What the hell is going on in Montana? Senate seat now a toss up?

[William769]

According to http://pollster.com/

[Beacho]

1. Electoral Vote has it still at 4 for Tester

electoral-vote.com

[Mass]

2. There was a poll late last week showing Tester with just a few points ahead.

But it was only one poll, and I have not seen any others.

[joefree1]

3. Slate has it leaning Dem

They use many polls.

http://www.slate.com/id/2148600

[TheVirginian]

4. The last five polls done in Montana:

10/19: Tester 46%, Burns 43% (Mason Dixon)
10/25: Tester 48%, Burns 42% (Harstad Strategic Research (DSCC internal))
10/25: Tester 51%, Burns 47% (Rasmussen)
10/30: Tester 47%, Burns 46% (Zogby International)
11/1: Tester 50%, Burns 46% (Rasmussen)

[Ignacio Upton]

5. There is a Zogby poll showing Tester only winning by 1%

Zogby is crap so I don't trust what he puts out, but the race is still close.

[William769]

6. Thanks for the links & input.

[cnlst8]

7. There are a number of factors for this tightening.

1. Montana is still a red state and change is hard. It still harder for people to vote for a Dem than a crook like Burns.
2. Money. Burn has a big money advantage, and at the near of this race end Tester is running low in funds while Burns still have over prrox $1.5 left. There are a lot more pro-Burns ads than pro-Tester ads in the media at this moment.
3. Some Democrats somewhat put this race in the win column too early and didn't allocate the necessary funds to finish Burns off.

[cnlst8]

8. Another Rasmussen poll just release 10/2. LV Tester 50% Burns 46%

premium member only, so no link up yet.

[juajen]

10. Did you mean 11/2?

N/T

[tiptoe]

9. For latest-5-polls avg, the weight of the 10/15 poll's 11% margin was replaced

by the 1% margin of the newest 10/30 Zogby poll...a net 5-poll-average margin reduction of 2% ((11% - 1%)/5)...

(Of course, some polls -- maybe many? -- are fraudulent...as recently revealed**...useful, I suppose, for bringing a race pre-election-"close" in preparation for a less-suspicious, less-discoverable election-fraud outcome-manipulation.)

**

BRIDGEPORT, Conn. (Sept. 7) - The owner of DataUSA Inc., a company that conducted political polls for the campaigns of President Bush, Sen. Joe Lieberman and other candidates, pleaded guilty to fraud for making up survey and poll results.
...
According to a federal indictment, Costin told employees to alter poll data, and managers at the company told employees to "talk to cats and dogs" when instructing them to fabricate the surveys...

Other "quality" "professionals" in the *Co mal-administration:

A 15-month inquiry by a top House Democrat has found that enforcement of the nation's food and drug laws declined sharply during the first five years of the Bush administration.

For instance, the investigation found, the number of warning letters that the Food and Drug Administration issued to drug companies, medical device makers and others dropped 54 percent, to 535 in 2005 from 1,154 in 2000.

The seizure of mislabeled, defective or dangerous products dipped 44 percent, according to the inquiry, pursued by Representative Henry A. Waxman of California, the senior Democrat on the House Government Reform Committee.

The research found no evidence that such declines could be attributed to increased compliance with regulations. Investigators at the F.D.A. continued to uncover about the same number of problems at drug and device companies as before, Mr. Waxman's inquiry found, but top officials of the agency increasingly overruled the investigators' enforcement recommendations.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/27/health/policy/27fda.html?ei=5094&en=0e25a48e6978b523&hp=&ex=1151467200&adxnnl=1&partner=homepage&adxnnlx=1151381356-vdYZeW+dnKX4c+Ur2/RAxA

[Ediacara]

11. Tester will win

The only poll showing it close is Zogby (garbage). All other polls by reputable pollsters show Tester winning by 4-11%. Additionally, apparently LSP (which is a DNC internal pollster) has been doing an exit poll of sorts WRT early voters, and Tester is trouncing Burns 58-37. The end of this campaign is a total replay of what the GOP pulled in 2004 against Schweitzer: a broken record lying about Democrats and taxes. It backfired for them two years ago, and will backfire on them now.

[Mr_Spock]

12. It's gonna be close!

I hope nobody is taking anything for granted until Nov 8th!

[Infinite Hope]

13. Undecideds are falling into place, but Tester is still favored. n/t

[BootinUp]

14. An incumbent behind this late? Toast. eom.

[POAS]

15. RCP has Tester up 2.7%

[Name removed]

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