Will the blue states remain blue?

[LuckyTheDog]

Does anyone see any of the "Kerry states" flipping to the GOP in 2008? I sure don't. If the Dems take all those states plus, say, Ohio (which has turned a dark shade of blue), they get the White House.

It's early. But, after two more years of GW Bush at the helm, I just don't see the Republicans gaining a lot of fresh support.

[skipos]

1. I think Hillary could lose some blue states against a strong GOPer

For example, WI and MN are not sure things for Dems.

[HappyWeasel]

4. I think that we basically firewalled all of our states in the last election.

Looking at the trends, the only states that are not firewalled are Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Ohio (Whoever win the most votes WILL win these states). It would take 53% of the vote for the dems to tak Virginia or Florida and 53% of the vote for the GOP to take Minnesota or Wisconsin (In Wisconsin, the national electorate shifted by 3000000 votes to the right and yet Wisconsin shifted 20000 votes to the left)...and with Doyle getting handily re-elected and Dr.Keagan getting elected, I think this assumption is about right. I could be wrong about Minnesota, where the RNC is being held.

[Infinite Hope]

8. Minnesota would not switch. Wisconsin likely wouldn't either.

Minnesota is more blue than people realize. Republican governors are elected only after fighting 2-3 strong left candidates and even then it's often close.

[Hippo_Tron]

17. Not only that but Minnesota is the state with the strongest Green Party

If progressives were united under the DFL, Pawlenty probably wouldn't be in office.

[Clark2008]

14. Add Pennsylvania and Michigan to that list if HRC is the nominee.

Pssstt... hunters.

[Hippo_Tron]

18. I honestly don't see how she could do worse than Kerry, who took Peensylvania and Michigan

Clark is also very in favor of gun control.

[Tesha]

20. A Clinton election might be the first ever to go 50 to 0.

(Against)

[PassingFair]

24. Hello?

LOTS of people H-A-T-E her.
They would vote for McCain or Guiliani
over Clinton.

She would do MUCH worse than Kerry here in Michigan.

[blm]

25. Kerry also took NH.

.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. I can see some of the former red states

who turned blue in 2006 staying blue in '08--Arkansas, for one.

[muntrv]

3. Depends on who the nominee is. I could see Gore or John Edwards

making inroads in Tennessee, Ohio, Missouri, Arizona.

[Clark2008]

15. Gore - not Edwards.

Sorry.

[PVnRT]

21. Why not Edwards?

n/t

[KingFlorez]

5. All our states seems pretty secure

In 2006 Republicans did not perform well in most blue states, so I don't think they will be picking up any.

[lvx35]

6. It also depends on what happens in the mean time in congress.

I think Dems should stay focused on the mandate they were given regarding new direction in Iraq, and be careful to look like the don't betray that mandate by backing some stupid Iraq plan like a draft or anything that could increase casualties. Also, wedge issues like immigration and gay marriage should be avoided as much as possible, or Dems should back sensible moderate steps in these diretions that are not likely to piss moderates off. If they stay cautious and sane, I think a Dem prez is a given.

[amandabeech]

16. Jobs and the economy may also be big in 2008,

especially in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Big-time free traders may be a tough sell in those states for either party.

If the dollar tanks and oil prices go up, the economy could be a big factor everywhere.

[PVnRT]

22. There's no "may" about it

It's an enormous issue and will continue to be so so long as jobs keep getting exported.

[amandabeech]

26. I wonder to what extent Sen. Clinton will be tarred with the policies

of her husband--support for NAFTA and MFN for China as well as her own votes.

Edwards may strike a chord on these issues, of course, if he actually has a plan to deal with the problems.

Obama can say what he wants about NAFTA and MFN-China, but I don't recall his vote on CAFTA.

If Schumer and his group actually get their tariff on Chinese products as the result of the artificially low yuan, it will be interesting to see who joins up.

[HockeyMom]

7. Rudy would lose NY to Hillary

Based on latest poll, and my own "on the ground" observation. New York would stay Blue. Plus, this would be the best case scenario. Anybody other than Rudy? No way, Jose. Not even close.

[against all enemies]

9. Thanks, was wondering about that.

[nickshepDEM]

11. Sienna College actually just conducted a 2008 Rudy vs Hillary poll

Hillary was up by like 15

[nickshepDEM]

10. It depends on the candidate... McCain could easily win

New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. A few others would be in play.

[fujiyama]

12. McCain wouls be competetive in several battleground states

possibly including MI.

He would definetely make PA, WI, NM, NH, OH, and IA competetive.

But in my opinion, they have an uphill climb with almost any other candidate. For all the hype surrounding Giuliani, I think he has some exploitable skeletons and will eventually come unhinged. There's a reason that NYC simply got sick of him near the end (even after 9/11). BRownback is a lunatic, and that dipshit ex-governor of Mass comes off really arrogant.

Plus, they'll have Iraq hanging over them.

But giving Hillary the nomination, makes '08 a lot easier for them.

[PVnRT]

23. Once people start scrutinizing McCain

he won't look near as clean, especially with all of his overtures lately to the lunatic fringe of the GOP. And you are dead on about Giuliani, he is not near as strong a candidate as people think.

[More Than A Feeling]

13. Illinois is 41% registered Dem now. It isn't going anywhere. n/t

[jefferson_dem]

19. Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico are definitely flip-able.

And maybe CO, Nevada, and Iowa, among others.

50 state strategy baby!