Does Carville have a point about Dean?

[BluegrassDem]

I, like many here, was kinda surprised at Carville wanting to dump Dean since we had a good election result. But I wonder if Carville is hitting on something here? How come we couldn't have won 50 seats? I know that Dean, Emanuel, and Schumer worked their asses off for what we won, but is true that we could've won more seats had money been allocated properly? Don't get me wrong, I'm happy with the election, but I'm greedy too. I want to win every friggin GOP seat possible. If Dean made decisions that hampered our results, then that's not good for him. I don't think he should be dumped though, but perhaps he shouldn't be so lauded either. 50 seats would've given us control for the next 20 years.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/washington/washington/entries/2006/11/15/carville_says_d.html

[smoogatz]

1. Simple answers to simple questions:

No.

[ProSense]

2. No, Carville is an ass! n/t

[BluegrassDem]

9. Does he have a point?

It's not about Carville being an ass or not or that he's a Clintonite. Does the man have a point? Could we or could we have not won 50 seats? This is not a thread about Clinton vs. Dean or any of that shit. But Carville is a tactical genius and I respect him for that. He really thinks we could've won 50 seats and the thought of not winning that kinda makes me ill somewhat.

[madfloridian]

19. No, and there are attacks at Kos on Judy Dean today.

If you knew anything about the districts, you would know we were lucky for what we did.

And I find this amazing, simply amazing.

This is very obvious.

[Mass]

33. Judy Dean? Lower and lower.

[LaPera]

28. Terry McAuliffe types as head of the DNC is what Carville & the DLC want to see...

Corporate fucks completely subservient to the corporations in favor of the Democratic grass roots progressive voters...In this climate, you can't have both...

And I still won't dismiss republican electronic voting machines as stealing the seats Carville speaks of.

[karynnj]

35. Why is Carville a tactical genius?

How many wins other than BC'a 1992 win did he engineer?
Bill Clinton was facing a President with an approval rating below 40% - almost 10 points lower than W in 2004. There was a 3rd party candidate who mainly bashed Bush in the beginning. Before Perot dropped out, there was a point where Carville's candidate was 3rd out of 3.

Bill Clinton has been praised as the best politician of his generation. Given all this why is Carville a tactical genius - If W were at 40% Mary Beth Cahill would have won with John Kerry. She nearly won with W between 48 and 51.

[ProSense]

I answered, no!

Now, since the DSCC and DCCC are responsible for recruiting candidates, maybe they need to look at the candidates they recruited. Why didn't they recruit a candidate to beat the pants of Hastert?

[ieoeja]

40. Dean wanted to win more places.

Group A - 22 Republican incumbents targeted by DCCC
Group B - 200+ Republican incumbents targeted by DNC

Results: 9 Republicans in Group A were defeated, 30+ Republicans not in Group A were defeated

Carville's conclusion: we may have won those other 13 in Group A if we hadn't wasted money winning those 30+ not in Group A

My conclusion: 30+ is better than 13. But I'm weird that way.

The DNC wasn't even planning for a win this election. They were planning to lay the foundation for wins across the country in the future. I live in Chicago, but grew up and still frequent southern Indiana. During the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in Chicago I heard all the news that was pro-Gore/Kerry, anti-Gore/Kerry, pro-Bush and anti-Bush. During those same elections in southern Indiana I heard all the news that was anti-Gore/Kerry and pro-Bush. The selective reporting (or if you prefer, censorship) was alarming to me. But my relatives down in southern Indiana had absolutely no concept their news was so heavily censored.

THIS is what the 50 State Strategy is intended to combat. Furthermore, since the 50 State Strategy is new it included a lot of startup costs spreading out the money even more thinly AT THIS TIME. A huge percentage of the money collected by the DNC the past year has been spent on just that. Now that it is built, most of the money collected in the next two years will be spent on the 2008 election. The DNC is trying to win the war while the DCCC was concentrating all their forces on this one battle.

[Mass]

3. Because of gerry-mandering, it is even amazing that we were able

to put that many districts in play. We were able to get that many seats because Dean allowed states like Indiana or Kentucky to have an infrastructure that was able to help when the candidates got some tractions.

In addition, we WON GOVERNORSHIPS and STATEHOUSES for which this money was needed.

Carville is an idiot who thinks there is nothing outside the Beltway.

[KoKo]

30. Exactly.....OP hasn't done homework......n/t

[AlCzervik]

4. maybe we would have "Won 50 seats" if districts weren't gerrymandered.

maybe we would have only won 12 seats if Dean wasn't on the ground in 50 states.

