Who was the most **improbable** Dem winner in the 06 cycle?

[Stinky The Clown]

The question is not about 'best' or 'smartest' or 'most liberal' or anything other than just plain improbable.

To give the question due consideration, go back at least to the end of 2005. Who do you think overcame big odds, defied 'conventional wisdom', party cheerleaders, the media, and everything else and just came on and won in the most improbable outcome?

I confess to not knowing all the more obscure House races and may be overlooking one or three, but to me, it seems Jim Webb in Virginia was the most improbable win in the 06 cycle. If Ned Lamont had won, I'd have gone with that race instead.

What do you think? Who was the most improbable winner?

[DainBramaged]

1. You bet. Jim Webb hands down.

[IndianaGreen]

41. The Macaca incident!

Jim Webb and George Allen's meltdown!

[Midlodemocrat]

2. I agree with you that it was Webb. Especially that he was down

about 17% points this past summer and came soaring back to beat that POS Allen.

It's a good day to be a Virginian! :bounce:

[Eric J in MN]

12. Even more incredible is how James Webb was stuck 6 points down...

...for week after week in the middle of the campaign, and it seemed like nothing could move the numbers further.

[Eric J in MN]

3. John Hall (D-NY).

Sue Kelly got 67% in 2004 in NY-19.

She was a 12 year incumbent.

John Hall is a musician who never served in an office higher than the county-level.

New York state outside of New York City is usually considered Republican (but this year, Democrats beat 3 Republican incumbents outside NYC and came close in 3 other races.)

[SCDem]

16. The Colbert Bump

I think Hall owes a lot of grattitude to Cobert! Because of course after he appeared on the Colbert Report his numbers went up!

[magnolia]

27. Webb too.

Jim Webb first announced that he was running for the senate on Colbert. He had originally been scheduled to go on the show to promote his book "Born Fighting"....before he even thought about running. Later in the campaign when asked which TV interview he like best...he always said Colbert. He did great on that show.

[Eric J in MN]

38. John Hall won with just 51%, and so I'm sure that going

...on "The Colbert Report" helped.

[HereSince1628]

4. William "The Freezer" Jefferson

[Buzz Clik]

17. bingo.

[n2doc]

5. Guy that defeated Pombo- Jerry McNerney

McNerney had to first defeat the DCCC's hand picked candidate, then had to defeat an intrenched, powerful incumbent in a gerrymandered district. I don't think anybody really gave him a chance. Webb at least had help from Allen, so to speak...

[BrotherBuzz]

39. Indeed, and ironically, one of McNerney's biggest supporter was a republican...

the honorable and esteemed Pete McCloskey. A 78-year-old former Republican Congressman, Pete McCloskey helped write the 1974 Endangered Species Act, and did not take kindly to the ass Pombo messing with his legacy.

All in all, it was a sweet victory for the people!

[Skinner]

6. In the Senate: Jim Webb.

But there were a few in the House that were even more improbable. Like Dave Loebsack over Jim Leach in IA-02, or Carol Shea-Porter over Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

[trotsky]

7. Yeah, I was gonna say Shea-Porter.

Virtually no party backing, all grass roots, just defied all CW.

[question everything]

29. Tim Walz, MN-1 beat long time incumbent

Gil Gutknecht

[lojasmo]

33. Yup...came from nowhere...EOM

[amb123]

8. Sheldon Whitehouse over Lincoln Chafee

1) I never thought it possible that a GOP moderate could lose in New England.

2) If it weren't for George Allen riding the "macaca' train straight to oblivion, I would agree that Jim Webb was the most improbable winner.

[Eric J in MN]

10. Rhode Island is 7-2 Democratic voters to Republican voters...

...and so Sheldon Whitehouse had that going for him.

[Captain Hilts]

13. The demographics were never right for Chafee. I'm amazed he lasted

as long as he did.

But Dems in RI made the connection between electing a Republican, no matter how benevolent, and Republican leadership in the Senate. If he had switched parties he'd still be in. Instead, he was isolated and ineffectual in his own party.

My firm did polling in the 2000 race and it was just a matter of time before the political demographics caught up with him.

[Bukowski Fan]

19. It wasn't the demographics that aided Sheldon

The biggest factor in Sheldon's win was that he didn't have to fight a vicious primary battle and Chafee did. Bottom line. Chafee's numbers looked untouchable in the spring. By the time the summer rolled around and the Laffey campaign really turned negative, that's when the race became close. After the primary, Whitehouse simply kept rolling with the best field team in the country, and managed to turn out enough people in South Providence and Woonsocket to make the inevitable win.

I'd have to say the Webb win was the most unexpected for me personally. As someone who's political experience lies mainly in Virginia, I was looking just to give Allen a fight and maybe screw up his presidential run a year ago. No one, and I mean no one, could have predicted an Allen loss before the summer, and even then, it was still a longshot.

