Bayh's out... who's next?

[liberalpragmatist]

My guess is Vilsack will be out before the Iowa Caucus. Though I could easily be wrong; it IS very early.

Given that Hillary and Obama both look very likely to run, they're going to suck a lot of the oxygen out of the field. Besides them, that leaves Edwards, who's in the best position of someone not Hillary or Obama and then probably Wes Clark and Bill Richardson. I don't believe Gore's running, but if he does, he makes it even more difficult for Vilsack and some of the other lower tier candidates.

I think Vilsack will drop out. And I think Biden and Dodd will either opt not to run or will drop out before Iowa as well. Kerry? Really hard to tell. He seemed a definite go 6 months ago; not there seems to be some wavering there. I'm beginning to think he may well stay out or never go beyond "exploratory" phase.

[hlthe2b]

1. Rumor has it that Warner is back in... will make some DUers happy

I'm totally non-commital at this stage...

[THUNDER HANDS]

9. An Obama-Warner ticket would be sick

sick in a good way, you know, like the kids use it. :D

[LiberalFighter]

2. Biden needs to be the next to drop out.

Biden absolutely can never win. He is like the perennial flower. They return year after year, growing in size and stature until they reach their full maturity. Although they live on longer, many perennials lose their vigor after 3-4 years, and should be replaced.

[Rowdyboy]

3. Vilsack, Biden and Dodd are just spinning their wheels....I'm not sure Clark

could raise enough money without the Clintons behind him, Kerry is DOA and Richardson faces a very tough road against Edwards, Clinton and Obama (I take Gore at his word that he has no intention of running).

Personally, I think Edwards or Obama will make up the eventual ticket, just not sure of the order.

[blm]

10. And then there will be the series of debates where they are all held up to each other

and their answers are dissected and scrutinized for on substance and intent.

And that is where the field really begins to take shape. EVERYONE sounds good when they are not the target of intense negative campaigns against them - for as long as that lasts.

[skipos]

4. Please oh please let it be Hillary. nt

[jcrew2001]

5. Bayh

I think that running is also posturing for VP and other administration spots. Biden was going to be Secretary of State under Kerry, so I think even if he does not have a realistic shot against Clinton or Edwards, Biden is doing what Edwards did in 2004, by trying to establish himself and garner enough recognition for the VP spot.

On the other hand, Bayh declined to run may improve his chances of the VP spot, by avoiding a confrontation with Clinton or Edwards. Bad blood in the primary may doom any losers chances of the VP spot, and maybe Bayh put out feelers/scenarios of dropping out in order to garner favortism for the VP spot under Edwards, who he's good friends with, and the Clinton machine.

[Robbins]

6. My Take

I think Dodd won't run.Biden Is basicly running to try for VP.I would not be surprised If Kerry
didn't run.And It Is withen the realm of possibilty Clark doesn't run.The nomination Is a battle
between Hilary,Obama,Edwards,and Gore If he runs.

[newyawker99]

8. Hi jcrew2001!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[election_2004]

7. I believe it will be Obama

The Hillaristas will "arm-twist" Senator Obama into staying out of the race, so they can position their queen as the "Goldilocks" of the primaries...oh, Kucinich, Biden, and Clark are "too liberal"...but Edwards, Richardson, and Vilsack are "too conservative"...so of course, that makes Senator Clinton "just right"....

*gag*