Edwards and Clark are cannobolizing each other - Kerry will win TN and VA

[ringmastery]

If you add up both Clark and Edwarsd support, they beat Kerry collectively. That's not to say that if either Clark or Edwards drop out, all of their supporters would go to Kerry, but I would figure a very sizeable chunk wouldn't considering they are southerners.

The ticket had to become a two man race last week. It didn't happen and Clark and Edwards will both dig their graves because of it, sadly.

From ARG:

Feb 4-6 TN VA WI

Clark 20% 17% 15%
Dean 8% 9% 9%
Edwards 21% 22% 10%
Kerry 32% 35% 41%
Kucinich 1% 1% 2%
Sharpton 1% 1% 2%
Undecided 17% 15% 21%

[BootinUp]

1. Undoubtedly, one will prevail (Clark v Edwards)

I expect by Super Tuesday we will have a true two man race.

[MAlibdem]

10. Too little too late

sort of a pity

[jfxgillis]

14. No. By Super Tuesday it'll be a One-man race, or ..

... and Every-man race.

If Kerry crumbles, everyone stays in and it's a dogfight 'til July.

If he doesn't crumble, well, how can the other candidates stay in when one guy is winning big time after time and everyone else is trading 2nd and 4th place finishes?

[BootinUp]

15. I guess I expect something

to bring Kerry down a notch between now and 3/2. This is politics, sooner or later something is gonna stick to him.

[jfxgillis]

20. It has to be more than a notch

with this momentum, but it's distinctly possible.

The thing is, game theoretically, this is "multiple player, zero-sum."

With Kerry having the decided strategic advantage, for the other players to think "If I can only get it to two, I can win" is a losing strategy because by the time the other players have been knocked out, Kerry's advantage will be insurmountable.

Really, the only way Kerry does not win the nomination BARRING A MAJOR ERROR, is for PRECISELY the following scenario to play out: Clark wins TN, Edwards wins VA and Dean wins WI (you could switch the TN/VA results, too). That keeps everyone in, it would wound Kerry by destroying his momentum and make Super Tuesday a scramble.

If Super Tuesday's a scramble, the rest of the race is scramble, and if the rest of the race is scramble, it goes to Boston, where the players basically start over from zero with a reduced field on the second ballot.

[BootinUp]

22. There is more than one scenario

that could result in Kerry not being the nominee.

[jfxgillis]

27. In Game theory, there are plausible and implausible strategies

Yeah. It could turn out that Kerry's birth certificate was faked and that he's not a U.S. citizen.

But you can't bank on somesuch implausible outcome. Yeah, there are probably minor variations on my scenario above, but not many, trust me. The window's closing fast on possible outcomes.

If Edwards or Clark knock one of themselves out on Tues (One win both TN and VA, the other drops out), they still have to fight off Dean and the cannibalization process mentioned at the top of this thread will continue with those two, while Kerry continues to lead.

And by the time THAT scrap is settled, it'll be Super Tuesday, Kerry's lead will be all but insurmountable, and that will be that.

In other words, in multiple-player-zero-sum, when one player is threatening to win, all the other players HAVE TO stop competing with each other and co-operate with each other to compete with the leading player.

That's all for it. Nothing else will work. They can't worry about getting it to a two-player game because every move that weakens a player other than the leader increases the leaders' advantage marginally, and a marginal advantage in a player already leading has tremendous consequences.

[LiberalBushFan]

39. If it's the prisoner's dilemma we're thinking of here

then it's not a good analogy because it assumes Edwards prefers Clark to Kerry, which he doesn't because Edwards is closer to Kerry. And I'm sure Clark realizes that if Kerry is stopped by Edwards it makes little difference.

[jfxgillis]

40. Well, Game Theory is more complicated than just that

But yeah, you got the general idea.

[BootinUp]

41. Your theory ignores what already happened

in Iowa.

The reason no one is attacking Kerry right now, is that they are afraid somone else will be the benefactor.

The solution to that problem (assuming it would happen again). Is either for everyone to attack Kerry at the same time or for one candidate to knock the others out before taking on the frontrunner.

You say there is not enough time. The last two weeks of January indicate differently.

