Recession Likely

[unlawflcombatnt]

Today's Construction Spending and Manufacturing reports provided still further evidence of a sinking economy. The 2 graphs at below from Briefing.com tell the whole story of the trend in Construction.





More details on Construction Spending can be found at:
Briefing.com.

Construction Spending declined 1%, leaving an annualized, seasonally-adjusted rate of $1.16 trillion. This was the largest decline since the recession in 2001. Residential Construction fell 1.9% in the last month. Residential Construction spending has also fallen for 7 consecutive months.

Since March, 100,000 housing-related jobs have been lost. Economist Zoltan Pozsar from Moody's Economy.com, (in today's Yahoo News) estimates that 300,000 more housing-related jobs will be lost in the next year.

Manufacturing also declined in today's report. This is the first contraction in the Manufacturing sector in almost 4 years. Manufacturing employment also declined in November, with the ISM Manufacturing employment index declining to 49.2 in November from 50.8 in October. (Readings under 50 indicate a contraction.)

The dollar has dropped 3% in relation to the Euro in the last week, and 1.4% since Thursday morning (11/30/06).

The stock market has declined for the 2nd straight week.

All of this follows November 28th's Durable Goods report, which declined much more than predicted. The predicted Durable Goods orders decline was only -6.0%. The actual change was a -8.3%. Though much of this was simply an offset from last months 8.7% increase, October's total is still 0.3% less than August's total, and 0.38% less than July's. The August through October numbers can be seen in the chart below from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Durable Orders totals are underlined in red, as are the "Excluding Transportation" totals.



More important than 2-month overall decline, Durable Goods orders have DECLINED compared to October 2005, for a same-month change of -1.8%. This can be seen from the composite chart below, made from the superimposition of monthly Durable Orders reports from the previous months, with information on the furthest month back coming from the January 2006 report by the Census Bureau. (October 2005's total was not available, so it was extrapolated by from the percentage increase given between October - November 2005 change, shown in the far right column.) Once again, the Total and Ex-Transportation numbers are underlined in red.



From that chart it appears Durable Orders peaked In December 2005, and have been generally declining since that time. Compared to December 2005's peak of $230.754 billion, October of 2006 is down 9% to $209.974 billion.

Meanwhile, the Corporatists and the NeoCon-Artists continue to claim the economy is "the strongest ever" and claim the statistics support them. Of course, they never give those "supporting" statistics. There's a reason for that. There aren't any. The economy is sinking and a recession is VERY likely within the next year. All the Right-Wing propaganda in the world isn't going to prevent this.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[shaniqua6392]

1. But George said the economy is growing stronger every day!!!

He wouldn't lie to us would he???

[unlawflcombatnt]

3. Surely Not.

No, of course not. After all, he always tells us he's honest. At least his supporters tell us that. Maybe all the statistics are wrong. Maybe it's all just another "left-wing" media plot to discredit him. Yeah, that must be it.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[against all enemies]

53. I guess the question is, "Which is going better?" The war or the economy.

According to Bush it's a horse race to the top.

[unlawflcombatnt]

54. The War or the Economy?

That's a tough call. But it's a race to the bottom. It's more like a race to see which "rock" is going to sink to the bottom of the pond first.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[davidwparker]

2. me: mortgage, food, utilities only. it's a protest of the direction of the

country is going. back to populism, made in america, and unions. i swear there are lot of people in this country who need to go the way of the guillotine. "let them each cake" indeed.

[Warpy]

4. I've done that for five years and 18 days

Unfortunately, a lot of my stuff is starting to wear out. I've been replacing it at charity thrift shops as much as I can (always donating more than I take away), but even that is getting difficult as more people NEED thrift shops. I've got a fabric stash and some patterns, better get busy.

As this country slides into recession, I'll probably have to bite the bullet and get some new stuff.

[davidwparker]

11. you go!

[unlawflcombatnt]

19. Consumer Power & Joel Hirschhorn

Have you ever read anything by populist writer & author Joel Hirschhorn? He advocates retaking control of our country by using the power of the American consumer. He maintains that if an a large enough group of consumers banded together and agreed to reduce spending, it would bring greatly reduce Corporate and big money control of our government, as well as our lives.

Joel Hirschhorn-Oped News

Joel Hirschhorn-American Chronicle

Foreclosure USA

___________________________________________
___________________________________________

[unlawflcombatnt]

6. I'm with you

"back to populism, made in america, and unions"

I'm with you on that.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[we can do it]

90. I've Been Doing That, Too - Screw the Greedy Bastards

I am sick to death of hearing how raising the minimum wage is bad for business, when those at the top are making obscene saleries. Also, this health insurance thing has got to be controlled, each year they double the premium, raise the co-pay, delete services....

[unlawflcombatnt]

94. Increased Minimum Wage Helps EVERYONE

It puts more money in the pockets of the poorest consumers, who are most likely to spend the highest percentage of their income. The resultant increase in spending increases demand for goods & services, demand for workers to provide those goods & services, and the wages of those workers, as well as the number employed.

The increased wage-financed spending that results from a minimum wage increase is good for the economy.

Economist Ravi Batra, in his book Greenspan's Fraud, has documented how an increase in the minimum wage has always resulted in an increase in GDP, thus increasing the aggregate wealth and income of the country.

Increasing the minimum wage reduces the profits of those at the top ever so slightly, while increasing the wealth & wellbeing of everyone else, as well as increasing the aggregate total wealth of the country.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[we can do it]

96. Agreed & Anyone Who Is Working A Minimum Wage Job Is Doing It Based On Need

[thinkingwoman]

5. Everyone making less than 50,000/yr

has been in a recession since 2001.

This economy has been propped up and falsified by the wealthy and the upper middle class throughout the dicktater's reign. It's all been a lie.

Those of us who are lower middle class or working poor or underclass have never recovered from what 9/11 did to the economy.

[unlawflcombatnt]

7. Yes

I think the lower 90% have been in a recession as well. Average, inflation-adjusted real wages are less than they were 3 years ago. Without the increased wages of the top 10%, average wages would be lower than they were when Bush stole office the 1st time.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[thinkingwoman]

14. I think your percentages

and your point about average wages are spot on.

