Dean should have fiercely contested Arizona and Washington

[ludwigb]

When the story of the campaign is written, the Wisconsin strategy will not seem like a good idea. The anti-Kerry vote will be split in Wisconsin 2-3 ways, and by then the pro-Kerry momentum will be too strong. Even a defeat in Wisconsin won't stop the Kerry machine now.

Dean had a better chance for a win in Washington anyway.

Dean should have campaigned hard for a close 2nd in Arizona and gone for the turn-around victory in Washington. Now Kerry has a chance to practically wrap up the nomination this Tuesday.

[JailForBush]

1. I disagree.

Dean shouldn't have even wasted his time on Washington. The de facto capital of this state is corporate Seattle, and, believe me, it's a lost cause. Between corporate corruption and Seattle's unbelievably stupid citizens, Seattle is a cosmic joke.

[displacedtexan]

2. Your description of Seattle sounds like Austin.

When you roam around Austin (I lived there for 5 years), you'd think it was the most liberal place in the country; however, it is one of the most conservaive municipal machines I've ever experienced.
Weird, indeed.

[JailForBush]

3. Twilight Zone

I sometimes wonder if there are ANY communities in America that have their collective heads screwed on straight. Seriously, corporations have penetrated virtually every corner in America with their propaganda and manipulation.

I get a kick out of your campaign button. It looks just like the anti-WASL button some people sport here in Washington State. The WASL is our high-stakes test, and is another good reminder of the connections between George W. Bush and the decline of education (to which the Democrats have contributed enormously).

[JI7]

4. socially liberal

do you think it's a case where just because people are liberal on social issues such as abortion rights, gay rights, etc it's called liberal. but many times the policies concerning businesses lean toward large corporate interests ? i would say this is the case in los angeles also probably. it's all liberal from talking to people but there is a tendency to favor large corporations.

[JI7]

6. grocery workers strike

i would say a good example is the current grocery workers strike in southern california. while people may talk about labor rights and just about everything else making it seem t hey are liberal, when something like this actually occurs you hear people start to complain about those on strike because it's ruining their shopping. never mind what the striking workers are fighting for such as health care, enough pay to make a decent living etc.

[baby_bear]

7. Are you speaking of the same Seattle I live in?

Our state government is highly parochial, indeed, but Seattle is nothing like your description, in my opinion.

Seattle can't seem to define itself, but maybe that's okay. Some years it is progressive and some years it is staid, but the people here are not stupid, contrary to your statement.

There are definitely some weird paradigms, given the hyper-presences of Microsoft and Boeing, but the energy of the citizenry is bigger than either.

Seattle, and Washington State as a whole, are definitely "challenged."

That doesn't mean the people are stupid, or that the state is a lost cause. I still hold out hope for a state income tax one of these days.

But then, I am an optimist, and a Seattle DUer...

s_m

p.s. Phil Talmadge for governor; and long live a two-newspaper town!
(Seattle Times and Seattle P-I)!!

[JailForBush]

11. Am I speaking of the same Seattle you live in?

I'm talking about the Seattle that lies between Bellingham and Tacoma; Washington's largest city and de facto capital.

"The people here are not stupid, contrary to your statement."

I've seen no evidence of intelligence in the political arena. How do you explain Mayor Paul Schell? Mayor Greg Nickels? I spent sixteen years working for the Seattle School District, and I could count the intelligent teachers I met on the fingers of one hand.

There are virtually no activists in this city. The media talk about activists a lot, but they're just operatives the establishment tries to palm off as activists. It isn't hard to fool the public in Seattle.

"There are definitely some weird paradigms, given the hyper-presences of Microsoft and Boeing, but the energy of the citizenry is bigger than either."

WHAT energy? Sheez, I ran for public office three times, and I was utterly apalled at the apathy. The first time, I attended maybe half a dozen public forums. Some events were attended by as few as a dozen people - including corrupt principals and school board members. The last time I ran, the city didn't hold any forums at all - and the public didn't seem to notice.

In some respects, Seattle is an Orwellian nightmare. The corruption and back-stabbing in this city are unbelievable, yet it's virtually invisible, thanks to establishment manipulation and public apathy and stupidity.

