New GALLUP POLL on Democratic Hopefuls (Obama and Hill fare best)

[jefferson_dem]

Credentials and Personality Both Factor in Defining 2008 Democratic Hopefuls
Democrats widely praise Clinton and Obama on both dimensions

by Lydia Saad

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- What first comes to mind when you think about some of the top Democrats considering a run for president in 2008? Gallup asked just that question in a recent national survey, focusing on New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, and former Vice President Al Gore.

Personality and political leadership credentials are closely matched as the top factors people have in mind when reflecting on these political figures. Issues barely register, except in the case of Gore, whose name conjures up the environment for many people.

According to respondents' verbatim answers to the Nov. 27-29 Gallup Panel survey, each Democrat triggers a wide array of public reactions. Gallup categorized the responses as positive, negative, or neutral. Clinton and Obama enjoy the greatest extent of laudatory comments -- significantly more than Gore and twice as many as Kerry. Americans have little negative to say about Obama (mostly just "young and inexperienced"), in part because more than a third can't think of anything at all to say about him. By contrast, few Americans are at a loss for words when asked to give their impressions of Clinton, Kerry, or Gore. The remaining distribution is more negative than positive for each of these three, but is particularly negative for Kerry.



The first test of whether any of these figures is true presidential timber will come from Democrats during the nomination process that is already beginning. Commentary about each is more positive among the Democrats surveyed than among the general population. However, Kerry's image among Democrats is still highly problematic for someone hoping to get a second chance at the nomination. Gore is viewed more positively than Kerry, but about as many Democrats say something negative about him as something positive



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http://www.galluppoll.com/content/Default.aspx?ci=25768&VERSION=p

[blm]

1. Results as expected considering the ratio of highly positive/highly negative media

attention on the various names.

[1932]

9. Then how do you explain Clinton's numbers? People in graph 1 and 2 are

absorbing the same media. Obviously there's another filter people are applying.

[blm]

11. Cumulative - heavy negs for years while in the WH. Gore's are from heavy negs

from his race. And Kerry's represent the last 4 yrs of heavy negative focus.

It doesn't help that the Carville wing of the party has treated both Gore and Kerry as if they deserve to be pariahs in their efforts to cover up the incompetence of the weak DNC we had in 2000, 2002, and 2004 run by their buddies. But they sure did blame Dean and the DNC as the problem when Dems won last month.

Funny how that gang works, eh? Too bad they still influence a number of Democrats.

[jefferson_dem]

13. Easy. The first graph is for all adults, the second is for Democrats.

The difference is indicative of what we expect from Hill the Great Polarizer! See how most within the general population like her but she draws big support among Dems and Dem-Leaners. While that might bode well for her in her quest for the nomination, it may also spell DOOM in the General Election.

[1932]

18. They're watching the same media, so the reason Kerry is doing poorly among

both groups isn't because of the medai.

[OzarkDem]

2. Waaay to early

Sorry, I don't let the news media pick my candidates.

[kegler14]

3. A Clinton nomination

is tantamount to handing the presidency to the Republicans. She can't win.

[mtnsnake]

4. BS

[kegler14]

6. Look at the really important stuff Hillary's taking on.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3006308

Pitiful. Even worse, she's been a supporter of the war. How dumb can you be?

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[hijinx87]

5. at this point . . . .

obama is a equivalent of a rorschach ink blot. everyone is
seeing in him what they subconsciously want to see in a
presidential candidate.

that's the problem with someone that hasn't been on the national
stage very long.

[AtomicKitten]

7. Obama looks like a very attractive VP candidate (for Gore!!)

He just has to make sure he gets out ahead of the GOP Wrecking Machine and doesn't allow them to fill in the blanks.

[wisteria]

15. Well I liked Kerry/ Obama.

Now that would be an attractive ticket. :bounce:

[Hippo_Tron]

8. I wonder how much someone paid Gallup to gather statistical data that means NOTHING

It's December 2006, polling means absolutely nothing at this point.

[jefferson_dem]

12. Not necessarily.

I would agree that horserace/head-to-head polling at this point means almost nothing.

However, this type of poll - that asks respondents open-ended questions about the candidates' qualities and deficiencies - is very insightful, even at this stage. At the very least, results reflect the "prevailing image" they are projecting to the American electorate. That is not useless at all...but exactly the sort of "benchmark" numbers the candidates themselves would be interested in, as they look toward the upcoming campaign season.

[wisteria]

14. Kerry is suffering from the residual of the media smear. Again, as

in the other poll recently, he is the only Democrat who received negative press. Again, right now it is popularity and good press that is influencing the results of the poll.
But, I would wager a bet the major stations, like CNN won't fail to point out Kerry's failings. This to pat themselves on the back for a good smear job. I want to see the poll when they all get hammered the way Kerry was. Otherwise, this poll is worthless.

I will continue to support Kerry. IMHO,he was and remains the best candidate and I still believe his supports and Kerry himself can convince people that he can win in 08.
I refuse to be sucked into the media hype and the wrongheaded idea that we need a fresh face with a blank slate.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. Well I'm leaving the Kerry sticker on my car

until he is officially out of it.

[wisteria]

17. Mine isn't going anywhere either.

The last time I checked the elections weren't until 2008. We have a long way to go and Kerry has time to correct the wrongs that were done to him. I stand by him with my support.

[Ignacio Upton]

19. Someone explain to me how a man with a 61% negative rating

Has a chance of winning the Presidency? Or even a 50% negative rating? Granted Gore's negatives are also still high, but he isn't as thoroughly disliked as Hillary or Kerry. It's easier to overcome "I invented the internet" or "Love Canal" then it is to overcome Swiftboat accusations of being like Jane Fonda.

[Clark2008]

20. I'm voting for the person the corporate media REFUSES to

talk about.

It's safer for our country, it's better for our country and makes THEM look like the fools they are.