:thumbsup:

[unlawflcombatnt]

15. Thanks

Thanks. And the increase in wages for the top earners does much less for the economy, unless there is a shortage of investment capital. Clearly there is not any such shortage at present. News reports continue to state that markets are "glutted with capital."

Since the top earners spend a much smaller fraction of their income, it does practically nothing for the economy at present. By shifting wealth upward, a smaller amount of it is spent on consumer goods, creating a smaller demand for production, and a smaller demand for workers. The smaller demand for workers reduce both employment and wages as well, since a reduced demand for anything, including workers, reduces the "price" of that item. In this case, that item is workers and the price is the wages paid to them.

[AZBlue]

91. You hit it spot on, thinkingwoman!!

I keep thinking each year will get better, but it doesn't.

[LiberalEsto]

8. I've scarcely worked in 3 1/2 months

although they finally got some work for me to do next week.

We've been in a recession for a while. I think we're heading for a depression.

[unlawflcombatnt]

17. Depression

You might be right. We've certainly been in both a housing recession and durable goods recession for quite a while now. As home equity extraction dries up as a source of consumer spending, things are only going to get worse.

Maybe the new Democratic majority in both houses of Congress will help. However, their efforts to "change the course" will be limited by Bush and his Corporatist appointees.

[raccoon]

69. The corporate media will never, ever use the "D" word, no matter

how bad things get. You can take that to the bank.

[unlawflcombatnt]

18. Duplicate N/T

[unlawflcombatnt]

9. Consumer Spending Flat over last 2 months

The net 2-month change increase in Consumer Spending since August has been less than 1/10th of 1% (0.08%). Below is a graph from Briefing.com showing the monthly changes.

[unlawflcombatnt]

10. 3rd Quarter GDP report

Wednesday's 3rd quarter GDP report was revised upward from the previous estimate, the +'s were due almost exclusively to an decrease in imports and an increase in inventory accumulation. Also, of the $129 billion current dollar increase in the 3rd quarter, $66 billion was due to increased Corporate profits.

Meanwhile, the housing bubble continues to deflate, with only 77,000 New Homes being sold in October, the lowest in over a year. This marks a 27% decline compared to October 2005's 105,000 New Homes sold. Worse still New Home Completions for October were more than double the number sold at 166,000.

And we also need to remember the spurious and artifactual increase in 3rd quarter auto sales of 26%, which still has not been corrected for in the GDP report. Again, this contributed +0.7% to the total GDP.

It'll be interesting to see from tomorrow's Personal Income report how much spending was financed by borrowing, instead of income. Though the income growth of the top earners largely cancels out the debt-financing of the lower income earners, it still gives a general comparison.

The "Savings Rate," which is simply a calculation of the difference in total disposable personal income, was revised to a more negative number than has previously been stated. Meaning that even more consumer spending was financed by borrowing, instead of income.

[Nite Owl]

12. And then there's that

inverted yeild curve that usually indicates a recession ahead. Every once in a while they talk about that on Bloomberg news but the answer usually is it's different this time. Last time they were saying that was during the bubble at the end of the 90's, it was all about the 'new economy' and the valuations were ok, really. We know how that worked out.

[unlawflcombatnt]

13. It's "different" this time

It's amazing how the Right-Wing Corporatists treat negative indicators. If it's "positive," they highly publicize it and discuss it ad nauseum. But if it's "negative," they always concoct some reason why it's "different" this time, and that the involved negative indicator is giving a "false" reading.

At present we have nothing but a faith-based, "hot air" economy. It's sinking and NeoCon-Artists cannot keep it afloat on hot air alone, no matter how hard they try.

[sendero]

75. Kind of like the inflation numbers..

... if they are bad, they exclude the "volatile food and energy sectors". If they need the food and energy sectors to make the overall number look good, there is no mention of the "volatile food and energy" part of the equation.

Our entire media has become nothing but cheap propagandists. My examples (food/energy included, not included) comes from NPR. Anyone thinking they are any better than Fox better think again :(

[TheFarseer]

81. They can keep it afloat

with massive borrowing and selling off our infrastructure, but not forever. I've said it a million times - we are doing remarkably poorly for being $400 billion over budget.

[PsycheCC]

16. K&R. Thanks for putting it all together. Great charts! n/t

[unlawflcombatnt]

20. Paul Krugman's 12-1-06 Assessment

Paul Krugman provides another excellent assessment of the economy in his December 1st article, Economic Storm Signals, from the New York Times.

Krugman states that economists' assessments of the current U.S. economy are widely variable. This is a typical occurrence when an economy is at a turning point (i.e., when an expansion is about to turn into a recession.) He states: "the last time things were this confused was early in 2001, when most economists failed to realize that the United States was sliding into recession."

Krugman puts the odds of an economic slowdown at 2:1.

[OzarkDem]

22. And the reason its so confusing

is because Bush has changed the weighting, etc. of all the measures used for economic indicators. He's cooked the books, so to speak. So it makes it difficult to get an accurate reading of our economic situation.

I hope someone can figure this out before we end up in deep trouble.

[unlawflcombatnt]

23. Exactly

The calculation of many economic indicators has been changed. The interest rate spread contribution to the Leading Indicators index is the 1st one that comes to my mind. Another one is the reduction of the Consumer Price Index by claiming the "real" prices of computers for consumers is actually less than what they are paying, despite the fact actual prices have increased. The replacement of the increase in home mortgage payments by the phantom "owners equivalent rent" concoction is another.

If the numbers don't support their fantasy economy, they just throw in some "fantasy" calculations.

[Eurobabe]

43. Thanks for that, I love PK, he's the best.

[OzarkDem]

21. Well it took them 6 years

but they finally succeeded in destroying Clinton's economy.

[unlawflcombatnt]

24. A real achievement

Not only did they destroy Clinton's economy, they managed to increase the national debt
another $3 trillion while doing so. And it looks like Bush will be in office for not 1, but 2 recessions. Another real "achievement."

[mrgorth]

87. Clinton did jack shit

for manufacturing in this country. He was half the problem.

