Analysis: 85 GOP House Seats Could Be At Risk In 2008

[JABBS]

Click here to read the entire story.

<snip>

In the closest elections, where winners drew 52 percent or less, Republicans won by a 26 to 19 margin. If you wonder why Democrats did not win 40 or more seats, there's the answer. Unlike in 1994, the Republicans managed to win a lot of close elections.

The Republican edge grew as the margins moved up a bit. For seats won with a 53 to 55 percent margin of victory, GOPers posted 16 wins to 15 for Democrats. But from a 56 percent to 59 percent margin of victory, the Republican edge was a stunning 43 victories to eight. If you want to find 85 Republican-held seats to challenge hard in 2008, they are clearly available within this group.

[ClassWarrior]

1. Pair that with this little tidbit...

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/11/29/the_incredible_shrinking_gop.php

...and we have much reason to be optimistic. But we still have to work hard to make it happen!

NGU.

[ginnyinWI]

2. the chimp really hurt his party, didn't he.

They thought invading Iraq would be quick, easy and give them a huge political advantage. HA!

[aquart]

3. All the Repudiated Party has to do is insist on keeping George.

That should be enough to give us every one of those seats.

[JABBS]

4. it could be a veto-proof majority, long-term

:)

[aquart]

6. I just don't want us turning into THEM.

But God knows we have one fucking mess to clean up.

[ClassWarrior]

8. As always, WE need to be vigilant and hold our Dems to a high standard.

NGU.

[JABBS]

10. true

one thing that might prevent either party from becoming "them" is to have fair redistricting. i'm guessing this will be on the dems' list of things to do at some point. the current system is designed to do one thing -- keep republican seats safe.

[Cosmocat]

11. YEP ...

and that BIG thing to come out of this last election that the MSM just won't talk about, while it parrots the "the democrats didn't get a mandate" GOP message is ... The dems, for the first time in a LONG time, now have the majority of governorships, after having a net gain of state legislative seats to pretty much break even in 2004, they had a net gain of over 300 state legislative seats and now have a marked lead in control of state chambers ...

I live in PA ... We have voted for the democratic candidate for president for about two decades now ... We have just got our democratic governor reelected by a WIDE margin ... We just shiite canned the most radical republican senator in the country, and our senior senator is a very moderate republican ...

But, SOMEHOW, our senate is securly locked in GOP hands, and the house just finally, after weeks of recounts, to a one seat edge to the dems ... Our federal congressional districts are disgrace ... Look them up, the western part of the state is just flat disgraceful ...

We need to come back in 2008 and extend the gains in the state house, chip away at the senate ... We have Rendell through 2010 ... SOMEHOW, we need to get our districting worked out properly ...

[Arkana]

5. Good. I hope Dean is well aware of this.

[JABBS]

13. I'm sure they have broken down the numbers

a dozen different ways, both for the House and Senate.

[bullimiami]

7. the dems need to fix the voting system top to bottom, registration to casting

to counting, every state, every race. federal laws for all elections.

that should be a top priority for the next 2 years. at least to get a good start on it.

[ClassWarrior]

9. Good point. DFA wants us to ask Congress to approve paper ballots...

...within their first 100 hours. Go sign the petition and pass it on to everyone you know:

http://www.democracyforamerica.com/paperballots/ga_3042032

NGU.

[JABBS]

12. there's another string on discussion:politics

regarding possible new legislation from Dianne Feinstein requiring verifiable paper ballots.

[JNelson6563]

14. A similar story in the Senate

I really think 08 will be an even greater year for us than 06. Let us hope enough of us are bright enough to NOT let the media pick our candidate for us (this time).

Julie