Repuke scribe at NRO concedes 11 House seats lost and many more in play

[jefferson_dem]

The following, from http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDg4NzU4YmE2ZjI2NTk0MWJlMWNmMGYyNDEzZDI1YTQ=

The House

A response from one of my regular Smart Hill Guys to Rich's notes from earlier:

The following 11 seats are either hopeless or need an act of God:

TX22 (Delay)

AZ-08 (Kolbe)

OH-18 (Padgett)

IN-08 (Hostettler)

PA-10 (Sherwood)

FL-16 (Foley - even though they seem to have optimism there, hard to imagine)

CO-07 Beauprez

NC-11 (Taylor not 100% dead, but close and at financial disadvantage)

IN-02 (Too bad, Chocola was a solid GOP member)

PA-07 Weldon

NY-24 Boehlert Seat

There are a lot of additional seats (about 25) that could go either way, are extremely close and will completely depend on the environment over the next 12 days. Republican dollars are starting to take effect, and the DCCC has put a lot of its resources into races that are more of a reach than the "definites or likely" in an attempt to run the table and in the process are driving themselves into debt. GOP candidates who are doing best are adequately responding to Dems with contrast ads - particularly in response to Bush links pressed by their Dem opponents.

The base is starting to come home, and is certainly fired about the thought of Speaker Pelosi. The worry is independents and weak R's and our break. That is why Mehlman/RNC is touching indes so frequently. Nothing is for certain. On a bad night, we can lose 30 seats. But, if we have solid performance over the next 13 days and the news cycle doesn't kill us, it could be a night of very close wins maintaining a close majority of 2 or 3. One thing is for certain, Iraq is a devastating issue for most of these races, and yesterday's press conference gave away another news cycle.

[KingFlorez]

1. Fantastic!

Three more to go!