Hillary's support stalling as Obama's skyrockets

[bigdarryl]

I disagree with one quote from this article saying Obama is Hillary's only serious challenger. Keep your eyes on Edwards http://www.suntimes.com/news/novak/174918,CST-EDT-novak17.article

[ray of light]

1. Keep your eyes on Kerry, Edwards, Clark, and Gore then

watch the media attempt to take down ALL of them.

Obama is their current Dean. THey're 'lovin' him because they can. Then as soon as he looks like he'll get cross-over votes they'll swiftboat him like they did Kerry, Dean, and Gore.

Watch them test their stories.

[IndyOp]

2. I think Obama is the great VP contender - the great unknown, neutral...

Obama would "go" with any of them...

Kerry/Obama
Edwards/Obama
Clark/Obama
Gore/Obama

But except for a possible Gore/Edwards ticket, I can't imagine Kerry, Edwards, Clark, Gore becoming running mates in any combination. Kerry/Edwards - not again. Kerry/Clark? Gore isn't going to be anyone's VP.

:shrug:

[ray of light]

4. I would love to see Kerry/Gore, Kerry/Clark Kerry/Obama or Kerry/Edwards

(or visa-versa on those.) Plus, Kerry is experienced enough to make a great VP candidate or a Secretary of Defense or Secretary of State. Gore would be a great Secretary of Interior or Secretary of State.

We're just extremely lucky to have so many wonderful candidates. (Even though Gore is technically not a candidate and we don't know about Sen. