Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Mark Penn's analysis of why Gore lost....looking back at 2000 in light of Penn's Venezuela polling.

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 03:53 PM
Original message
Mark Penn's analysis of why Gore lost....looking back at 2000 in light of Penn's Venezuela polling.
Yesterday I posted this article about Mark Penn's company and the polls they do around the world. This month they did one in Venezuela, which apparently did not reflect how things were really going for Chavez.

Penn, Schoen & Berland, Mark Penn a pollster for Hillary. Just in Venezuela.

It is pretty long but here is a paragraph that bothered me.

"Penn, Schoen and Berland (PSB) has played a pioneering role in the use of polling operations, especially "exit polls," in facilitating coups. Its primary mission is to shape the perception that the group installed into power in a targeted country has broad popular support...the deployment of polling agencies' "exit polls" broadcast on international television...give the false impression of massive vote-fraud by the ruling party, to put targeted states on the defensive."(4)


I was doing a further search today and found this write-up by Mark Penn from 2000 about why Gore lost. I give him a few of his points, but this paragraph is just wrong.

http://www.dlc.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=127&subid=179&contentid=2922

Instead of running as a New Economy Democrat, Al Gore used an old-style populism that reduced his appeal rather than expanded it. The message prevented him from reaching the swing voters who could have pushed him over the top. Gore narrowly won the popular vote with this message by piling up large wins in states like California, where extra votes fail to count. But the message sent him tumbling backward in key border states, in his home state and, finally, in the electoral college. Liberal positions on social issues along with populism and big government positions took what could have been a substantial win and turned it into a draw. Had Gore combined his positions of conscience on social issues with a new vision of the role of government, he would have carried a larger percentage of upwardly mobile, socially tolerant suburban men that would have helped him win.


In what world is half a million votes considered "narrowly winning"? I believe Gore's own Democrats let him down when it came to standing up on the recount. Not on the surface, but covertly. And Gore's emerging "populism" was getting attention that was good, not bad.

This paragraph, the last one in the article shows either terrible or deliberate misjudgement on Penn's part. His take on Bush's character is way off the mark.

Now the tables are turned, and it is Bush who must reach out to Gore's voters to build a new coalition of support or he will fail in governing. Bush must now put together a coalition greater than the 48 percent he received. The voters Bush needs to reach are the DLC Democrats -- concerned about the size of government, but firmly committed to progress on major issues like health care, education, family, and crime. They want government that will give people the tools they need to succeed in the 21st century. They are looking for a president and Congress that will continue the job started by President Clinton.


Uh, Mark, hate to break this to you. He did not even reach out to you guys, now did he?

I have often wondered if companies like Penn, Schoen & Berland, who work with polling overseas...do the same here.


Last week, Mr. Schoen, of Penn, Schoen & Berland, released the findings of his latest survey on the Venezuelan evening news. As expected, Penn's survey showed that Chavez's opposition, Manuel Rosales, was nearly tied in the polls with Chavez. Chavez, it showed, had only 48% support, and his opponent Manuel Rosales had gained significantly up to 42%. This poll is now being reported across all the major Venezuelan media, to a huge audience, showing that Rosales was gaining more and more everyday, and could possibly win. Mr. Schoen added his personal opinion, "The momentum is clearly with Rosales."(10) With the help of the mainstream media, almost all of which is vehemently opposed to the popular president, these fake polls have reached a wide audience."


From Upside Down World.
http://upsidedownworld.org/main/content/view/503/1

The Miami Herald also carried an article on this polling last week:

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/16151906.htm

"CARACAS - A sudden change in the management team of a U.S.-based polling firm working for opponents of President Hugo Chávez has raised eyebrows on the eve of presidential elections today."








Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
robinlynne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 03:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. excuse me. Gore did not lose. He won.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 03:58 PM
Response to Original message
2. BTW- six years ago today was the Bush v. Gore decision
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. I guess time flies...sort of
The next two years are already feeling like they will take awhile, though.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #2
11. How could I have forgotten that? Thanks for the link.
What a dark day that was. A relative had called earlier that week from another state and said the Rushism that was going around.."can't you idiots there in Florida get it right?"