[Skinner]

15. That is an interesting one.

I agree that it was highly improbable. The polls indicate that the vast majority of voters in RI really *like* Chafee. But they couldn't stand Bush, and they were willing to vote out the guy they found personally appealing because of it.

I believe that if Chafee had switched to D, he would have won handily.

[Captain Hilts]

24. My firm did polling for him in 2000.

The primary battle should not have hurt an incumbent as well known as Chafee is.

His support derived from his family name, and his liberal stances. The Republican Party's general disdain for the Northeast got old and his being a Republican contributed to that. He should have switched parties.

Not unlike Connie Morella in many ways. People in her district realized that Republicans liked her for one month every two years. The other times, she was ignored and placed on ineffectual committees. People liked Morella, but not her treatment by her party or the fact that she contributed to the Republican Majority that placed Gingrich in power. She could have run and won Gov. of Maryland easily.

[AlinPA]

21. Yes.

[Captain Hilts]

9. Webb. The RNC and NRSC were really backing him. nt

[Eric J in MN]

11. Do you mean really backing George Allen?

Or that the Republicans were secretly backing Jim Webb?

[Captain Hilts]

14. Allen. He was a major Heir to W. nt

[stevietheman]

18. The guy who beat Hayworth in AZ -- I really couldn't believe that one n/t

n/t

[amb123]

42. Harry Mitchell is his name

He's my new Congressman! :D

[DU9598]

20. Dave Loebsack

In Iowa it is clearly Dave Loebsack who won in the US Congress, Iowa 2nd district with NO PARTY SUPPORT against a popular 30 year incumbent republican.

GO DAVE!!!! This college professor turned populist congressman will be a great addition to Congress.

[ncrainbowgrrl]

22. The dem who got Foley's seat! (can't think of his name)

[nuxvomica]

23. Carol Shea Porter beating Jeb Bradley in NH-1

She started out something like 34 points behind. She beat the DCCC candidate in the primary. She wasn't on anyone's radar and didn't get much help from the national party. She should be teaching other Dems how to run a grassroots campaign.

[Stinky The Clown]

25. I think that's a good choice ...... and wasn't she also a 'netroots' candidate ....

.... who's entire initial organization was 'leftovers' in the grassroots from the Dean, Edwards, Clark and Kerry campaigns who all came together to win the seat? Or am I thinking of another winner who did it that way?

[Tom Rinaldo]

32. Yup. Here's a link to a thread I did about her on November 2nd

I am thrilled that she won.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=2922777

[Stinky The Clown]

26. What are the thoughts about Sestak over Weldon ... was that also an 'improbable'?

Weldon was surely an entrenched incumbent.

[Divine Discontent]

28. oh, gotta be...

jefferson! how do you get caught with money in your freezer from bribes and STILL get elected?

www.cafepress.com/warisprofitable <<-- new stuff

[KansDem]

30. Nancy Boyda, Kansas 2nd District...

Nancy Boyda was the successful Democratic Party nominee in the 2006 congressional election for the 2nd Congressional District of Kansas (map). She defeated Republican Rep. Jim Ryun 51% to 47% to take possession of the seat.

Biography
Boyda graduated from William Jewell college receiving dual degrees in education and chemistry. She has worked as an analytical chemist and field inspector for the Environmental Protection Agency and as held management positions at numerous pharmaceutical companies. Boyda is married to Steve Boyda and has three children and five step-children. She lives in Topeka, Kansas.

2006 Campaign
Boyda was the Democratic Party nominee in the 2006 congressional election for the 2nd Congressional District of Kansas. She defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Jim Ryun 51% to 47% to take possession of the seat.

Boyda campaigned against ideological conservatism and the role of money in politics. She ran for renewable energy, fiscal discipline, and a changed policy in Iraq.

Sourcewatch

She beat star-athlete Jim Ryun to capture Kansas's 2nd District. Now two of the state's four districts are Democratic...

[PVnRT]

31. That's what I was thinking

I figure Lawrence is good to elect one Democrat from kansas, but two? Seems things are starting to shift around in that state, kind of like in Indiana.

[wakemeupwhenitsover]

34. Talent beating burns.

burns was/is a corrupt sonofabitch, but he was Montana's & had been there forever.

[Ediacara]

36. You mean Tester?

Talent was the incumbant Republican in Missouri that lost to Claire McCaskill. Jon Tester beat Conrad Burns in Montana.

[wakemeupwhenitsover]

40. Yes, I mean Tester. Sorry.

:hide:

eta :hi:

[Stinky The Clown]

37. I think you meant Testor ......... no?

[Ediacara]

35. Webb, Shea-Porter, and Boyda

VA Senate, NH-01, and KS-02 respectively.

[Joe Bacon]

43. THe one that pleased me most was Jason Altmire

I love how he snuck under Melissa Fart, er, Hart in PA-4!

[1932]

44. I was surprised that Webb didn't win by more

After all the stuff Allen did, it's amazing he got as many votes as he did.