Webb vs Felix: Forget the polls. What does your gut tell you?

[Stinky The Clown]

[BamaLefty]

1. Felix

In all honesty. . .

[Zynx]

2. My gut gives me the same feeling about Allen that I had about Cleland

in 2002.

[Tiggeroshii]

15. it's flipped, isn't it?

That guy served honorably and got destroyed by a heartless candidate to the point where he lost his grip, whereas they are still tryign to smear Webb, who also served honorably but are failing to suppress displaying their own idiocy during an election cycle, slowly dismantling their ability to stay in office.

[rurallib]

3. Who counts the vote is key.

[Stinky The Clown]

9. Uh .....

.... and who counts them in Virginia?

Or was that just a knee-jerk reply?

[Beetwasher]

13. Both Gov. and SOS are Dems

So that shouldn't be an issue. If there are any serious shenanigans, they won't stand for it.

[David__77]

4. i just don't know

i have a hard time seeing the defeat of any republicans not 10+ points down in the polls. i know it's irrational in light of actually-changed political conditions, but i think my surprise will be a pleasant one.

[AspenRose]

5. That racist asshole Felix

x(

[Poiuyt]

6. There are too many racists in southern VA. Allen will hold on

This race and the one in Tennessee are very disturbing to me because of the racism involved.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

8. I agree.

Too many people there not only agree with him, but are proud that that kind of manure is coming out of his mouth. If that wasn't the case, his poll numbers right now would be in the single digits.

[AlinPA]

29. Good point. nt

[carolinayellowdog]

26. The divide is urban/rural, not north/south or east/west

Southern Virginia cities are as blue generally as those in the northern part of the state. Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton, Newport News, Danville, Lynchburg, Roanoke, Martinsville, Lexington, Radford, all went Kaine in 2005 and can be expected to support Webb in 2006. Same goes for Richmond and Charlottesville. The Republican strongholds are the rural counties and Richmond suburbs. That used to be true of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach but Thelma Drake is about to go, it appears. On the verge of a glorious victory to be won by Democrats ALL OVER Virginia, it sucks to be constantly reminded on DU that many NOVA residents look down on the rest of us with the same disdain some northeasterners have for the Deep South.

My gut says Webb wins almost every city in the state and many counties.

[Hippo_Tron]

7. Felix

He's got more money for GOTV and last minute ad blitzes. Carson v Coburn, Knowles v Murkowski, Daschle v Thune, and Bowles vs Burr races in '04 have made me very skeptical about Democrats in close races in red states winning anything.

[saltpoint]

10. Jim Webb wins in Virginia. Strong showing in the north, with many

Allen voters questioning his stature, questioning their previous support, and in the end, voting for the "safe" Democrat.

The passages from the novel will have no discernible effect on the outcome.

Webb wins.

[Stinky The Clown]

11. The 'safe' Democrat, in this race, is a unique entity.

He's safe for democrats because he's a Democrat.

he's safe for Republicans because he was a Republican until quite recently when he was, on principle, forced to change parties and oppose what most Americans now oppose.

That .... and he, unlike the football coach's sprem lottery winning son, is a native son with deep Virginia roots.

One is a faux southerner and a real racist. The other is the real deal. Not a hard choice, is it? :)

[saltpoint]

16. Terrific points. Allen looks feeble next to Jim Webb.

You Virginians are going to be in the news in 8 days' time.

We're rooting for ya.

[LostinVA]

19. Webb will take most of Central VA

Cville, Richmond City, and a chunk of the 64 corridor.

[saltpoint]

22. I'm buoyed by the report of the Rasmussen poll with Webb now

in the lead and Allen shown to have lost ground.

It's still going to be intense, but the trend line can't be much comfort to ol' Cement-Head Allen.

[LostinVA]

40. I thought Kaine would lose by 3%

And, I think Webb has broader support than Kaine did... imo.

[Beetwasher]

12. VA Has Dem Gov. and Dem SOS, So Stealing That Election

Will not be easy. Kaine won in '05 and if they could have stolen it, they would have, methinks. Clean election=Webb.

[Tiggeroshii]

14. I always thought he would win

even while he was polling at 30% or so. I figured this because Allen was a racist and he was simply a good, conservative Democrat. With a little bit of support, I knew he would be able to take off in his campaign and that is exactly what happened. Felix made a little gaffe, and people gave a second thought to what their choices were and became fond of Webb: a Virginia native, with conservative values and populist appeal.