[unlawflcombatnt]

25. Deleted Post N/T

[seabeyond]

26. so where and when would you look to invest

or is it hold on to everything and ride it out.

[BrokenBeyondRepair]

27. gold

[unlawflcombatnt]

29. Yes, Indeed

Gold has increased over 130% since Bush stole his first election, and has gone up over 40% in the last year and half. Definitely much better than the stock market.

[unlawflcombatnt]

30. Gold Prices

Below are some charts from Kitco.com showing the actual increases in gold price. The 1-year increase in price has been 28%, the 2-year increase about 43%, and the 5-year increase 136%. Since Bush 1st took office, the low price of $260/ounce has increased to $645/ounce, or about 148%.

[BrokenBeyondRepair]

31. and it's just the beginning..

our economy is more fragile than most will admit

[unlawflcombatnt]

33. Fragile

You're certainly right on that.

Somewhere I have a graph showing the difference between our so-called GDP "growth," and one that shows this "growth" minus the effect of spending financed through borrowing. From the latter, there is practically no growth since Bush stole office the 1st time.

Below is a chart showing the current housing recession (from the Christian Science Monitor).



Note the 3.5% price decline on the sale of 6.2 million previously owned homes, vs. the 1.9% increase in price on 1 million new homes. Combining the 2, the overall price decline is -2.73%.

[pushycat]

32. Look who is into gold:

http://www.atsnn.com/article/233736

Gee, I guess they just got lucky to be in the gold business.

[unlawflcombatnt]

35. Gold & Multinational Corporations

Thanks for the link. It's very interesting. It's nice to know that Bush I and his globalist friends are using the profits from their sales to American consumers to invest in, and wreck the economies of other countries.

Fortunately for gold owners, the amount of gold anticipated from mining is less than 5 tonnes/year. (Annual world mining production is around 2,500 tonnes/year.) So this minuscule supply increase will do little to suppress prices.

Unfortunately, this minuscule supply increase is causing a huge loss to the local residents and a huge amount of environmental damage.

This is another perfect example of the harm done by globalism and multinational corporations, who owe no allegiance to any sovereign government, or the people that government represents.

[Zynx]

66. Gold is a crap place to be in a recession.

Gold rises with two things: Other prices and money supply. Both of those take it in the butt during a recession. In 1999-2001 gold prices were down as the Fed raised rates and a slowdown looked likely and eventually came to fruition.

Bonds are a far better place to be, preferably overseas bonds like German or British bonds as the dollar will weaken.

[unlawflcombatnt]

72. Gold

Gold rises with two things: Other prices and money supply. Both of those take it in the butt during a recession. In 1999-2001 gold prices were down as the Fed raised rates and a slowdown looked likely and eventually came to fruition.

I agree that gold prices go up with an increase in the money supply, and that they were low in 1999-2001. But they weren't much lower in 1999 than they were in the 2 years from 1997 to 1999. Gold prices when there are better investment opportunities. If returns on investments go down, other avenues of investment become better opportunities. If consumer spending declines, returns on capital investment ultimately declines. Thus, if little in the way of productive investment opportunities exist, gold price rise, just like bond prices. More investment money goes into bonds and gold, and less goes into stocks or any forms of true capital investment. Though a money supply contraction should drive gold prices downward, it's almost inconceivable that Bernanke would let a money supply contraction occur. At least, not without a fight. Even still, once the money supply starts increasing again, it will push gold prices higher again.

If the Fed truly did concentrate on fighting inflation alone, and used real inflation measures, instead of artificially low Consumer Price Index, then gold price increases would be limited. But the chances of the Fed fighting inflation alone, and using a real measure of inflation as a guide, are zero.

As the economy sinks, the Fed will drop interest rates and increase the money supply. And if this fails to halt the downward trend, even more money will go into gold instead of the stock market or capital investment.

Gold will remain a good investment. The only question is how good. Bonds may also remain a good investment. But bond investment requires a large amount of trust in the U.S. Government. And that's something I don't have at the present time.

Below is a graphic representation of gold prices, suggesting gold price suppression from 1996 to 2003. Note, however, that gold prices changed little from December 1997 through December 2001. It appears that the 2001 recession had little price-suppressing effect on gold. However, the drop in interest rates, the expansion of the money supply, and all other measures to fight the recession has a price-increasing effect on gold.



unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[sendero]

76. Or silver...

... just as good, maybe better :)

[unlawflcombatnt]

28. WTO withdrawal Poll

This might be a little off the subject, but I placed a poll in the General Politics: Discussion category asking the question "Should the U.S. withdraw from the World Trade Organization?" The poll can be found at the following link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2999615

[PsycheCC]

34. Krugman agrees that a recession is coming.

More and more of the guests on CNBC are forecasting a recession next year. Six months ago they laughed when anyone suggested the possibility.

[unlawflcombatnt]

36. Economists

Yes, Nouriel Roubini has been predicting one for the last year, and has been proven right on his most recent predictions. Economist Gary Shilling is also predicting one, and has said so on Kudlow and company. Krugman's putting the odds of a slowdown at 2:1 in 2007.

Even the normally manic Larry Kudlow is less maniacal on the economy than he has been in the past.

[area51]

37. kick. (n/t)

[fuzzyball]

38. Another excellent post UC....However you neglected to state that

The GDP is still higher than it ever has,
More people are employed than ever were,
House sales are flat but still at a very high level
compared to historical levels,
Corporate profits higher than ever,
Home ownership is at record levels, and
Retail sales are still near record levels although flat.

The negatives are DEBT....both government and personal.
The Federal Reserve created the housing bubble by dropping
interest rates to 1%. People borrowed in huge numbers to
buy homes which became more affordable due to lower
mortgage rates. The inflating house values over and above
inflation rates caused more borrowing with reverse mortgages.

If the economy slides into a recession, blame the debt.
There comes a point when debt payments overwhelm any budget.

[unlawflcombatnt]

39. Debt

I agree with you about the debt. And much of the so-called economic "growth" under Bush has been financed with borrowed money, not earned money. Home equity extraction has been the big "financier" of consumer spending since Bush stole his first election.

