Bass, Hodes 1 point apart in 'Monitor' poll

[cal04]

Democratic congressional candidate Paul Hodes has made sizeable gains against Republican incumbent Charlie Bass, coming from 25 points behind to transform the race into a toss-up, according to a new Monitor poll. The tightening campaign represents a nationwide shift, as the upcoming midterm elections increasingly become a referendum on President Bush, political analysts said.

"The Republican Party is in a free-fall," said Wayne Lesperance, an associate professor of political science at New England College. "This is unprecedented movement. . . . The death toll in Iraq, the Foley scandal: All of these perfect storm of things to help Democrats have happened."

Heading into Tuesday's election, Bass leads Hodes 47 to 46 percent, with 2 percent of the vote going to Libertarian Ken Blevens, according to a Monitor poll of 300 likely voters in the Second Congressional District, with a 6 percent margin of error. In the poll of 300 First District voters, U.S. Rep Jeb Bradley leads Democratic candidate Carol Shea-Porter 48 to 40 percent, with 12 percent undecided. In September, a Monitor poll put both Hodes and Shea-Porter 25 points behind their opponents.

The poll also shows Democratic Gov. John Lynch leading Republican challenger Jim Coburn 67 to 26 percent; one-third of Republicans said they would vote for Lynch.

http://concordmonitor.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061104/REPOSITORY/611040342

[plusfiftyfive]

1. That's exciting for New Hampshire!

I hope all these new liberals who moved up here from Mass will get out there and vote!

[mikeargo]

2. I'm in the other NH district

I'll do my part and vote for Carol Shea-Porter. Let's have a big turnout in the 2nd. We can do it. Let's get Bass out of there!

[cal04]

3. In NH-2, Hodes and Bass in Statistical Tie

In New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district, Paul Hodes (D) "has made sizeable gains" against Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH), "coming from 25 points behind to transform the race into a toss-up," according to a new Concord Monitor poll. Bass leads by just one point, 47% to 46%.

"The tightening campaign represents a nationwide shift, as the upcoming midterm elections increasingly become a referendum on President Bush, political analysts said."

Earlier: A new University of New Hampshire poll showed Hodes leading by eight points in a race no one expected Bass to lose.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/11/04/in_nh2_hodes_and_bass_in_statistical_tie.html

[matt819]

4. LTTEs are evenly divided

The local paper's LTTEs are evenly divided for and against Bass. The beauty of the Republican machine is that it periodically allows so-called moderates like Bass to appear to buck the party line on votes of particular concern to his constituents, usually on environmental issues. In these cases, however, the Republicans don't need Bass's vote, so he's allowed to seem to be a maverick supporting his constituents. The fact remains, however, that he votes party line more than 90% of the time. At least we vote on paper here in NH, so however it turns out, we can be pretty sure that's the way it is.

[Justice]

5. I just gave $100 today to Hodes and Shea-Porter - here is to their success!