[lapfog_1]

34. Based on pre-gerrymandered elections that were "tidal waves"

we might have won 100 seats. Ok, maybe over the top a bit. But more than 50.
And it's Dean and the activist left that won these seats. Not the DLC. I don't give a crap how many "bluedogs" got elected, they ran on a populist message, not a conservative one. Guys like Ford that ran on a conservative messages didn't win. People who stood up and said "We need to change directions in Iraq" and "There is too much corruption in the republican party"... those people won.

[bookman]

5. I don't think...

...you can ignore the potential black box voting variations. Perhaps more seats would have been won. I don't know, but I fully expected electronic voting problems. And then there's the robo calling factor, etc.

[LSparkle]

6. Have you ever heard the term "gerrymandering"???

There was NO WAY we could win 50 seats after BugMan and company carved up districts to protect their encumbents. If this were a perfectly fair world, yes we would have won that many, but even winning 27 (or whatever we end up with) is an incredible feat, considering how stacked the deck was against us.

I think Howard Dean has brought a breath of FRESH AIR to the DNC and Carville, of all people, ought to just step aside and make way for some non-Clintonistas. (Isn't there SOMETHING he should be doing for Hillary, like helping form an "exploratory committee"??)

[BluegrassDem]

18. Gerrymandering is overrated

We came within 2% points of winning another 20 seats or so. I think that's what Carville was trying to say. If the DNC had devoted more resources to those tight races that we lost, could it have made a difference? Did the DNC allocated resources in the best way to maximize the results?

I think in NH-01, there was an upset with the Democrat winning unexpectedly, w/out any DNC support. How many others races out there could we have won like that?

[madfloridian]

24. Boy, the word is out today, ain't it.

Even going after Judy Dean at Kos.

This is pathetic.

[karynnj]

37. But NH-01 was helped by the DFA and John Kerry, Wes Clark and Dodd , not the DCCC

So, this doesn't work as an example for Carville.

[Mass]

39. The DNC does not devote ressources to individual races.

It devotes money to states, and, in the case of NH, it must have done something right, because they won two House seats, have a Democratic statehouse for the first time in 100 years, and have reelected their governor with 74 % of the votes. Rahm, however, whose role it was to see that the representative candidates who had a chance got what they wanted, screwed up totally on NH-01. He did not think the race was viable.

If Dean had given more money to Rahm, there probably would not have been a blue statehouse in NH because there would not have been a statewide effort. Same thing in KY. Were do you think the infrastructure that helped the candidates came from. Yes, the DNC whose role it is to help.

[Bjorn Against]

46. Have you looked at those twenty seats we were within 2% on?

Most of them were generally NOT considered swing districts. It was the fifty state strategy that put those seats in play, they very likely would not have even had contenders in many of them if it were not for Dean's plan.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

7. Carville is a DLC asshat.

He pulled that 50-seat figure out of his nether regions; he has no way to prove the Dems could have picked up that many seats. In fact, given the recent pro-Republican gerrymandering, it seems to be a totally absurd assumption. Dean did great work, and for Carville to refer to his performance as "Rumsfeldian" is downright sour-grapey. Who screwed the pooch for the Dems in '94, Jimmy?

[Burma Jones]

8. No, Carville is a Corporate Shill

[yebrent]

10. Maybe we could of picked up a few seats here and there.

However, it would have been at the detriment of future races and more importantly, local races. The full potential of Dean's 50-state strategy will become completely obvious to everyone once the State houses we picked up do their redistricting in 2010.

[flpoljunkie]

11. I wouldn't believe anything coming from Hillary Clinton's front man, James Carville.

He has zero credibility. Could all of this trashing of Dean having anything to do with Howard Fineman reporting last night that the Democrats 2008 Convention will be in Denver, but there has yet been no actual announcement.

Fineman was wrong, says, "it's a "hunch."

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2006/11/us-news-never-mind.html#links

Who do you think would want the '08 convention in New York?

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

US News: Never mind

As I expected, US News has revised their original article, and it now says:

In the Tucson area, a seat that borders Mexico–held for 22 years by retiring Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe–was captured by a moderate Democrat, former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords. With an eye toward the West, Democrats are considering staging their next presidential convention in Denver.

That leaves just Howard Fineman out there with his hunch.

[madfloridian]

12. One sticks the knife in, others twist.

Amazing.

[Mass]

13. Is Carville looking for a job. It is the only reason I see for all these attacks on Dean.

[trogdor]

14. In a word, no.

In two, HELL NO!

[underpants]

15. Look there are two really good analysis es around here

one is by EJ Dionne
http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=21639

and the one in The New Yorker
by Hertzberg
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/content/articles/061120ta_talk_hertzberg

Both say basically the same thing (I don't think this is just cocktail party conventional wisdom either)

The candidates that the Dems won may have been to the right of what the conventional wisdom on Dems (think Murtha) but they were easily to the left of the candidates the Republicans ran.

The Dems won seats in places they had no business winning not only because they were "red states" but because the computer gerrymandering SHOULD HAVE locked those seats in for the incumbents and anyone they endorsed until the end of time.

The country wholly and completely rejected them, their Republican title, their association with anything Bush, AND their failed conservatism.

P-E-R-I-O-D

[aquart]

16. No. But thank you for your concern.

I realize how important it is to destroy the man who brought us victory. Keep trying.

[babylonsister]

17. No. Carville is an attention whore; I think Dean's strategy

was brilliant, and what's more, it worked. And why is Carville making disparaging remarks about a fellow Dem? With friends like that...:eyes:

[rock]

20. No

He doesn't

[bklyncowgirl]

21. If your horse won the Kentucky Derby by four lengths

Would you fire the jockey because you believe he could have won it by five?

A winner is a winner and Democrats have been losing for so long that we don't know how to deal with success.

[BlueCaliDem]

44. Exactly! It's as if the DLCers are pissed off we won, and are out to punish Dean

...for that.

I just don't get it---other than to try to purge the party leadership of any progressives and getting the Republican-Lite heads back into the top slots.

I'm still baffled that Carville went after Dean so quickly after the election!

[bklyncowgirl]

45. It doesn't make sense unless somebody (Hillary?) wants Dean gone.

Of course people do irrational things in both politics and horse racing.

Many years ago, after the great racehorse Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown, the trainer, Billy Turner, suggested that they give Slew a few months off. The owners who were newcomers to racing who'd bought the bargain of the century insisted on running the horse shortly after the Belmont Stakes. Predictably Seattle Slew lost to a horse that had no business being on the same track with him. The owners then turned around and fired Turner. This move almost ended in tragedy as the notoriously temperamental Slew (he had to have loud rock music blasting outside of his stall or he would kick the door down, would not allow anyone to walk in front of him and had to have his morning gallop before he would do his stud duty) became so upset at leaving his former handlers and his stable pony, came down with colic and nearly died.

There was former bad blood between Turner and the Slew Crew as the owners were called that came to a head when the horse lost, and there's been bad blood between Dean and the Clintons. Had the Democrats lost a call for Dean's head wouldn't have sounded strange. Since they won and won big calling for Dean's ouster sounds weird but seen this way it sort of makes sense.

[Lugnut]

22. No

If funky voting districts and funky voting machines hadn't been in place all those efforts would've undoubetdly been more successful. If the DLCers were in charge we'd be licking our wounds. Carville is for Carville.

[Name removed]

23. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LaPera]

25. Carvilles & Corporate DLC bullshit and power struggle. Enough corporatism already.

The DLC, Carville, Clinton's love the corporate money flowing...That's why Clinton gave us that corporate asshole Terry McAuliffe as the disastrous head of the DNC.

Dean is doing a great job and obviously stepping on toes that need to be stepped on!!

And I still don't dismiss republican electronic voting machines as stealing the seats Carville speaks of.

[justice1]

26. No, The party leaders need to fix the problems at the state level.

[Jim__]

27. Can Carville or anyone else name the 50 seats we could have won?

If he names them, we can look at whether or not he's being realistic. If he can't name them, then it's just bullshit.

[hippiechick]

29. No.

n/t

[grizmaster]

31. Carville didn't do anything that helped this year

and considering his track record of advice over the last 3 election cycles his opinion isn't worth a plug nickel.

[madfloridian]

32. 3rd "worried" post on the Deans in just two hours here and at Kos.

I would say attack, but then everyone would jump on me and say it is not an attack.

[madfloridian]

36. Ever hear of the Fox News question mark? Say anything...put ?

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/627

This shows Jon Stewart says Fox News can say anything they want by putting a question mark after it.

You Tube appears down right now...but watch later.

[madfloridian]

38. Playing now....watch it. The Fox News question mark.

.

[rocktivity]

41. What Carville DOESN'T have is a recent victory.

So maybe he should spend more time studgying what Dean did RIGHT.

P.S. You're all invited to vote in the DU poll I've set up.

[libodem]

42. Mary Matlin is the boss of James

and I don't believe he thinks for himself. We did well in the elections. HOWARD DEAN SPEAKS FOR ME! That guy talks the talk and WALKS the walk. I love him. So shaduppa you face CarVILE.

[WinTwins]

43. No. n/t

[enough already]

47. Carville's only point is on top of his head.

He's carrying Hillary's water, the rest of us be damned. Fuck him.