The "Debt" bubble is a topic unto itself.

[ProudDad]

52. Yeah, but

"The GDP is still higher than it ever has,"
GDP is a louse metric. It doesn't count major drags on the
economy, just the rich getting richer...

"More people are employed than ever were,"
Duh! Just means that there are more people working for less than
a living wage...

"House sales are flat but still at a very high level"
compared to historical levels,
Duh! (again) more people, more houses...

"Corporate profits higher than ever,"
This is a BAD THING -- costs (wages) lower = more profit

"Home ownership is at record levels, and"
And a huge number of these poor suckers are soon going
to be victims of foreclosure...

"Retail sales are still near record levels although flat."
Duh! (again, again) -- more people doing worse than in the past.


These statistics are bogus -- they don't count the damage to our environment nor the emotional and psycological damage done by this phony economy (I think it was once called "Voodoo Economics" by some politician once.)

[IDemo]

40. On gold investments, anyone familiar with these options?

Perth Mint Certificate: allows an investor to buy gold which is held by the Perth, Australia mint and insured by Lloyd's of London.

Gold ETF's (exchange-traded funds): Each share represents 1/10 oz. of gold. GLD and IAU are found on the NYSE and AMEX.

One can also invest directly in a mining company or in gold (or silver) commodities.

Each of these options is apparently meant to convey the benefits of precious metals ownership without the risks involved with the transport and ownership of physical coins or bars. The 'gold bugs' apparently feel that possession is the only way to go, but I tend to believe our government would not hesitate to outlaw gold possession in a true financial crisis, as they did in 1933.

[unlawflcombatnt]

44. Gold

IDemo,

You've brought up a very interesting topic, and one I know at least something about.

I'm somewhat of a "gold bug" myself.

The problem with owning Gold ETFs, or any other version of "paper" gold is that you don't really own any solid gold. Instead, you own a paper claim to gold. In many cases, the seller of the paper gold doesn't even have the gold that you think you've already purchased. When you actually request delivery of the gold, the holder of your paper gold must still go out and actually purchase the gold (that you thought the seller already had).

When you actually request delivery of your gold, you are charged a "conversion" fee, which is usually around 4-6% of the value of the gold. Though the seller claims this fee is to convert your "solid" gold into gold coins, it's actually to convert your "paper" gold into "actual" gold coins. In other words, the holder of your gold has to go out and actually purchase the gold (The gold you thought he already possessed.)

It may take weeks to actually receive your gold. And your seller is usually incorporated. Which means he can declare bankruptcy if necessary and never deliver the gold you purchased. This is not a "theoretical" consideration. I've already had it happen to me.

If you want to purchase gold, you need to actually take possession of it. If you purchase an ETF, you've purchased nothing but a paper claim to gold. And that claim could become worthless in an economic downturn, as the seller may not be able to make good on that claim.

[kineneb]

41. interesting home equity borrowing stats

"The amount of money withdrawn from home-equity borrowing in the US contracted from an annualized pace of US$732 billion, at the end of the third quarter of 2005, to $327 billion, at the end of the second quarter of 2006. Now look at that number again. That is a contraction of $400 billion in home-equity loans in three quarters. Equally alarming is the amount of home-equity borrowing that has taken place since 2000, when compared with the previous 45 years."

From:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HL08Dj01.html

Borrowing is all that has propped up the consumer economy... it is going aaaaaaaaaaaway... and the currency markets are looking dicey for the dollar. Things are gonna' get ugly 'round here.

[unlawflcombatnt]

42. Great Link

Thanks for the great link. A contraction of home equity withdrawal of $400 billion is definitely going to put a dent in consumer spending. And this contraction will only get worse, as home values decline.

[unlawflcombatnt]

45. Whole Sale Inventories 12-11-06

Wholesale inventories rose again for the month of October. The +0.8% increase follows the +0.7% increase in September. Wholesale inventories have increased 10% over the year, while sales have only increased 6%. An increase in inventories in excess of sales means declining sales of inventory, declining demand for wholesale products, and a declining demand for workers to provide wholesale products. It is indicative of an economy that is slowing down. Below is a copy of today's Wholesale Inventory report from Briefing.com. The top chart is the "actual" numbers, while the bottom chart shows the "predicted" and previously posted numbers from 12/10/06.



Note that growth of wholesale inventories was larger than predicted. Also note that September's "Sales" number was revised downward from a -1.2% to a -1.5%.

[unlawflcombatnt]

46. Recession Prediction: Dean Baker

Below is copy of an analysis and prediction of the upcoming recession in 2007. It comes from an article by economist Dean Baker from CEPR. Note that Baker predicts a year-over-year GDP growth of -0.7%, a job loss of 1.2 million, and an unemployment rate of 6.3% by 4th quarter of 2007.



unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[Tellurian]

47. Uh, now I know why BushI was crying..

Fear of losing his chance of mining his GOLD..

G.H.W. Bush Gold Mine To Destroy Local Ecology

November, 12 @ 15:06 GMT


In the Pascua-Lama region of Chile, which is part of the Andes mountain chain, the Barrick Mining company is poised to destroy three glaciers and a large farming community in it's rampant rush to mine Gold and Silver. The Barrick Mining company is noted because George H.W. Bush is a member of their board of advisors who's sole purpose is to use his U.S. Government connections to secure premium mining contracts. The results of the mining operation are forecast to produce millions of ounces in Gold and Silver at the cost of permanently destroying three glaciers, the water supply for 70,000 farms and devastating the local community.

original news source:

ipsnews.net

The Pascua-Lama deposit holds proven reserves of 17 million ounces of gold and 635 million ounces of silver. The transnational plans to invest 1.5 billion dollars over 20 years to exploit it, with annual output in the first five years of 750,000 ounces of gold and 30 million ounces of silver.

In addition is the contamination from mining operations of the waters that irrigate Huasco valley. ''Gold mining dumps 79 tonnes of waste for every 28 grams of gold, and produces 96 percent of the world's arsenic emissions,'' according to economist Marcel Claude, vice-president of the international environmental group Oceana.