I was heartbroken with him, and I just hung up.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 04:02 PM
Response to Original message
3. Mark Penn is having a cognitive disconnect.
He blames economic populism for Gore losing in borders states. Then suggests that the way to win is wooing suburban voters by being more liberal on social issues and conservative on economic ones. This is simply moronic.

Economic populism is popular in Tennessee to the point that even rich Republicans there try to run as populists. Fred Thompson rented a red pickup truck to travel the state for his campaign and Lamar Alexander tried the populist routine with his plaid shirts. Bush even tried to run as a populist. It was a big fake act but Karl Rove knows it works better than running as the candidate of the rich.

Does Penn know anything at all about the South and border states? Does he really think there are enough suburban soccer Moms in Missouri and Tennessee that a candidate can win on a socially liberal platform? Here's a clue for Penn, economic populism is a hell of a lot more popular in borders states than gay marriage and abortion, dipshit. Save that strategy for New York and Mass, where it might actually work.

Gore's mistake was that he waited to long to let his true populist colors shine through. If he had been consistent in that message from the beginning, it would have resonated better and he would have come off as someone with more conviction. Gore lost because he listened to the Penn DLC crowd for too long.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TabulaRasa Donating Member (223 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. No. His mistake was not sticking to it.
He wasn't too late with the message. He gained incredible traction from it after the convention (in spite of the corporate media dementedly suggesting that he was gaining traction by dry humping his wife on stage at the convention). But after that, the DLC strategists told him to back away from it, and he did. He returned to his old namby-pamby self, and his lead slowly evaporated. The coup de grace was the second debate with Bush, in which he agreed with the guy on virtually everything. He tried to return to populism a couple days before the election, but by then it was too late. (And by the way, he won the election handily.) All the revisionism in the world from Clinton and his corporate media cohorts can't change the facts. Fuck ... someone do a research paper, or something. Look at the news clippings of Gore's messages of the day, side by side with the polls. I followed them closely during the election and am absolutely sure they'll support my thesis.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 07:24 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. By convention time
the campaign is half over. I would call that too late to be changing your message, but otherwise I think you're right.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
John Q. Citizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 04:03 PM
Response to Original message
4. PSB are paid liars, apparently. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BlueManDude Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 04:16 PM
Response to Original message
7. Penn is getting rich off of Hillary Clinton.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ms liberty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 04:20 PM
Response to Original message
8. This echoes and verifies what we have known all along...
That the media tooks sides in the 2000 election, with the assistance of pundits, polling companies, the corporatocracy, and the machinations of the GOP. They were all determined to make Gore look like a loser, and make The Shrub look like a winner. The powers that 'were' in the Democratic party essentially stood by and watched as Gore was taken down throughout the campaign...and then during the recount they did as little as possible to fight for the votes. Gore did as well as he could, and fought as hard as he could, for as long as he could. Unfortunately, with the SCOTUS decision, it came to an unnatural, and wrong end - and Al Gore conceded with grace and dignity. It was the only choice left to him, because America (rightly) would not have followed him had he defied the Supreme Court.

Now we need him to run for '08. If he does, I for one won't let it happen again.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Rageneau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. I'm afraid that Gore did NOT fight as hard as he could
My (vivid) memory of the Florida fiasco is that Gore retreated into the background, did not raise obvious arguments to influence public perception (for example, Gore needed only a couple of Florida's electoral votes to win the whole shebang while Bush needed ALL of them, so Gore could easily have argued that the people of the US had spoken clerarly by giving him a clear victory everywhere BUT Florida and a likely victory there, too, if a full recount had been done.) Then, Gore conceded so wimpily that even the GOP and the MSM complimented him on his cooperation. Finally, I clearly remember Gore happily certifying the states electoral votes in defiance of the Black caucus who BEGGED him to fight.

But he DIDN'T fight, and therefore he didn't win.

Yes, the rest of the Democrats were equally as wimpy about Florida, but the leadership to fight the pugs was not there.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
peacetalksforall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
10. Two things stand out: DLC Democrats and propaganda!
Reference to 'DLC Democrats' in light of what I've learned and suspected about the DLC is an interesting way of categorizing. I've only categorized DLC as the organization that gets to call all the crucial shots in the elections. I never categorized the followers of DLC. Would DLC Democrats recognize themselves if they weren't employed by or working for the DLC?

