Virginians finally will have their say in Democratic primary

[bigtree]

By David Lerman
Washington Bureau
February 8, 2004

"This is a state that generally doesn't have an opportunity to say much in national elections," said Alan A. Diamonstein, a former Newport News state legislator and longtime Democratic party activist. "This time we do."

The state's decision to hold a primary this early in the year has made Virginia a key battleground as the Democratic contest reaches a critical stage.

What happens Tuesday in Virginia and Tennessee could either propel the frontrunner, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, toward a rapid victory or breathe new life into the campaigns of either of his two closest rivals: North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and retired Gen. Wesley Clark.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who skipped an appearance in Richmond on Saturday, is looking beyond Virginia to make what could be his last stand in the Wisconsin primary Feb. 17.

http://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-56225sy0feb08,0,7905217.story?coll=dp-headlines-topnews

[joshcryer]

1. What the hell, his two closest rivals, Edwards and Clark?

I thought Dean had the second most number of delegates?

[arewethereyet]

3. super delegates

they can change their votes at will

[Tweed]

9. Ah something called polls

The article is about the Virginia race. Dean isn't focusing on the state. The polls reflect that. Therefore, delegates don't matter and as pointed out before, superdelegates can change. Some already have.

[Nicholas_J]

16. Deans superdelegates are starting to withdraw their endorsements

Congresswoman Kilpatrick of Michigan just withdrew her endorsement of Dean today. As an elected official's district votes, so the superdelegates usually change their support or in order to reflect the wishes of their constituents.

Congresswoman Kilpatrick withdraws Dean endorsement
Associated Press

DETROIT - U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick on Sunday withdrew her endorsement of presidential candidate Howard Dean, who came in second in Michigan's Democratic caucuses behind John Kerry.

"I believe that Gov. Howard Dean, Dr. Dean, is an experienced leader and has a plan to bring health care to our nation's families and quality jobs back to America," Kilpatrick said in a statement. But, she noted, "the people of Michigan and my constituents in the 13th Congressional District have spoken."

Kilpatrick had campaigned for Dean in Michigan and was the only member of state's Congressional delegation to have endorsed Dean, who received 17 percent of the votes in Michigan's caucuses. Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, finished with 52 percent.

"I congratulate Sen. Kerry on his victory," said Kilpatrick, who added that she "will strongly work for and support the Democratic nominee" in November's general election.


http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/7907833.htm

[lastknowngood]

2. red state doesn't matter

sorry for the reallity check.

[arewethereyet]

4. I'm a Virginian, it matter to me.

and my state is generally green when seen from the sky.

In any event, our delegates votes count the same as anyone else's.

[deminflorida]

6. Virginia is Huge...

No doubt about it. I lived in Virginia for nine years....good to see you guys getting attention.

[arewethereyet]

8. We were huge in the 1700 and 1800's

kinda dropped off lately but I still love it here. Glad we're getting our 15 minutes of fame.

[bigtree]

10. How much is this primary there affected by D.C.

Does the proximity to the city soften the conservative vote? Is Alexandria more liberal? What are the moderate, liberal areas to watch?

[DjTj]

11. Northern Virginia is more liberal...

...and Kerry has a big lead there.

Clark and Edwards are splitting the real Southern parts.

Personally, I think the more conservative parts are the areas to watch, because winning there will put the state in play for the General Election.

We have a Democratic Governor and Lt. Governor, and we actually picked up seats in the Legislature in 2002. With the right candidate, Virginia can be in play.

[Alopenia]

12. Edwards will win SW Virginia

primarily because he's the only one who's spent any amount of time here. The Roanoke Times is very progressive, but even with that, no Democratic candidate can overtake Bush in these parts, with the exception of Blacksburg (Virginia Tech)

[bigtree]

13. Great insight!

Thanks! Best wishes for your candidate! :toast:

[DjTj]

15. I was doing phone calls to SW Virginia...

...and they were mostly deciding between Clark and Edwards (and I managed to talk some people into Edwards).

When I was calling northern and eastern Virginia, it was mostly between Kerry and Edwards.

It was actually a lot more fun talking with people in SW Virginia because they were polite and willing to talk while a lot more Northern Virginians just kinda wanted to get rid of me.

And speaking of Blacksburg, this was the best moment from that event:

EDWARDS: Hold up those signs up, if you don't mind, in the back. That's who...

UNIDENTIFIED MALES: (Holding Bush/Cheney Signs): Boo! Boo! Boo!

EDWARDS: That -- that's who leaving the White House come November.

[arewethereyet]

17. I'm curious how Clark will do in Tidewater (eastern)

one of his ads I saw seemed rather insulting to the efforts of the troops, the family and friends of which represent a big part of the tidewater population. He called what was occurring over there a "mess" that he was going to get us out of.

If my loved one is over there busting his ass performing that "mess" I can't like the tone.

Lots of military to the north and east as well. With Edwards wanting a better plan for what Americans could expect from that 87 billion I suspect that will resonate well with military families who are pretty damn interested in that too. Been a while since dad or mom was home.

[Nicholas_J]

18. Problem is

That the vast majority of Democratic Voters in Virginia are in the Northern areas of the state.

[bigtree]

14. Thanks for the info

I suspected the North was more liberal. I'm in Maryland and I have in-laws there. I've been to other parts of Virginia that resemble the deep South. Maryland has Southern oriented areas too. I'm mostly a suburban boy though. I just drive through.

[Guava Jelly]

5. beg your pardon

Every State Matters
If we won one red state in 2000 we wouldnt have needed Florida
Besides IF a dem candidate does well in red states it may reflect possitively on other races house seats senate seats and govs

[Zech Marquis]

7. oh yes we DO matter!

we MATTER my friend, because there's alot of angry people here who want to see * gone, and w can make one hel of a difference. I dare say that when I vote Tuesday morning, we could be making quite a HUGE statement. Esecially the democrat stronghold here in the 3rd District.

[King of New Orleans]

19. Virginia is an interesting state, now and in the fall

Northern Virginia isn't particularly Southern and that's 1/3 of the state. Because of the proximity to DC many people are employed by the gov't in one form or another. It has a beltway mentality. Dole ran better here vs Clinton than George Sr. did. Gore actually ran a little better in N. Va vs GWB than Clinton did vs Dole (one of the very few places in the country that can be said).

The Tidewater does have a heavy military presence, though that presence is heavily Navy (Kerry's branch, not Clark's)

The rest of VA is a mixture of Southern terrain. Greater Richmond tends to split along racial lines. The Shenandoah Valley, Harry Byrd's old stomping ground, is staunching Republican. Roanoke, Charlottesville, Blacksburg, and Martinsville are more progressive and sometimes swing heavily to the Dems. The far West is more like W.Virginia and usually produces a modest Democratic edge.

Kerry has a big edge in the North. A more modest edge in Tidewater. A pretty solid lead in metro Richmond-Charlottesville. Edwards probably has a solid lead in the rest of the state.

Bush did only get a little over 52% of the vote in VA. Given N.VA and the Tidewater, it's a state that should definitely be on Kerry's list, if he's the nominee.