According to the book ''The Best Democracy Money Can Buy'', by U.S. journalist Greg Palast, president George H.W. Bush (1989-1993), the current president's father, exerted pressure in Indonesia and Zaire (now known as the Democratic Republic of the Congo) for the benefit of Barrick Gold mining and petroleum deals.



Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


At a time when Glaciers are already in decline due to Global Warming, the intentional destruction of three glaciers and the fresh water supply they feed is soulless at best. To mine the area for precious silver and gold in such a destructive way points directly at the souls of the people in charge of such projects, obviously they care nothing for 'ordinary' people or the planetary ecology, they just want more, more, more until the day they die. The statements by Barrick Gold are self-serving to say the least, as it has been seen time and again that promises by corporations are soon ignored in pursuit of the almighty dollar.

Related News Links:

www.corpwatch.org
www.counterpunch.org
www.snopes.com
www.barrick.com

[unlawflcombatnt]

50. Bushism at its finest

For the betterment of the few, to the detriment of the many.

70,000 farms lost so Bush and his fellow Corporatocrats can enrich themselves even further.

[LiberalEsto]

63. Also cyanide

Gold extraction requires lots of cyanide

[UrbScotty]

48. You mean we're not ALREADY in a recession? (nt)

[unlawflcombatnt]

49. Recession

I think we're pretty close now, but the powers that be aren't willing to acknowledge it yet.

Economist Nouriel Roubini calls for a 0% GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2006. (And a recession by 1st quarter 2007) Any less than his 4th quarter prediction, however, means we're already in a recession.

[talk hard]

79. I though we were already there.

damn close if not

[unlawflcombatnt]

51. GDP revisions -- 12/21/06

I thought I'd add this post on GDP revisions for completeness.

I apologize in advance for a post that's almost incomprehensible (at least without posting the actual charts here). I'll try to add them later, or simply repost this with the copied charts included. It took me quite awhile to sort through the Bea's revisions, and see what they'd actually changed. Suffice to say, the published "revisions" are far more ominous than it initially appears. The most important "revision" from the initially published GDP report on 10/27/06 (the "advanced" report) is the huge decline in Personal Outlay spending financed by wages, and the huge increase in the amount financed with borrowed money.


Today's GDP release showed some slight downward revision to the real GDP from the "preliminary" results released in November. The previous 3rd quarter increase of 2.2% was revised down to 2.0%. Final sales of GDP was revised downward from 2.1% to 1.9%.

More notable, however, are the revisions from the initial ("advanced") report on the GDP from October 27, 2006. Though the current dollar GDP was revised upward by $14.3 billion ( from $13.3083 trillion to $13.3226 trillion ), Personal Outlays were revised slightly, downward by $5 billion from $9.715 trillion to $9.710 trillion. Thus despite the increase in the revision, consumer spending was slightly less than originally reported.

Most remarkable, however, was that Disposable Personal Income was revised downward by $70 billion, from the originally published $9.6685 trillion to $9.5983 trillion. Combined with the $5 billion reduction in Personal Outlays, this means that $65 billion more of our 3rd quarter GDP growth came from "dis-savings" (borrowed money) than was originally published. Thus, the current upward revision was more than compensated for by the increase in Personal Outlays that were financed through borrowing. In fact, if we subtracted only the money from upward revision of Personal Outlays financed by borrowing, the GDP revision would be revised downward to only $13.2576 trillion, or $50 billion less than the initially stated GDP increase for the 3rd quarter. (from the "advanced" report)

(The GDP information can be found at the links below. The gross totals for the GDP can be found in Tables 3. The "Personal Income and Its Disposition" can be found in Tables 10 at the links below. I'll try to insert actual copies of the involved tables later on.)

GDP-BEA-10/27/06
GDP-BEA-12/21/06

Clearly our GDP "growth" is being financed progressively more with borrowed money, and progressively less with wages. This is obvious from the big picture alone. The initial 3rd quarter GDP growth of 1.6% was revised upward to 2.0%, while Disposable Personal Income was revised downward by 0.8%. To put this differently, GDP was revised upward, consumer spending was revised little, and Disposable Personal Income revised downward a lot. If spending is essentially unchanged, and income declines a lot, the difference is made up for by spending financed with borrowed money.

The major point here is that our economic "growth" is being driven by consumer spending increases financed with borrowed money, not by increased wages.

Can this really be considered a "Goldilocks economy"? Is this evidence of an economy that is "strong, and getting stronger"?

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[lumberjack_jeff]

55. A kick and a wish...

... that I'd seen this post earlier.

Excellent work as usual, Unlawflcombatnt.

[nadinbrzezinski]

56. oh oh, batten down them hatches

[unlawflcombatnt]

57. Inflation Measures & Wages

A poster at another forum made an interesting point about the price of silver vs. the price of a gallon of gas. He noted that back when gasoline was only 25-cents a gallon, an ounce of silver would buy a certain amount of gasoline. (Actually, around 5 gallons of gasoline at that time.) Today, an ounce of silver will buy the same amount of gasoline, about 5 gallons worth.


So I thought it would be interesting to do a measure of inflation using the precious metals gold, silver, and platinum, and then compare them with the price of gasoline, the Consumer Price Index, and hourly wages.

I don't remember when gas was 25-cents a gallon, but I do remember when it was 30-cents a gallon. And gold was fixed at $35/ounce. Which means 1 oz. of gold would buy 116 gallons of gas. At today's gold prices gold prices, 1 oz. would buy about 258 gallons of gas. Just measuring the price in gold, it would suggest today's gas prices (in the U.S.) might be artificially low. Which, of course, is exactly what the Japanese and Europeans say about the price Americans pay for gas. In contrast, using silver indicates prices are just about right compared to gas prices in the mid-60's

There's no question there's been marked inflation. And the man in the street knows full well that it's much higher than what the government is claiming. But through a lot of devious and well orchestrated inflation-measuring concoctions, such as by use of "hedonics" and "owners' equivalent rent," they've been able to invent an inflation number that is much lower than real inflation actually is.

There are some interesting comparisons between the average hourly wage changes from 1965 to the present. Average hourly wages (current dollar) have increased 6.6-fold since January of 1965 (from $2.58/hour to $16.94/hour). Meanwhile, since 1965, previous silver prices have increased 10-fold, from $1.293/oz. to $12.53/oz.,(See older prices from chart below.)