[NNN0LHI]

2. They ain't doing Dean much good by staying in either if you noticed? n/t

[Skip Intro]

5. Actually, it looks like Dean's strategy might be right to me

If you accept the premise that Clark and Edwards are digging their own graves in VA and TN, which I'm not sure I do btw, then doesn't that validate Dean's strategy of not focusing on these contests, allowing Clark and Edwards to slay each other, leaving Dean and Kerry as the most viable candidates going into super Tuesday?

That's the way I would see the proposed scenario playing out, anyway.

[NNN0LHI]

6. You may be on to something n/t

[DoctorBombay]

32. I thought of this, too

If Kerry wins both TN and VA, there will be a lot of pressure on Clark and Edwards to bow out. If that happens, it is a two-man race. Dean would still be a very long shot; he would need to pick-up a really high percentage of the Clark and Edwards crowd.

[Beaker]

24. Yeah, if they both dropped out, Dean might even break double digits

:eyes:

[DjTj]

3. ...Those 1200 votes in Oklahoma are killing us...

When Clark announced his candidacy on the same day as Edwards, that didn't really help either.

I was real surprised when Clark went negative on Edwards this week.

I bet Kerry is loving this. We're rolling out a red carpet for him.

Edwards has made up 10%+ deficits in weekends before, but it may be tough to get over the top in both states.

[NNN0LHI]

4. The political graveyard is full of guys who have underestimated Edwards

He is one mean motherscratcher. He would tear Bush limb from limb in a one on one.

Don

[BootinUp]

7. Isn't this just his second election?

[NNN0LHI]

9. Yep. JE don't mess around. He gets right down to business n/t

[Beaker]

25. but how does that equate to a "political graveyard full of guys"-

who have underestimated him???

[arewethereyet]

8. pity the General chose to listen to his wife

or we could be causing Kerry to sweat a lot more.

[Beaker]

26. the same could be said of Edwards-

and his mommy.

[mmonk]

11. Note the undecided totals

[Leilani]

12. I don't know how much they take votes from each othrer

They are both Southerners, but appeal to different groups of people.

I think Clark voters think nat'l security & war in Iraq/troops, international relations are very important topics. These voters would not go to Edwards; that's his weakness.

And vice/versa. If one dropped out, Kerry might get more votes. Also, some people might stay home, because they are particularly strong for Clark or Edwards.

I think the whole thing is a bogus argument, trying to put pressure on one or the other.

[AP]

13. I think Edwards will not pull out. He likes Kerry well enough and he...

...believes himself to be the candidate who can solve the problems Americans face.

He has absolutely no incentive to drop out.

I think Kerry vs Edwards is the debate that needs to happen within the democratic party.

One stands for a sensible demographic strategy+100% laser-sighted focus on the class issue in America. The other stands for an odd combination of liberalism+business friendliness+nationali security sensibility with a kamikazi demographic insanity.

I don't see what anyone else adds to this debate.

I hope Clark sees that he doesn't bring much to the table which these two don't, and isn't enough of a class warrior and too much of a war warrior and drops out so that we can have the Kerry vs Edwards debate.

[DjTj]

16. Edwards also doesn't have the money problems...

...that other candidates seem to be dealing with.

I see Edwards sticking around for a while longer, if only because the campaign can afford it.

I got to see some of our smart money management up close this week in Virginia. While Dean and Clark have tried to build national organizations, Edwards spent almost no money in Virginia until the past 2 weeks. The Roanoke office was one guy in his house, but they opened an office downtown just 2 weeks ago and staffed it with people from New Hampshire and Iowa.

Clark was running ads in Virginia for weeks and pulled them this last week. If that's not a waste of money I don't know what is. Edwards didn't start running ads until last week, and I think he's buying a lot more votes this way.

If he runs his budget like he runs his campaign, I look forward to balanced budgets within a few years.

[ShaneGR]

17. The Edwards camp runs a pretty tight ship

I think the idea here is to get a 2 man race, since I don't see Clark beating Edwards in TN or VA (Regardless of Kerry winning), we'll have 2 legitimate candidates to suck up air time on the news until March 2nd, where Kerry will prevail and a few weeks later select Edwards as his running mate.

The Gang of 500 has already spoken.