It now appears final after getting to know polling companies, that some operate under the guise of polling, but are merely propaganda 'strategizers' and operatives.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 06:01 PM
Response to Original message
12. And, as it turns out, Chavez won by about 63% of the vote, in the most
highly monitored elections on earth (hundreds of international monitors, with free run of the place, from the OAS, the EU, the Carter Center).

One of the interesting things that happened is that Rosales immediately conceded the next day--and not just because he had been so badly beaten. In his concession, he distanced himself from the USAID-NED-Penn crowd, who had tried a violent military coup, a crippling oil professionals' strike and a wasteful and absurd recall election (which Chavez handily won by 60%), to unseat Chavez, and who were likely planning riots, based on Penn's false polls, along with the collusive corporate news media and involvement of the military, to try to unseat Chavez again. And Rosales balked. He refused to do it. He promised to provide the country with a RESPONSIBLE opposition and to offer the Chavez government constructive criticism.

Well, knock me over with a feather. My opinion of Rosales went up about a thousand notches. I was ready for more US taxpayer-funded trouble-making in Venezuela. And he wouldn't do it!

I like Chavez--but I think the story of Venezuela is the story of its people and their passionate commitment to social change and to democracy. Chavez is an expression of them. He is not some "strong man" who has taken over. That is an insult to the Venezuelans, who have made democracy work--from re-writing their Constitution, to hard work on transparent elections! (They handcount FIFTY-FIVE PERCENT of the vote in Venezuela, cuz they don't trust the electronic voting machines. Get that, my stupido fellow and sister North Americans? 55%!! Know how much WE hand-count? 0 to 1%!)

Anyway, Chavez and his government NEED a decent opposition--say, responsible, patriotic, well-intentioned businessfolks who can help integrate the capitalist/socialist economy that the majority has in mind. It's not an easy task. And the US-funded opposition has been into whining and getting handouts from Bush (our tax dollars) and throwing temper tantrums, and plotting coups--and expecting the country to tip over and pour all the oil profits into their pockets, as before. They are ridiculous. And, given what-all they've done to destabilize their own country, the Chavistas have ended up with all the power in the government--sometimes inadvertently. For instance, before the last midterms for the National Assembly, the election commission asked the opposition what they wanted. (They are always complaining--and this time they were threatening to boycott the elections.) They said, the fingerprint ID was being misused--get rid of it. The election commission complied--and STILL this rich oil elite opposition BOYCOTTED the midterms. So they ended up with fewer seats than they should have. They probably did this because they were losing. But still, it ended in a lopsided Chavista National Assembly. Now, I don't have any objection to the vast poor population and other leftists having good representation in government. They are the majority. But ANYBODY, and I mean anybody, can take advantage of a situation of power, and start making mistakes, and fail to think things through, and even become corrupt and entrenched. And the leaders can get big heads. Even if they ARE the majority, they can misuse their power and become corrupt, if they don't have strong and thoughtful criticism, and oversight. Democracy lesson #1: Every government needs oversight. And I don't mean the tweedle-dee/tweedle-dum Dem/Repub thing we've had here for so long. Chavez & Gov't have been getting criticism from the left. (Chavez is actually a moderate on economic issues.) But there ARE businesspeople in Venezuela, of all shapes and sizes, and a middle and professional class, and some more cautious and conservatives types (I don't mean raving lunatic freepers), who need representation and need to be heard--for the sake of democracy, and for the sake the majority succeeding in its progressive program, to the benefit of all.

And I am very glad that Rosales has decided to represent THEM, and not George Bush and his bought and paid for rich oil elite parasites and trouble-makers. It is a good day for Venezuela.