/

Previous gold prices have increased 18-fold, from $35/oz. to $620/oz(See older prices in chart below.)

/

Previous platinum prices have increased 11-fold, from $98/oz. to $1119/oz, (See older prices in chart below.)

/

Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index has only increased 6.5%.

(For reference, current gold prices are $619/oz., current silver prices are $12.53/oz., and current platinum prices are $1119/oz.)

Interesting that the government-concocted Consumer Price Index has increased much less than the prices of gold, silver, and platinum. It's also interesting that even using the current Consumer Price Index, that average wages (when adjusted for inflation) are no higher than they were in 1965, and considerably lower than they were in 1973.

American workers are no better off now than they were in 1965, based just on "average" wages. However, even the "average" is deceptive, because wages have increased far more in the highest income brackets. Which means the average "real" wages of the lower 80% of workers is less than it was in 1965.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[nadinbrzezinski]

58. Just drove by a mall today

I happen to live near one...

1.- Usually during this time of the year that is sheer insanity. What would usually take you ten minutes, goes to half an hour to forty five minutes... not today.

2.- I have only been delayed this joyful (not if you are a retailer) holiday season ONCE since "black Friday."

Folks from this and other reports I will only hazard the guess that this has been all but a joyful season... can all of you say Recesion? I think it is finally going to be official by the first quarter of next year. There is a limit on how much you can spin this and dance around it

By the way, happy holidays

DATE STAMP DECEMBER 23RD 2006

[unlawflcombatnt]

59. Link to Excellent essay on Great Depression

A poster at another board posted some links to essays on the Great Depression. In my opinion, the best one was The Many Causes of the Great Depression. The author sites increased inequality of wealth and the "wage-productivity gap" as being contributors. He sites the large increases in productivity during the 1920's was not matched by increases in wages. In fact, while productivity increased 32% during that time, average wages increased only 8%.

A similar situation exists today. And it is worsening. Below is a graph from Peter Morici's article on currency manipulation, that shows a comparison of real hourly wages vs. output per hour. Notice the how the gap between the 2 was at its narrowest in 1998, and then has worsened ever since.



Though productivity continued to increase through 2004, real hourly wage growth increased much slower. In 2003, productivity growth increased over 4%, while wage growth increased less than 1/2%. In 2004, productivity growth increased 3%, while real wages actually declined 1/2%.

Again, these changes are parallels of those occuring during the 1920's prior the Great Depression.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[sofa king]

60. Seriously, did we ever get out of the last one?

I'm talking about those of us at the lower end of the economic spectrum. Did conditions improve for us at all during the Bush Administration? Did Bush ever make good the net loss of jobs in his first four years? Do we have any savings left? Are we paying less taxes, including gasoline taxes? I know I'm a lot worse off than I was six years ago, but maybe I'm just a loser.

What's the real deal, econo-savvy friends?

[Manifestor_of_Light]

68. Hell, I fell out of the middle class during the Clinton Administration

And couldn't find another decent job at all.

[ranadec]

61. Insiders?

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html

"It's just too bad that for everyone who is bullish and wanting to buy a stock or a market index fund, there has to be someone else who is bearish on that particular stock or the market, who is willing to sell. Otherwise there couldn't be a market, since there would not be someone to take the other side of trades.

The downside of the current situation is that while public investors seem to be very bullish and buying, another group seems to be selling just as enthusiastically.

According to data from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), since November corporate executives and insiders have been selling their holdings at the fastest pace since early 1987. That selling was fortuitous for them since the market topped out in August, 1987 in the decline that culminated with the infamous 1987 crash.

Corporate insiders have been pretty good market timers this year also. They sold at a higher than normal pace from January through April, just before the May-July market decline. Their selling then dried up in July, which turned out to be the market's low for the year. But their selling has now spiked up, and to a very dramatic degree.

So perhaps investors enthusiastically confident as the year draws to a close, should ponder the heavy selling into the market strength that is underway by corporate executives and insiders, recalling how investors were also extremely confident when corporate insiders were selling heavily into the market strength not only in 1987, but in 1999.

But let's not worry about it right now. Let's enjoy the holidays."

[LiberalEsto]

62. I can see it coming

During the first 7 months of this year, I earned over 90% of my total income in 2006. I made less than 10% of this year's earnings between August and now.

I'm a part time marketing writer, primarily for natural gas utilities and manufacturers of natural gas equipment such as absorption chillers, desiccant dehumidification devices and cogeneration systems. This equipment is sold mainly to universities, schools, hospitals, supermarkets, ice arenas, and owners of large office buildings, government buildings and military buildings.

If this equipment isn't selling, and my company's clients don't have the funds to pay for marketing materials, it's a clear sign that the economy is faltering.

[unlawflcombatnt]

64. New Home Sales-- Statistical Manipulation at its Finest

Today's New Home Sales report is another tribute to government statistical manipulation. Don't be fooled by today's alleged "increase" in New Home Sales. And don't let the alleged upward revisions in the previous 2 months fool you either. July's original New Home Sales number was 1.072 million, which has since been downwardly revised to only 0.979 million. And August's original New Home Sales number was 1.050 million, which has since been revised downward to 1.021 million per year. So today's New Home Sale number of 1.047 million is still less than the initially stated August number, and considerably less than the originally stated July number of 1.072.

This is simply another classic case of the government downwardly revising previous numbers to make current numbers look like an improvement.

Below is a modified copy of the originally published numbers for New Home Sales from Briefing.com. The most recent numbers are on the top. The most distant ones are on the bottom. The date the numbers were publicized is over each chart in red letters.



To sum up today's report, the 1.047 million New Home Sales reported are still less than the originally reported August sales of 1.050 million, and considerably less than July's originally reported sales of 1.072 million per year.

Today's numbers, however, denote a still larger decline since the originally posted sales rate of 1.404 million for October of 2005. Today's New Home Sales rate of 1.047 million is a
change of -357,000 annually, or a decline of 25% since the originally reported number for October of 2005.

