Don't sweat the tightening in the polls....

[SaveElmer]

This happens in every election...

I well remember 1994, the newspeople all downplaying the possibility of a Republican takeover of Congress. The night of the election Dan Rather said polling showed Republicans would come up short...

The fundamentals have not changed...undecideds will break for Democrats in most close races...

I'm not saying it is in the bag, but this tightening in the generic polls (ABC 6 point Dem Lead, Pew 4 Point Dem Lead) are not at all unusual...

[bluestateguy]

1. If someone can find this poll:

There was a Washington Post poll a few days before the 1994 disaster that had Democrats up 50%-45% in the generic ballot. If someone can find it, that would be great. I can't seem to find it.

[Ninga]

2. Campaigns have gotton much dirtier in the past 12 years. Swift boating is

alive and well here in Ohio.

[grasswire]

3. the "experts" on the networks said that the Weds-Thurs polls were the...

...most predictive, the most accurate. So I think we're in good shape.

[NEDem]

4. The press needs a horse race, they need the drama

it builds ratings and sells papers.

[elperromagico]

6. You're on the right track. Tossups are far more dramatic,

as are come-from-behind wins. Usually, they don't materialize.

A thoughtful analysis of polls (rather than the one poll "analysis" the media uses) reveals that these "tightenings" and "surges" do not change the predicted results much at all. At best, they're worth a fraction of a point.

[NanceGreggs]

5. At this juncture, the GOP knows they're about to get ...

... kicked in the ass. The only question left to be answered on Tuesday is how hard.

[Wickerman]

7. At the least it will inspire GoTV

Democrats who might have stayed home should now be inspired!

[enough already]

8. Post - Kerry factor, perhaps

Hope not, but possible.

[SayitAintSo]

9. Thanks... I needed that n/t

[pretzel4gore]

10. just the fact the gopigs are in it is scary....

truly, the repukes could believe anything; what they are really representative of is a kind of national death wish, or suicidal rage at not being loved despite the exposure of their true horrible-ness, or something. read history - the fears of oppressed people caused all sorts of alice in wonderland foolishness throughout history, such as the holocaust or the gulags, but ferchrissake this is the WSA, the dubia states of america! remember 'woodstock'? country joe's 'fixin to die' rag? robert oppenheimer? the gi bill? larry flint? high noon? jack kerouac? our whole social order seems it was based on idea that authoritahs were, usually, nasty bastards who wanted to force something on the people, in secret of course! yet here we are with the gopig/repukes/mediawhores having a say in what happens?

[Zynx]

11. If we actually won the popular vote by 15%, that would have been huge.

It would have led to 250+ seats. 6-8% is much more likely.

[RoyGBiv]

12. The generic poll is meaningless ...

It always has been. The most is does is gauge a general trend among all voters, which can be useful for large scale strategizing on national issues, but in individual races that means absolutely nothing.

Shortly before the 2004 election, the generic congressional poll had Democrats up by as much as 10 points.