I never thought I'd be arguing for a conservative point of view. But I'm actually a conservative in some ways. You wouldn't think it from some of my beliefs. For instance, I think we need to bust up all the major corporations in the US. I'm for small, competitive business and trade--and against monopolies. That, to me, is conservatism. And you can have socialist monopolies that are not healthy. ANY monopoly tends to become corrupt. In Venezuela, they're trying to feed extremely poor people--an act that I certainly approve of. But to do it, they created government-subsidized grocery stores, where the very poor can buy food very cheaply. I read an article about a small grocer who was being driven out of business by this gov't monopoly (by undercutting her prices). Now that's where a responsible businessperson could provide constructive criticism. Do you want a big state monopoly on food? How do you feed the poorest of the poor, but in a way that promotes trade, innovation and adequate production of good food? Or maybe you can't. Maybe you just have to feed the very poor, period--as a handout. In that case, what can you do for the small grocer, in her plight? And, what controls do you need to prevent corruption and mismanagement in the food supply?

Socialist policies NEED criticism--and the maverick, creative, self-reliant, business-type perspective is essential to any socialist enterprise. It's only when either thing--capitalism or socialism--gets out of control that you have problems. Communism tends to let things get corrupt and out of control (at least historically). Soviet Russia became a hogpen of corruption, as dirty as Washington DC. And predatory capitalism certainly tends to corruption--look at this predatory capitalist mess the Bushite Republicans have created here! If you define capitalism as the human desire to trade--not the ugly, bloated monstrosity we see around us today, in these long-lived corporations that gobble up wealth and power--but rather as the adventurous and creative spirit, that likes to make things, and likes to go sailing, seeking new trade routes and unusual products, and needs a bit of capital for the venture, or the spirit that creates colorful marketplaces, and centers of business and cultural interchange, I'm all for capitalism. I think it is a deep human need. And socialism--basically sharing, so that no one is in want, and so that everyone has a chance for a good life--is also a great human desire and need--our motherly side. We don't abandon the elderly and the young and the sick. We extract a fair tax from everyone, for the common good. With that, we build a decent society.

Rosales now has a chance to help Venezuela become a decent society, and to avoid the pitfalls of an overly controlled and centralized economy. I hope this is what his quick concession means--that Venezuela will now have the energies and cooperation of all its people, in maintaining good government, strengthening is democracy, and contributing to the awesome trade group that Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile are going to make (eventually adding Peru, and even Colombia and Paraguay). South America is on the rise!

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 09:41 PM
Response to Original message
14. Oh, my, if this is true, it sickens me.
Edited on Tue Dec-12-06 09:46 PM by madfloridian
This is a very long article. These are just two paragraphs that jumped out at me.

http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/intervention/2006/1128coupsteps.htm

"Two weeks ago, on Globovision, one of the major private channels in Venezuela, opposition leader Rafael Poleo called on Venezuelans to do the “Ukrainian” on the day after the elections.(11) Claiming the elections will be fraudulent, Poleo, who was involved in the 2002 coup attempt, described in detail a “plan” to remove Chavez from power after the elections. Comparing it to the “Orange Revolution", the plan calls for Venezuelans to come out en masse to protest against the Chavez government and what they call “fraudulent elections.” Poleo then made a call to the high military command to back this “movement", in what basically amounts to a call to overthrow the government.

Two weeks from now, we’ll see how all of this plays out. Will the popular Chavez continue to rule as the president of the masses? Or, will the U.S.-trained opposition be able to pull off a “Ukrainian” in Venezuela? The opposition’s claims of fraud are totally baseless, and even from the most superficial observation, it is clear that Chavez maintains overwhelming support. But, the U.S.-organized strategy seeks to produce mass protests and perhaps military rebellion to unseat their popular enemy. With the help of Penn, Schoen & Berland, they just might get enough people in the streets to cause some trouble. For the coup planners, that’s exactly what they need."

I discovered this group while doing a search for "This Brand is Crisis", which was about Carville's company with Greenberg and Bob Shrum. I believe it was called GCS.

The trailer for the movie:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/770





Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-13-06 01:54 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. More on their involvement in Venezuela..
"The campaign is U.S.-designed and uses modern marketing techniques, and catchy slogans. As shown in the 2005 documentary movie “Our Brand Is Crisis", about a U.S. team who designed the campaign of their favored candidate in Bolivia, these brilliant campaigns use sophisticated methods to create exactly the image they need for their candidate. They tend to target youth, and often include youth movements as they have with Primero Justica (Justice First) in Venezuela. The branding of the campaign with a color, and a one-word slogan is an important part of the U.S.-designed campaigns. In Serbia is the slogan was “Otpor", meaning resistance. In Georgia is was “Kmara” (Enough!). In Ukraine, “Pora", means “It’s Time!", and now, in Venezuela, the brand is “Atrevete,” roughly translated as “Be bold!”