New Home Sales are definitely on the decline. The slight uptick for November is a product of downward revisions of previously posted numbers. Again, today's annualized New Home Sale rate is 25% less than the October 2005's originally posted number.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[kineneb]

65. inventory numbers are also interesting

looking at the charts:
Aug 05- 4.5 months
Aug 06- 6.8 months

lots more houses on market for longer period of time... sales are slooow...

[unlawflcombatnt]

67. Inventories Rising

Inventories certainly are rising. And when looking at Census Bureau numbers on monthly New Home Completions vs. New Home Sales, the difference is even more striking.

According to the Census Bureau, 159,800 New Homes were completed in November, while only 116,000 were sold. Thus the inventory of homes increased 43,000 for November. This certainly would support declines in new home prices in the future.

[jcrew2001]

70. unemployment

Unemployment is at its lowest - hahaha, thats because unemployment has run out for so many people, that they are now off the books!

[unlawflcombatnt]

71. Unemployment

The low numbers are also a result of government statistical manipulation. The total number of truly unemployed workers can be reduced by removing them from the "unemployed" category and putting them in the "not-in-labor-force" category. The Bush administration has reclassified 4.3 million truly unemployed workers as "not-in-labor-force," thus reducing the "official" unemployment rate by almost 3%.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[techtrainer]

73. Are you hoping for a recession?

Sure sounds like it, quoting from Marx adds to the suspicion that you would like to see the economy fail.

edit: Meant this as a reply to the orginal post.

[sendero]

77. Tell you what..

... you wish in one hand (that the economy isn't tanking and hasn't been for 5 full years) and poop in the other.

Let us know which one fills up first.

The FACT is that W Shrub Bush inherited an economy that was in distress as a hangover of the over-exuberance of the 90s. but instead of doing things that would fix it, he did things that made it much, much worse.

So, we are going to have at LEAST a serious recession whether you like it or not. Whether it becomes something even worse remains to be seen but is not out of the realm of possibility.

So, feel free to make snide remarks but get this, prepare yourself or suffer the consequences. The forces arrayed against the continued prosperity of America are numerous and formidable.

[unlawflcombatnt]

78. ?Quoting from Marx?

What are you talking about? Where am I "quoting from Marx"?

[Ripley]

86. Yes, whenever someone points out reality..

that means they HOPE for the worst outcome.

Just smile and pretend everything is A-OK and it will be!!!!

[Imagevision]

74. Historically, january - February are the two weakest reatail months of the year...

[unlawflcombatnt]

80. Then It'll get worse

If January and February do get worse, then we'll almost certainly be in a recession at that time.

[kineneb]

82. Grocery store (and other) observations

purely unscientific observations on the current (and possible future) state of the economy...

...went in to grocery store yesterday- Jan 31, and found piles of Christmas candies still on sale, almost a full week after Christmas; gourmet holiday stuff did not move as well as last year...

...Christmas lights- not nearly as many people put up outdoor lights this year...

...was in Davis, CA, on Friday before Christmas, and stores were already marking stuff 'way down, and there was lots of inventory- I bet it didn't all sell before the holiday...

---
Did anyone here get info on Christmas retail-sales numbers? Did the retailers break even? That will tell us a great deal. Hmmm...

[unlawflcombatnt]

83. Christmas Sales Disappointing

The general theme I'm hearing from the news is that Christmas sales were less than expected. I've read on several occasions now that sales were expected to be 5% greater than last year, but the increase was only 3%. The 3% number puts the increase in sales right slightly above the government-concocted inflation number, the Consumer Price Index However, with an annual population increase of roughly 1%, the break even point for sales should be inflation + population increase. As of the end of November, using the CPI, that would be 2.4% + 1% = 3.4%. It seems from this alone that real per capita sales were less than last year.

Bloomberg states that "U.S. holiday retail sales rose 3 percent from 2005, compared with last year's 5.2 percent increase, as a slowing housing market and higher energy costs crimped spending, MasterCard Advisors said today. The unit of Purchase, New York-based MasterCard Inc. measured sales from the day after Thanksgiving to Christmas Eve."

Below are several more references to the Christmas shopping season.

from Businessweek:Retail Results Signal Tough Times Ahead

from the New York Times:Rush at End, but Holiday Sales Fall Short

from Bloomberg News:U.S. Holiday Sales Increase 3%, Less Than in 2005

from CNN Money:Holiday sales end strong but overall sales come up short

from Herald Net:Shoppers dash retailers' hopes

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[Ripley]

85. No kidding.

Two weeks before Xmas I saw huge markdowns (50-75%) at major department stores - having worked that retail before, that is usually the kind of slashing withheld until the day before Xmas. They were practically giving away name brand crap.

[TheWatcher]

84. Another Brilliant Post unlawflcombatnt

I always read them intently. And sadly, you are correct.

This country has no idea what is about to hit it economically.

But I have a feeling they will know soon.

[kineneb]

88. more gloom- AsiaTimes online article

ATimes- One of the most interesting online sources for economic news and analysis.

(long, but really worth the read)

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HL23Dj01.html

first paragraph...

"Rising inflation and falling home prices are likely to push the US economy into recession by the second half of 2007. Gathering economic weakness, combined with negative real yields on US Treasury securities and growing political pressure to weaken the dollar will lead to significant dollar depreciation against most currencies."

...snip...

"By every measure, inflation in the US has clearly accelerated since 2004. In 2005, the Federal Reserve?s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator exceeded 2% for the first time since 1995. The core PCE has continued to accelerate in 2006, and will likely top 2.5% by the end of the year. This is significant because the Fed?s stated aim is to keep core PCE between 1.5% and 2%. The steady acceleration of core PCE shows that inflation from rising energy prices has penetrated the broader US economy."

...snip...

"The combination of rising defaults, foreclosures and falling collateral values is beginning to weaken the balance sheets of mortgage lenders, including several of America?s largest banks. Growing weakness in the banking sector is very alarming. Banking sector and economic crises in many countries over the past 25 years can be traced to overly enthusiastic credit growth used to finance either capital investment or real estate speculation, or both. Japan offers a stunning example of what can happen after a real estate bubble bursts."