[knight_of_the_star]

18. Don't count your chickens before they are hatched

Those states (I know Tennessee does at least) have open primaries where independents and Republicans can vote for Dems, and the polls ONLY sample Democrats. And there are a LOT of undecided votes in those two states as it is. Don't count your chickens yet, things can turn around.

[AP]

19. I don't think Dems seat delegates from states with open Pres primaries

It's only Dems voting in those primaries, regardless of what they do in other primaries.

[knight_of_the_star]

36. Right...

So they deny voters delegates in states with open primaries? That sounds more than a little undemocratic to me.

[AP]

38. No. They do what Michigan had to do.

They run a separate primary just with the presidential race on it.

Only Dems can vote for the Dem presidential nominee or the convention won't recognize that state's delegates. Therefore all the states which have open primaries (like MI) have to run separate primaries. Which the all do.

[KittyWampus]

28. Edwards Brings Absolutely NOTHING To The Table- The Man Is Another Reagan

a good actor who would only be a puppet.

He has shown no capacity for deep understanding of the issues or for offering real detailed solutions.

Neither has he shown any Leadership.

Furthermore, he doesn't think Bush exaggerated the threat that was Saddam.

[DjTj]

33. Reagan was President for 8 years...

...last time I heard we were trying to get elected and reelected.

If you don't think he has offered any real solutions, you may have forgotten the fact that one of his campaing solutions is "Real Solutions for America" and his campaign bus is the "Real Solutions Express". He hands out a book called "Real Solutions".

If you would like to read the most detailed policy platform of any of the candidates, you can see this web page entitled, "John Edwards: Real Solutions for America" http://www.johnedwards2004.com/issues.asp

I'm not sure what you mean by showing leadership but he led the fight for the Patient's Bill of Rights and he is certainly leading a campaign that has exceeded all expectations.

I don't know where you are getting the exaggeration line from. I don't believe that's what he said and I'd like to see a quote if that's what you think.

[Taeger]

29. Clark brings nothing????

I hope Clark sees that he doesn't bring much to the table which these two don't, and isn't enough of a class warrior and too much of a war warrior and drops out so that we can have the Kerry vs Edwards debate.

What ?????

He brings an AMAZING presence. He brings AMAZING leadership.

He was an economics professor, a CEO, commander of NATO, graduated first in his class at West Point and he was ALSO in Vietnam. Unlike Edwards he came from a meager background.

If there is a choice as to who should drop out, it should be Edwards. Honestly, I think he'd make a good Veep for either.

[Kathleen04]

31. I say that

the other two don't bring anything new to the table that Clark doesn't already have.

He's the all in one candidate. :)

[DjTj]

34. They bring experience in winning an election.

They are both better at playing this game than Clark is, and that's why they're leading in press coverage and in the polls.

Clark is the all-in-one resume, but Kerry and Edwards are both better candidates.

[Doctor_J]

21. I think Clark

is splitting both his key demographics - the Southerners with JRE and the soldiers with JFK.

'stoo bad. He'd have made a great president.

[John_H]

23. You try telling two guys running for prez that one of them should quit

Enough ego to go around, folks.

[LiberalBushFan]

30. Neither of them has incentive to help the other beat Kerry, here's why

Edwards wouldn't mind Kerry being the nominee if he loses. I bet he'd endorse Kerry if he dropped out. The only reason he wants to stop Kerry is so he can be nominated instead.

Clark also has no reason to drop out to help Edwards. Clark realizes that there is little difference between Edwards and Kerry in terms of what they would do as President. He'd probably rather have Dean overtake Kerry, but dropping out would certainly not ensure that and he'd be better off continuing his own battle.

[DjTj]

35. C-A-N-N-I-B-A-L-I-Z-I-N-G

spellcheck.

[RafterMan]

37. Well, I don't think Clark can win

But if he stays around long enough to keep Edwards out of it, at least that's something positive.

[Bad Thoughts]

42. Kerry is the man to beat

I am sorry, but I must disagree. Kerry is that man that both Clark and Edwards must beat. In every state he has the automatic lead without having to campaign there. Everytime another candidate stumbles, it is Kerry that picks up new supporters. If either Edwards or Clark were to drop out, their supporters would not go over to the other southerner but would more than likely choose Kerry.