The second step has been to use the mass media to create the perception that the elections are fraudulent. They have done this in a variety of ways. The NED has funded an organization, Sumate (one-word slogan that means “join up"), with the expressed goal of “achieving a high level of citizen participation in Venezuelan elections." (7) Founded in 2002, Sumate organized the campaign for the recall referendum to revoke Chavez’s presidential term. They lost the recall vote in August 2004 by a large margin, but went on to claim, with the help of Penn, Schoen, and Berland’s “exit polls,” that the election was fraudulent. Five other polls showed exactly the opposite and concurred with the official voting results in which Chavez won by a wide margin. PSB and Sumate, however, maintained that the opposition had won and that Chavez had committed “massive fraud” in spite of the fact that 5 of the 6 polls concurred with the official results, and that the voting process was certified by both the Carter Center and the Organization of American States.(8) Consequently, Chavez’s image as a democratically elected leader was damaged both nationally and internationally. The fraud claim resonated through the major media, and planted doubts about Chavez’s legitimacy.

Since the recall referendum, the campaign has been non-stop. Sumate and other opposition groups continue to attack the electoral process in Venezuela, claiming it is not transparent and unfairly controlled by the Chavez government. The major media in Venezuela have wholeheartedly supported this campaign giving coverage to Sumate, and their constant press releases denouncing problems with the electoral process. The idea is to decieve enough people into believing that the Chavez regime is not popularly supported, but is holding on to power through fraudulent elections. They have already been fairly successful in convincing a percentage of the population.

Finally, they must get enough people out into the streets in order to create a situation in which a transition of power could take place. Here is where Penn, Schoen & Berland comes in. In the recent months in the lead up to the December 2006 elections, Penn, Schoen & Berland has been instrumental in shaping public perception."

http://www.globalpolicy.org/empire/intervention/2006/1128coupsteps.htm
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Samantha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 10:56 PM
Response to Original message
15. Gore lost Tennessee by 70,000 votes due to vote suppression
Let's not rewrite history any more than what has already been attempted, Mr. Penn.

Tennessee was a mini-Florida. The issues on depressing the vote simply did not get the same press. However, three of the lawsuits ultimately filed by the DOJ, by Ashcroft, no less, were from violations of the African-Americans right to vote in the State of Tennessee.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 11:01 PM
Response to Original message
16. God Damn it! He won! nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Gloria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-12-06 11:25 PM
Response to Original message
17. Didn't Gore surge when he took on the populist message???
Yes, he did....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
madfloridian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-13-06 11:48 PM
Response to Original message
19. From the WP...can someone explain the discrepancy in the Venezuelan polls?
And the purpose thereof? Why does this Penn company gain from this...were the polls being manipulated? Surely sounds that way. But why?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/05/AR2006120501174.html

"Close Call in Venezuela -- or Not

The Great Venezuela Polling Wars are over, for now. Incumbent President Hugo Chávez crushed his opponent 63 percent to 37 percent to win another six-year term. So which pollsters predicted a 26-point victory? Two Venezuelan firms predicted 27-point spreads, Zogby weighed in at 29, and the Associated Press at 32. Evans McDonough came in a bit low at 22.

And Penn, Schoen & Berland, which is Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's pollster? It recently had Chávez ahead by about six points with his opponent, Manuel Rosales, closing. "This is a very close race, with what appears to be an evenly divided electorate," Douglas Schoen told the Washington Times just before Sunday's election.

So how to explain the much-anticipated Chávez landslide? "In the closing days," Schoen partner Mark Penn said, "it appears that Chávez consolidated the undecided voters."

Ah, yes. That must be it."

What was gained by all this? Why the discrepancies? And bottom line why are the companies like Carville's and like Penn's doing this stuff in other countries while advising an American (possible) presidential candidate? There, I said it.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Thu Apr 25th 2024, 07:31 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC