ABB is THE ISSUE this Election Year

[JCMach1]

Make no mistake, the only issue that seems to matter to voters this year is Bush.

It's not the economy
It's not Social Security
It's not about National Security or Terrorism
It's not even about ideology

It's about the failed total package wrapped-up in the person of *.

For now, it looks to me like the primaries are also reflecting this. Kerry support seems to rest in that he ISN'T Bush.

Kerry is in fact a liberal on many issues. While he did vote for the Iraq war, people see him as anti-war because of his stance on Vietnam. At the same time, his military innoculates him from LOOKING weak on terrorism or National Security issues. It seems like the Democratic electorate doesn't mind that they seem to be nominating someone that was 'fooled' just like them over Iraq. Remember, during the war, even a majority of Democrats supported the effort

Regardless of who gets the nomination, the election will revolve on two perilous main tracks: the economy and terrorism.

As of today, things are on pace for a Democratic victory. However, either one of the two rails could shift at any time. For example if we start seeing massive job growth and the economy shows REAL signs of turning around (a very real danger). Another very real danger would be the capture of bin Laden. If one or both of these shift, then * will be treated by the media as the lone conquering voice in the wilderness who will be swept into reelection.

Either one of those events would probably sink Democratic chances.

Why has Dean failed so far? He got off message and started talking ideology and policy.

BUSH is the issue

Why have Clark and Edwards faltered? It's not about specific issues.

BUSH is the issue

Why has Kucinich failed? It's not about ideology.

BUSH is the issue

Kerry has carefully crafted an image as the antidote for Bush

That's why he was winning.

If the other campaigns want to compete... they had better get back on message soon.





*Disclaimer, I am still voting for Howard Dean in the Florida primary... if he remains on the ballot.

[emanymton]

1. Bush Is The Issue

Slam home the message, "Bush lied, people died."

When and where has the Shrub not lied?

The rich have gooten richer by stealing from the people's government. Name one thing that has improved since the Shrub occupied 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

ABB!

[JCMach1]

2. That's why Kerry is on track right now....

His campaign is ON ISSUE.

[Lexingtonian]

3. pretty good analysis

But the thing is probably even simpler.

Kerry has a liberal record he can't run away from and is a hard man who clearly knows what is important and relevant. He wins, even though he doesn't appeal greatly to people who respond to projected emotion. The hardened realists go for him.

Clark, Edwards, and Dean have more conservative records and problems convincing voters that they have adequate combinations of hardness, insight, and conviction. They try to make up for it with emotional appeals. But the realistic voters aren't persuaded- they won't be strong enough, should they make it into office, to perform adequately. The common impression at present is that under pressure Dean will fail, Edwards will cave, Clark will bungle in dealings with a Republican Congress. They are relative conservatives with regional appeal (Dean-North, Clark-Midwest/?West, Edwards-South), whatever else their merits.

We are at war with the reactionaries and have been for nearly 15 years now. The national electorate is now finally a little over 50% socially liberal and about 65% economic conservative, each slipping about 3% further liberal every Presidential election. After the price paid and privations, now is not the time to run, or even elect, a social conservative or economic liberal as Democratic nominee.

It is due time to win the war in the social policy arena and to roll back corporate excesses and privileges protected by a social group wedge politics. On the ground it is unrealistic to campaign against the corporate interest economic order directly- that time will come in 15 years, right now it's a loser given the fragile state of the social security net and faith American workers invest (rightly or wrongly) in their companies over their government.

[NV1962]

4. Man oh man

This I take exception to:

Clark, Edwards, and Dean have more conservative records and problems convincing voters that they have adequate combinations of hardness, insight, and conviction. They try to make up for it with emotional appeals. But the realistic voters aren't persuaded- they won't be strong enough, should they make it into office, to perform adequately. The common impression at present is that under pressure Dean will fail, Edwards will cave, Clark will bungle in dealings with a Republican Congress.

Strike Clark and Dean off that list, will you. On Dean I'll be brief: he managed to survive whitebread country long enough as a tough but pragmatically liberal governor to deserve a silly putdown like that. I could apply the same rationale about Clark, just for one example pointing out his AA/EO record (of which I doubt you really made an effort to understand it, in spite the umpteen topics that passed the board here) but instead, I'll give you a link to another topic, so that you can see how much convincing power this "liberal" Kerry has, in spite of goodness knows how many deals and compromises in the Senate that he apparently manages to "explain" to an apathetic public. Rest assured, the prodigious silkscreen of that other Senator from NC is regarded just as much, um, as a convincing "liberal" with staying power in "our" quarters. Have at it, and read this.

Tough liberal eh?

Don't think so. Point out a major feat in his Senate years that most people easily identify him with. Zip I tell you. Well-groomed and smoothtalking, that he is. But since you insist on records... That's precisely where the problem is for me. Saying things with a stern expression like "quit crying in your teacups" doesn't exonerate his, let's say, unstable voting behavior - let alone his outlandish explanations - however well they may resonate with whomever pays little attention, and that I'm sad to admit applies to the whopping majority of Nielsen families that somewhere between Janet Jackson's nipple and reruns of Lacy Peterson's murder case manages to pick up just enough name recognition to back the winner. Because that's what people like most of all: whichever of "the other guys" most appears like "the winner." Smackdown, baby! That's how most people vote; precious few have any clue what the differences between a Dean, an Edwards or a Clark are. Kucinich, the poor sod, has it easier: he's pegged as the commie extremist pinko of the lot.

That's freaking pathetic enough as it is - it's flat out laughable that you somehow manage to present the case that Kerry is more of a "tough hombre" to bring about change. He may talk the talk, but his track record proves he's not confident enough to find his way around when he's supposed to walk all by himself, without reminding pointers to the L-word.

Sorry, but no sale here.

And yes, I can understand how among Dean supporters a similar frustration is reaching a boiling point; go ahead, make your pitch with this fabulous "tough and proven liberal."

But if you don't mind I'll be standing over there, booing with the rest. Oh - and don't come crying in my glass of vodka when your chap folds like an Italian accordeon.

[JCMach1]

5. Touche

:)

[JCMach1]

6. IF you recall when THIS was Howard Dean's message

HE was the frontrunner...

Bush IS the issue...!!!

[ShaneGR]

7. AGREED, this is all about Bush

Do you like Bush, yes or no?

It really didn't matter much who the candidate was on the Dem side, as long as he was capable enough not to harm himself.

[pintobean]

8. I assume......

....you have a job.
"For example if we start seeing massive job growth and the economy shows REAL signs of turning around (a very real danger)."

[JCMach1]

9. I point this out as a danger from the ordinary business cycle

public policy can affect this cycle, but sometimes it can move of its own accord...

That is indeed a danger...


Actually, I am a recent economic regugee from the U.S.

I left because surviving with a salary in education was no longer working in the U.S.

I am now working in a place where they treat educators with great respect, pay them well, and pay for 100% of your healthcare.

My insurance alone was going to cost over $1000 per month...

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

10. Yes. Election after first term

Is ALWAYS essentially a referendum on the incumbent's first term. It really boils down to the Reagan "Are you better off now" question.

Even all the wealthy people here in North Texas did GREAT under Clinton. All Bush has to sell is fear. Works for a while but people get tired of it. Bush/Rove's mistake was to push this fear/war button too early (midterms)--they won midterms but may have cost themselves the GE. But if they win this too then they win it all and we lose it all.

[IndianaGreen]

11. Regime change is the issue

ABB is merely changing draperies in the White House.