Why the GOP is doomed: The successes of Northern Republicans vs. Southern Democrats

[Dob Bole]

While Republicans suffered heavy losses in Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and almost everywhere else in the Northeast this year, Southern Democrats are still alive and well. Here is a wrap-up of Democratic successes in Dixie this year, as well as the failures of "Yankee Republicans:"

Governorships

- Mike Beebe reclaimed the Arkansas governorship, Mike Huckabee's open seat, for the Democrats.

- Martin O'Malley unseated incumbent governor Robert Erlich in Maryland.

These two victories give Democrats a 10-7 majority in the Southern Governor's Association. Democrat Joe Manchin, of West Virginia, will assume the chairmanship of the organization in 2007, and Tim Kaine of Virginia will be vice-chairman.

In the Coalition of Northeastern Governors, Republicans lost races in New York and Massachusetts, giving Democrats a 5-3 majority.

House Races

By a preliminary count, there will be 66 Southern Democrats in the 110th Congress, plus one nonvoting member from D.C. Specifically, Democratic gains were made in North Carolina, Kentucky, Texas, and Florida. By contrast, in the more densely populated Northeast, there will be only 22 Republican congressmen, after heavy losses. (TX-23 will be decided on December 12, and there has been foul play in Katherine Harris' old district.)

Senate

Democrats won 5 out of 8 Senate seats south of the Mason-Dixon line this year: Robert Byrd and Bill Nelson won re-election, Ben Cardin won an open seat, and Jim Webb and Claire McCaskill defeated Republican incumbents. In Tennessee, Republicans seem to be stuck at 51%...Both Bob Corker and Lamar Alexander were elected with that amount.

In the Northeast? Democrats also pick up two incumbent seats, Republicans 0.

State Legislatures

Democrats control 7 of the states in the South, compared to 6 for Republicans. Tennessee and Kentucky both have one Democratic and one Republican chamber in their legislatures...a fairly even split.

In the northeast? Democrats now control all states except for Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New York, which are split. Republicans do not control a single state's legislature.

The 2008 Presidency

So far Mitt Romney, George Pataki, and Rudy Guiliani have entered the fray for the Northeastern Republicans. Southern Democrats? Gen. Wesley Clark, while Jimmy Carter is touting Al Gore. Pick any of those candidates and match them up, and see who YOU think would win! Really!

Conclusion

What are the ramifications of this number-crunching? When the South had only one political party, it made sense for Republicans to look southward for new seats...but now they've reached an impasse. Texas, Florida, and Georgia cannot possibly be gerrymandered to any further benefit for the Republicans, yet in most states they still have minority status, and lower numbers of voter registration. Meanwhile, they are losing heavily in the Northeast. If Republicans can't find some other base somewhere else, they are doomed to minority status for a very, very long time. If I were George Bush, I'd be making deals with Russia right now to increase the size of Alaska.

;)

DB

[marmar]

1. Is Maryland still considered a Southern state?

:shrug:

[Dob Bole]

2. Yes, in the Southern Governor's Association

It's still South of the Mason-Dixon line.

Unless they moved Maryland and I missed it. :)

[marmar]

5. I guess it is south of Mason-Dixon....

but in today's parlance, I don't culturally associate Maryland or D.C. with the South. To me, the South begins when you cross the Potomac (actually, when you exit Fairfax County).

[Dob Bole]

6. African-Americans are culturally Southern to a large degree...

If Maryland and DC were as European as say, Massachusetts and New Hampshire, I definitely wouldn't count them, either. But they aren't, and Maryland's new governor will coalition with Southerners.

[marmar]

8. "African-Americans are culturally Southern to a large degree..."

The ties are there, as in family ties, (I know, I'm African American and my grandparents moved to Michigan from Arkansas) but that's where the cultural similarities end.

[Dob Bole]

10. What I'm saying is this...

White people in D.C. and Maryland may be dissimilar to white people from the Carolinas, who are very heavily influenced by African-American culture...but that isn't enough to recategorize the two areas as un-southern.

[twilight_sailing]

11. I disagree.

There are lots of cultural similarities. Saying "yall". Cornbread and greens. Church going. Etc.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

4. It is south of the Mason-Dixon.

But by most other measures, no, it's a northern state.

[WI_DEM]

3. Don't forget the possibility of John Edwards of NC running in '08 too

but you make good points. The media was always touting that the Dems can't win the south, but they don't seem to make the same case about the GOP in the NE. Dems are competitive in the south in many state races adn with the right candidate in '08 we will be in the presidential race as well.

[HappyWeasel]

7. Hmmm...

To win in the South, we have to sacrifice our principles. To win in the West, all we have to do is reframe the debate.

[Dob Bole]

9. Who sacrificed their principles this year?

I can't think of anyone (who won) that did. Harold Ford did, and he lost.

[Odin2005]

13. Nonsense.

The South looks pretty purple to me. The idea that the South is nothing but Freepers, Freepers, and more Freepers is a BS sterotype encouraged by the divisive MSM sensationalism about "Red America vs. Blue America."

[Dob Bole]

14. No reply so far...

I think it's safe to assume the poster can't back up his/her argument.

[Dob Bole]

12. the one kick (nt)