the Democratic primary. The same year, former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt challenged Sen. Jesse Helms — one of the South’s most vocal opponents of racial integration in the 1960s — and was well ahead in the polls but nevertheless lost. Even former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, who is the only black elected to a governorship in the U.S., won in 1989 by a much narrower margin — half a percentage point — than the 10% indicated in exit polls.

Some political scientists and strategists refer to it as the “15% lie” — when whites, bowing to societal pressure, tell pollsters they intend to vote for a black candidate but fail to do so in the voting booths. Indeed, several political experts believe that despite Harold Ford Jr.’s strong showing in the polls, some whites may desert him at the last minute.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2006/10/26/tennessee-and-the-15-lie/

How shameful. I'd never even heard of such a thing.

[bluestateguy]

1. In the privacy of the voting booth, voters are free to be racist without consequence

The alternative would be to get rid of the secret ballot, but that would cause more problems than it would solve (I oppose that idea).

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

2. What decade is it again?

1930's? 1860's? I'm a little confused.

[Norquist Nemesis]

3. I've also heard it as the "black tax"

that a black candidate needs a much higher percentage because they'll lose about 5-10% when the voter goes into the booth.

[geek tragedy]

4. Yes, and it's not even a party thing.

Bobby Jindal (an Indian-American) was leading Blanco in Louisiana in just about all the polls.

Bada boom, bada bing. He lost 52-48%.

[Ignacio Upton]

15. I'm wondering if he will run against Blanco in 2007

Her popularity took a hit from Katrina (and don't expect her signing the abortion ban to help.)

[geek tragedy]

17. Jindal is everything the Republican party claims it is, so

he's going to either run for Governor again or for the Senate at some point.

Then again, if Ray Nagin got to keep his job, maybe Blanco will too.

[SmokingJacket]

5. I wonder. It's easy enough to make excuses --

They could say "Nah, I find Ford to be fiscally irresponsible" or whatever; if they were really racist they would sooner find an excuse than to make everyone think they were voting for him.

I don't think I buy it -- sounds like another Diebold-type excuse: "Exit polls don't work anymore," "Democrats got too confident so they didn't turn out to vote," "Republicans lie to exit pollers," etc.

[ChiciB1]

6. Just Keep The Crap Flowing!! Is This True??? Is It Not True??

Is this just ANOTHER "excuse" for how they REALLY won an election they really DIDN'T win??

WILL IT NEVER STOP?? Just read the article by Greg Palast and find myself feeling helpless again! How is ANYONE supposed to get people to vote when each and every election has more lies, more fuzzing and more fraud???

Will my absentees that I turned in for my family really get counted???

I think I'm going to take a few aspirins and lay down for a little while. Better add some rolaids for the acid that is building up in the stomach too! And I won't forget the extra pillow to put over my head just in case I feel like SCREAMING!!

[Dob Bole]

7. People also lie to pollsters about church attendance and whether they vote...

so yes, it's true. I'm not sure about 15%, but many people tell pollsters that they would vote for a black candidate because they want to be thought of as a good citizen. But then they either don't actually vote or vote for the opposition candidate in the voting booth.

[AtomicKitten]

8. all I've got to say is

GO HAROLD!!!

[bullimiami]

9. doesnt that seem bassackwards? publicly displaying not just indifference but

anti racism and yet privately racist.

i dont think it smells like reality.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

11. Try thinking of it this way: When you vote, you're communicating

with an inanimate object that cannot judge you--a piece of paper or a machine.

When you respond to a poll, you're dealing with a human being. If you know what the "socially acceptable" answer is, you're more likely to tell a live human being that answer rather than what you REALLY think. You might believe a telephone interviewer may be an African-American, or you may have picked up more subtle voice inflections that make you think the interviewer very likely doesn't share racist views. In that case, you would have to be a pretty bold bigot to answer questions about race with complete honesty.

Survey researchers are quite familiar with this problem, which they call "social-desirability response bias". See, for example, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_desirability_bias .

[AspenRose]

10. Not only do I believe it

Unfortunately, I expect this for Ford (and I sincerely hope I'm wrong).

[colonel odis]

12. my guess is they're floating the story they'll use to cover the fact that the

machines here will be rigged.

let's face it, the g.o.p. simply is not going to let a person of color occupy the senate seat that bill frist is leaving. if they have to make bob corker shoot that sumbitch with a pistol on election day, they're not going to let uppity harold ford receive the designation of being the first black senator from the south since reconstruction.

[dsc]

13. This is a well known phenomena

Dinkins was leading by much more than we won by in his first race and he was leading in his second race against Guiliani. The only race where this apparently wasn't a factor was Obama's.

[Ignacio Upton]

14. Obama was running against a black opponent

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if this happens to Ford. However, and this is cynical, but Ford's skin is fairly light (he's biracial) so hopefully the ignorance of some voters can prevent that from happening (honestly, I thought he was white until I found out more of his background.)

[Jack Rabbit]

16. I've seen it happen

It's not 15% in California, but Tom Bradley was leading George Deukmejian in the polls in the 1982 gubernatorial race and lost.

Deukmejian was an abysmal governor who dissed public education and cut its funding at every opportunity.

[Sensitivity]

18. "NEVER HEARD OF SUCH" ??? Race-Bias in Poll answers is NOTORIOUS

If the "Southern Strategy" and the race-bais in polling is NOT happening
in the Ten contest, then THAT WOULD BE AMAZING.

The real question is whether FORD has been able to transend the usual
race-identity phenomona. It is possible -- because of his light complextion
and verbal polish -- that he has be able to do this.

Professional analysts would not bet on it.

[entanglement]

19. Shameful

n/t