Real Clear Politics Predicting 50/50 Senate Makeup

[Lasher]

Until yesterday we stood to gain only 4 Senate seats but James Webb just pulled ahead in the Virginia race.

RCP uses a sampling of the latest surveys to develop an average, discounting polls that they consider questionable. Here is a summary their current averages:

Arizona Kyl +9.0%
Connecticut Lieberman +11.6%
Maryland Cardin +5.3%
Michigan Stabenow +11.5%
Minnesota Klobuchar +12.7%
Missouri Talent +1.0%
Montana Tester +4.0% *
New Jersey Menendez +4.2%
Ohio Brown +11.7% *
Pennsylvania Casey +13.0% *
Rhode Island Whitehouse +6.8% *
Tennessee Corker 2.3%
Virginia Webb +1.0 *
Washington Cantwell +13.3%

* denotes pickup.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/

On October 14 RCP showed a Democratic gain of 6 seats, which is what we need to regain a majority. Here is how these races looked then:

Arizona Kyl +9.0%
Connecticut Lieberman +12.4%
Maryland Cardin +9.7%
Michigan Stabenow +13.7%
Minnesota Klobuchar +14.0%
Missouri McCaskill +1.4% *
Montana Tester +5.7% *
New Jersey Menendez +3.9%
Ohio Brown +5.5% *
Pennsylvania Casey +9.8% *
Rhode Island Whitehouse +5.6% *
Tennessee Ford +0.8% *
Virginia Allen +4.6%
Washington Cantwell +9.4%

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=2882963

On October 2 RCP showed a 50/50 makeup.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=2859165

[yourout]

1. Who would be the leader of the Senate if it was a tie?

[eallen]

2. Cheney, as VP, breaks the tie, so GOP rules the Senate on 50-50 split.

[yourout]

3. Would there still be a majority leader? Who would decide ....

leadership posts and committee chair leaders.

[Lasher]

6. Here's the way it's worked in the past

The majority party is in control of leadership posts and committee chairs, regardless of whether the VP's vote has been required to break a 50/50 tie or not. With Darth Cheney in office, the Senate races are kind of like trying to beat a train to the railroad crossing. If it's a tie we lose.

If the Senate does end up being a tie, however, we might get some concessions.

The 2000 election resulted in a Senate split down the middle. Democratic leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota became majority leader for just 17 days, between Jan. 3, 2001, when the new Senate was sworn in and Al Gore was still vice president, and the Jan. 20 inauguration of Bush and Cheney.

In returning to the majority leader position, Sen. Trent Lott (news, bio, voting record), R-Miss., negotiated with Daschle a power-sharing arrangement under which the two parties got equal numbers of seats and staff positions on committees. Republicans chose committee chairmen and controlled the agenda on the Senate floor.

Lott took some heat from his Republican colleagues at the time for being overly generous to Democrats, but it paid off four months later when Jeffords bolted from the GOP and became an independent allied with the Democrats. That put the Democrats back in control with Daschle as majority leader.

The Lott-Daschle deal stayed intact until November 2002, when Republican James Talent defeated Missouri's appointed senator, Jean Carnahan, in a special election and Republicans regained power. They've held majorities on Senate committees since then.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061024/ap_on_el_se/divided_senate

[yourout]

19. So as it sits now......a tie is a loss as far as control goes.

[Lasher]

20. Exactly right, because Darth Cheney gets to cast the tie-breaking vote.

[Demeter]

4. They Are Whistling Past the Graveyard

It's gonna be much worse for the GOP!

[Eurobabe]

5. I agree, Talent is going down, as is Corker.

So we're up 2. And now there is a chance that Lamont may blow LIEberman outta the water?

[cali]

7. I'd love to agree with you

but I think Corker takes TN, and it's a real possibility that Talent hangs on. I'm less concerned about CT- though I'd like to see Lamont win- because Lieberman will caucus with the dems.

[Lasher]

8. Our best chance for another pickup is Missouri

Election Predictions thinks we'll win that one, in addition to the 5 that RCP has listed to give us a majority.

Republican Senator Jim Talent is running for reelection in what will be a close race this November. Current state Auditor Claire McCaskill will be the Democratic challenger, and she will be a tough opponent. Talent has a net 1% approval rating, and his approval numbers have been consistently in the 48-51% range. However, it is interesting to note that his disapproval numbers have been steadily rising since May 2005. His disapproval has went from 33% in May 2005 to 43% in June. While the increase isn't too substantial, it does reflect his growing disapproval among Democrats (from 48% to 62% in May). Since April, his net approval among independent voters has gone from 24% to -5%, a worrisome decline. McCaskill has been closing the fundraising gap, and polls show this race see-sawing back and forth. Because of all these indicators favoring the challenger, this race now shifts to a VERY WEAK GAIN for the Democrats.

http://electionprediction.us/2006/09/24/missouri.aspx

[KKKarl is an idiot]

10. I agree

A Lamont win in CT would be great, but I believe that Lieberman will caucus with the Democratic party just because he does not want to loose his seniority by starting at the back of the line with the republicans. Looks like Corker may just hold it together. But I think the momentum is in the McCaskill camp in Missouri. The reason is Rush Limbaugh. He has helped McCaskill by being the moron he normally is. People are going to turn out the the polls just to vote for Michael J. Fox when the vote for McCaskill.

[Pale Blue Dot]

12. The Republicans will make a deal with him

I think that they would rather give him seniority and a high-level post that lose all control of the Senate.

Don't be fooled - Lieberman will go with whomever offers him the most power. To me, that makes him one of the most dangerous men in this year's election.

[mentalsolstice]

14. Rumor Has It...

If LIEberman wins, Rumsfield will resign, * picks LIEberman as replacement, PA repub governor will pick LIEberman's replacement.

[Lasher]

15. I've heard that one more than once, mental.

In that case I've wondered what would happen if Democrats filibustered his confirmation. That would be funny.

[mentalsolstice]

16. Watching Too Much MSNBC

I mean the CT governor would pick LIEberman's replacement...MSNBC was talking about PA governor as I was typing original...

[Lasher]

18. Don't worry, we knew what you meant. (EOM)

[Claire Beth]

13. I'm in Tennessee...

and I am afraid Porker will take the seat. I will be disappointed but not surprised. Ford, Jr has a lot of support of here, but in the end I believe the dirty tactics of the Porker campaign have helped put him ahead. I hope I am wrong and there is always HOPE!

GO FORD!!!


:dem:

[a kennedy]

9. I've bookmarked this site......RCP is pretty good arn't they???

:shrug:

[Lasher]

11. Yes, RCP is my favorite for Senate races

Don't bother with their editorials, they have a right wing slant and you'll just get yourself all upset. Election Predictions is pretty good too, and they're projecting new makeups in both the Senate and House.

http://electionprediction.us/

[Hippo_Tron]

17. WTF is up with Missouri?

Neither McCaskill nor Talent can seem to break 50%.

[Lasher]

21. Well guess what? We just retook the lead in Missouri!! (McCaskill +0.2%)

Once again RCP is projecting we will gain the six seats we need. This is not for the faint of heart.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate/mo/missouri_senate_race-12.html