[unlawflcombatnt]

89. Good Article

Thanks for the link. The Asian Times frequently has good assessments of the U.S. economy. It appears that honest, truthful articles that are pessimistic about the U.S. economy are difficult to get published in U.S. newspapers.

[Manifestor_of_Light]

92. I fell out of work in clinton's first admin

Hell I fell out of the middle class in the 90s and couldn't find any work nearly at the level I am qualified for. Had a few crappy very stressful jobs way below my capacity...looked for work for several years, and gave up.

[unlawflcombatnt]

93. How is it under Bush?

Have things gotten better for you under Bush, or are they even worse?

[joeprogressive]

95. Wow, so you are a sample of one

So we should just throw out every thing we know about the successful 90's because you had it tough. If someone told me they lost money in the stock market during the 90's I would have to say they were really unlucky, really stupid or were lying.

I'm sure that thousands upon thousands can claim what you have about employment woes but the fact is for the vast majority it was not just a financially prosperous time but a time of relative peace in the world. America was also respected during Clinton's era.

Today the middle class is shrinking and the remaining middle and lower classes are finding it impossible to stay afloat. These are bad times and I do agree that we are heading for a recession followed by a depression.

[wordpix]

97. Personally, I'm happy to see residential construction slowdown since the NE is overbuilt

and housing is way too expensive. How about $500,000 for a fixer-upper or starter home? In CT, that IS the price.

One way to turn this around in a positive way is for our newly elected Congress to give incentives to renovate existing buildings/homes for energy efficiency. I'm talking about solar panels, wind generators, insulation and so on.

I had to pay sales tax on my new pellet stove and I think that sucks. Energy systems that keep us from guzzling oil and gas should not be taxed, IMO.

[wordpix]

98. The economy IS great---if you're heading up KBR, Halliburton, Exxon, Blackwater, Heritage Foundation

and so on

[unlawflcombatnt]

99. Factory Orders: Long-Term Decline

Though today's Factory Order report showed a 1 month increase, the overall trend is still downward. Below is a modified partial copy of January 4th's Factory Order report from Briefing.com




Clearly the longer-term trend in Factory Orders has been downward since April. Below are 2 more graphs showing the same downward trend. The top graph shows the longer term trend in Factory Orders. The lower graph shows the trend in Non-Durable Goods production.







Both of the above graphs show a year-over-year change of approximately 0. Furthermore, the trend is downward as well.

Combining today's Factory Order report with yesterday's Construction Spending decline and Auto Sales decline, it appears most production-oriented industries are shrinking.

Though today's Factory Order report shows an increase of +0.9% over October, it is not enough to compensate for October's -4.5% change over the September. The long-term trend is still downward.

There's a word that describes an economy where all production industries are contracting.

The word is recession.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[unlawflcombatnt]

100. Consumer Credit Report: 1/8/07

Below is a modified copy of Briefing.com's latest Consumer Credit report. November's Consumer Credit jumped $12.3 billion, over twice the $6.0 billion predicted by market analysts. (Note: This "Consumer Credit" does not include home equity loans or or borrowing.)





The total Consumer Credit increase over the last 5 months (July through November) has been $41 billion. For the last 5 months the annualized rate of increase is $98.4 billion. (Again, this amount excludes home equity extraction.) December will likely be higher still.

One has to wonder how much longer economic growth can be sustained almost exclusively on debt-financed consumer spending -- through either credit card spending, non-revolving credit, or home equity extraction.

The annual increase in consumer spending is being financed almost exclusively with borrowed money. Once again, this is not a sustainable situation. Unless wage-financed spending starts replacing debt-financed spending, we're going to have a "hard" landing. And a very hard landing at that.

unlawflcombatnt

Economic Populist Forum

EconomicPopulistCommentary

___________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

[kineneb]

101. and those of us without credit

are busy cleaning out the thrift stores. I was in one today, it seemed rather busy for mid-day on a Monday. (Bought a dress for $6.50 and a book on oil painting technique for $3.00; all in all, a good shopping day.)

[kineneb]

102. housing bubble pop going to be ugly

according to Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article16104.htm

Samples...

"The American people appear to be oblivious to the economic hurricane which is expected to touchdown in late 2007. That?s when $1 trillion in ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) will ?reset? triggering a massive increase in foreclosures and plunging the country into a deep recession. If energy costs continue to rise at the same time or if the dollar loses more ground, we may be rooting around in the backyard garden-plot looking for passed-over spuds and radishes."

<snip>
"The fallout from the housing explosion will be much more destructive than what most people imagine. In fact, Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. believes that the NY Times? estimates are too optimistic. Schiff anticipates that failures in the sub-prime loan market will put greater downward pressure on housing by increasing inventory and lowering prices.

Schiff says:

?The secondary effects of the ?1 out of 5? sub-prime default rate will be a chain reaction of rising interest rates and falling home prices engendering still more defaults, with the added foreclosures causing the cycle to repeat. In my opinion, when the cycle is fully played out we are more likely to see an 80% default rate rather than 20%?.

80%!?!

40 million Americans headed towards foreclosure? Better pick out a comfy spot in the local park to set up the lean-to.

Schiff?s calculations may be overly pessimistic, but his reasoning is sound. Once mortgage-holders realize that their homes are worth tens of thousands less than the amount of their loan they are likely to ?mail in their house keys rather than make the additional mortgage payments.?

<snip>

"Because in 2003, 35% of all mortgages were ?nonconforming? loans. In 2004, it went up to 59%; and in 2005, nonconforming loans were a mammoth 65% of all mortgages! As the lenders return to more conventional practices the pool of potential customers will dry up accordingly and housing prizes will fall precipitously."

-----
Time to put in that "victory" garden. And this analysis does not include the economic effect of a possible attack on Iran. Yikes!

[unlawflcombatnt]

103. Excellent Article

Thanks for the article. It's excellent. Whitney points out how we are being fed falsely optimistic housing information from the real estate industry, as well as the government. He also states that housing prices are far beyond any historical relationship to rents or salaries. He believes the housing prices are bound to come down, and to come down fast.