[NJ Democrats]

17. I think Allen wins

Too much rural and Southern VA support.

[LostinVA]

20. BUt, it's RURAL... much less population than the rest of VA

Even Danville and Lynchburg have a healthy chunk of blue and purple.

[LostinVA]

18. Webb will win by 3% -- the Navy vote will surprise us

[David Zephyr]

21. Webb needs to underscore his military service & his son's in last week.

He's done it already, but he really needs to drive it home this week with voters that he's still wearing his son's combat boots.

[rep the dems]

23. Unfortunately, my gut says we're not going to win this one.

But I tend to be a pessimist on close races.

[nickshepDEM]

24. A week ago I would have said Allen by about 3-5. Now...

I think Webb wins in a very, very close race.

[BootinUp]

25. I voted Webb, but the report on CNN tonight

did cause a slight twinge of of worry. Showed Allen going around to black churches with Deacon Jones (black NFL star) and then some black church goers talking about Allen is right about the gay marriage thing. :eyes:

Allen gets a fair share of votes from the black community evidently. (20% range).

[LibDemAlways]

31. I don't believe that Allen will get 20% of the black vote.

I read that he got 17% in 2000. After "macaca" there's no way his support among black people is going to increase.

[BootinUp]

32. I guess it was 19% one year and 17 another,

It was a rough estimate. Its a lot more than say the 10% of blacks that typically vote republican in this country.

[Beetwasher]

35. ROFL! Mr. Macacca Going To Black Churches????

:rofl:

Yeah, that'll work.

[greeneyedboy]

27. until the pathetic attack on Webb's fiction, i'd have said Allen. but now...

Webb's on a roll. go, Jim!

[saltpoint]

36. Agree. That ploy seems to have blown up in Cement-Head's face.

I wonder how many Virginia high school lit teachers read the report of the attack on Webb's fiction and said, under their breath in the teacher's lounge, "Sheesh, Allen's a total lunkhead."

[AlinPA]

28. Voting machines can make the difference for Allen. No way to check them.

[jab105]

30. On this one, gut says Webb...but for Tennessee, gut says Coker...

[Infinite Hope]

33. I had a dream...

(a real one) the other morning that we easily won the House, but only took 4 seats in the Senate. My dreams like this often come true, but we shall see.

I believe we will take either 4 or 7 in the Senate.

[LibDemAlways]

34. This one will be a squeaker.....even though

it's a no brainer. Vietnam vet who served his country with distinction, Secretary of the Navy under Reagan vs. racist scumbag, dumber than a doorknob phony, Bush Crime Family rubber stamp who wouldn't have been elected to the local sanitation board if not for his famous daddy. Come on, Virginia. Do the right thing. Webb by a couple of percentage points - fingers tightly crossed.

[Donna Zen]

37. Too spooked to vote

One thing that works for Webb is this: Steve Jarding. Jarding has run two successful Virginia campaigns, but even more import, Jarding is a Dem who knows how to count. He knows where those Dem votes are, and if he doesn't see them on his list, then he finds them. That's how rove operates too. Numbers. This is one state where GOTV should shade in our favor.

Webb is the perfect candidate for Virginia.

[SaveElmer]

38. It's gonna be close...but I have to say...I have turned around on Webb...

In the 21 years I have lived here, I have never seen Democrats so pumped up about a candidate!!

I had my doubts about Webb at the beginning...particularly some of his comments about John Kerry...

But I was wrong...he has turned out to be one of the most admirable politicians I have ever seen. It would be a crying shame if he did not get a post of real leadership not only in Virginia, but perhaps higher office later on.

[Stinky The Clown]

39. "........ but perhaps higher office later on"

Elmer, that statement gave me shivers.

I know for a fact that there are at least a hundred other dems I agree with on specific issues more than I agree with Webb on issues, but I REALLY like this guy. I mean I ***REALLY*** like this guy. For my disagreements with him on issues, he's a man of very high integrity and honor. That maybe counts for more than across the board agreement.

Talk about counting chickens before they're hatched ..... but 'higher office' ...... what a nice thought.

[SaveElmer]

41. He really has turned out to be far more impressive...

Than I imagined he would be...

I know it is wayyyy premature, but he does have that air of competence and integrity that could be very appealing in a national run!