What if two of these candidates dropped: Dean, Edwards, Clark?

[TheBigDemo]

If one of the three stayed and the other two dropped would they stand a chance to beat Kerry?

Kerry is getting about 33-50% of the vote. This means that 50-67% would vote for someone else. Would Dean and Edwards Supporters go for Clark if they dropped out? Would Clark and Edwards supporters go for Dean if they dropped out? Would Clark and Dean supporters go for Edwards if they dropped out?

Or would they go to Kerry as each one dropped out? I honestly think Dean's best days are behind him. I think Edwards or Clark could become the supposed "Alternative Kerry Candidate" if the other two dropped out.

Remember, the overwhelming majority of delegates are yet to be decided. If Dean and either Clark or Edwards drop after the Virginia and Tennessee Primary, one could rise up, and challenge Kerry in the remaining primaries and still get the majority of delegates or keep Kerry from getting a majority of the votes. Further, consider that states like Texas, Florida, and Georgia, which are huge, would pretty much go uncontested to either Edwards or Clark if only one is gone.

I really do think the Virginia and Tennessee Primaries are the most important and pivotal. If Edwards beats Clark in both Virginia and Tennessee, Edwards becomes the "Alternative Kerry Candidate". If Clark beats Edwards in both Virginia and Tennessee, Clark becomes the "Alternative Kerry Candidate". If Kerry can get more votes than Clark and Edwards combined in either state, or if Clark beats Edwards in one state and Edwards beats Clark in the other, well Kerry wins.

Odds of winning the nomination:

Kerry: 50%
Edwards 20%
Clark 20%
Dean 10%

James K.

[Closer]

1. I think

Clark and/or Edwards drops after Tuesday if neither wins VA or TN.

[quinnox]

2. Kerry seems to be the one people want

Here are my odds of winning (this is fun):

Kerry 2 to 1

Edwards 10 to 1

Clark 20 to 1

Dean one million to 1

Sharpton ten million to 1

Kucinich one billion to 1

[daveskilt]

4. People want what they are told to want

and dislike what they are told to dislike. angrydean, krazykucinich and sillysharpton are actually pretty on the ball (apart from sharpton's fiscal policies - send that guy to school)

[TheBigDemo]

5. Who has the other +32%

Kerry 2:1 =50%
Edwards 10:1 = 10%
Clark 20:1 = 5%

Dean 1000000:1 = >1%
Sharpton 100000000:1 >1%
Kucinich 1000000000:1 >1%

James K.

[quinnox]

6. heh, ok put Kerry at 82% chance

not sure what that would calculate to using x to 1 odds.

[TheBigDemo]

7. It would be greater than 8:10, pretty high. nt

[daveskilt]

3. just like Kerry became the "not howard dean"

hey maybe howard can turn it around...wishful thinking

[mmonk]

8. That's assuming

Kerry wouldn't pick up any of the supporters of whoever left the race.

[TheBigDemo]

10. I mentioned this possibility if you read my entire statement

However,

I think if people wanted Kerry as their second choice, they would have moved to him by now, or be sitting on the fence considering the situation the other three are in right now. Just like with Dean, not many of the undecideds went to Dean went the vote was cast, he was already considered.

James K.

[AP]

9. I think internal polling is showing that lots of Clark voters would go E.

Don't know about Dean voters.

[SoCalDem]

11. There would be one left

:evilgrin:

seroiusly... I hope they all stay in til the end.. It's not fair for the two largest venues to get left-overs:(

[ChangeAgent]

12. Edwards can defeat Kerry one-on-one...

If Edwards merely extends his campaign until both Clark and Dean terminate theirs -- so long as his showings remain strong (not necessarily #1) -- he has the ability to upset Kerry, perhaps as soon as both California and New York on March 2, and turn the race upside down. The reason? He's a far superior debater than Kerry. The great, largely unnoticed strength of Edwards in relation to all these other candidates is that he has a superb ability extemporaneously to frame and make a logical argument, stemming from his years as a trial lawyer. While Kerry declaims in stentorian tones, apparently believing that haughtiness is a form of persuasion, Edwards gets himself out of the way and makes his points in crisp fashion -- providing a personal, story-based dimension by referring both to his own values and his listeners' experience, insisting on the unfairness of the present system, and driving home the substance of what he believes. That's why he is connecting electrically with ordinary voters -- again, largely unnoticed by the national media, who are oblivious to anything but Kerry endorsements by fellow pols and Dean's free-fall. If Edwards gets Kerry one-on-one, the toe-to-toe performance comparison would begin to wither Kerry's support immediately, since it's built on nothing more than the assumption of electability, not Kerry's inherent appeal.

[AP]

13. Discursively speaking, I've NEVER seen a politician as capable as Edwards

in making an argument and persuading people.

Tony Blair is incredibly good at doing this. Edwards is better.