"Phil Talmadge for governor; and long live a two-newspaper town!
(Seattle Times and Seattle P-I)!!"

I haven't checked Phil Talmadge out yet, but a friend told me he took a home away from some guy in his 70's who was busted for owning pot. That's very disturbing, if true.

And why are you celebrating the Seattle Times and P-I? Aren't you aware of how corrupt those papers are? Sheez, media corruption is one of the biggest issues of our time!

[baby_bear]

14. Sounds like some sour grapes there

Perhaps having something to do with losing elections?

Yesterday, the energy at the caucuses was electric. Likewise in the several protests/marches I participated in here in 2002 and 2003.

I don't "celebrate" The Seattle Times, but the P-I is good. Ken Bunting is a stand-up guy. Still, it's important to have two newspapers in town, as well as the alternatives (Weekly and Stranger being the obvious ones.)

If you know nothing of Talmadge, don't judge him on some rumor you heard. He's great. Do some research on him and consider him for governor.

I confess to not knowing a whole lot about the school system first-hand as I didn't grow up here and don't have kids. The Seattle school district is always embroiled in controversy, from what I read in the papers.

s_m

[fujiyama]

9. Your description of Seattle...

sounds like exactly that of many major cities.

[NashVegas]

15. Seattle Returns

Actually had something like 2:1:1 Dean/Kerry/Kucinich.

[robcon]

5. With what money?

The idea that Dean should have 'fiercely contested Arizona and Washington' assumes that Dean had enough money to do that.

Dean had to make choices because his budget is limited.

[ludwigb]

10. He could have

made more of an effort to simply campaign in those states. And he must have some money. Now he's got 10 days to take Wisconsin, but without a victory under his belt, how does he get people's attention?

[ShaneGR]

8. I never got the whole , "The next 9 states don't matter" strategy

But I guess they just ran out of money.

[HereSince1628]

13. It's what I call the Vermont shuffle

One step foward...test the water with your toe...back two steps...quarter turn east or west, then repeat

True you can't be said to lose money in the states you don't really play in, but you can't win them either.

Very disappointed, as much as we worked and overcame the "rally cry," turning it into a positive, Dean couldn't work to take the race to all those locations to back us up.

Dean's not dead, but he's going to have to die trying to win Wisconsin.

[bowens43]

12. You see it as anti-Kerry vote instead of pro-candidate?

I certainly hope that most voting for other candidates don't see it that way. What a sad state of affairs that would be.

[Nicholas_J]

16. Good, let the machine roll.

Latest Wisconsin polls by the way:

American Research Group, Inc. Feb 6. 2004 MoE 4 %

Likely Democratic
primary voters Feb 6

Wesley Clark 15%
Howard Dean 9%
John Edwards 10%
John Kerry 41%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
Al Sharpton 2%
Undecided 21%

The absolutely most revealing part is Deans favorable to unfavorable rating:

Awareness and favorability Aware Favorable Unfavorable Undecided


Howard Dean:
Feb 6 2004 favorable 20% unfavorable 37%

John Kerry:
Feb 6 2004 9 Favorable 53% Unfavorable 21%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/wi/


What this simply means is that a lot more people do not like or trust Dean than do like and trust him. Actually almost twoce as many.

A lot more people trust Kerry.

From what I understand, Dean campaigned a lot harderr than Kerry in both Arizona and Washington.

Remember all those posts on DU praising the massive crowds Dena was attracting in Arizona?

And if you go back and looks at the ARG polls for Arizona, you see a quite differnt picture in the favorable and unfavorable data, with Kerry and Dean having just about the same ratio's in that state.

Anything beyong a ten point lead on in a primary is essentially a landslide. Right now the Wisconsin favorable/ unfavorable ratio is the best Dean has. They are far worse in Tennessee and Virginia.





Feb 4-6 TN VA WI

Clark 20% 17% 15%
Dean 8% 9% 9%
Edwards 21% 22% 10%
Kerry 32% 35% 41%
Kucinich 1% 1% 2%
Sharpton 1% 1% 2%
Undecided 17% 15% 21%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

He is in 4th place in the next three states to come up for primaries.

his ratio in Tennessee is 21 percent favorable 44 percent unfavorable

Virginia 22 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable.




Kerry as the ighest favorability ratios in all three states.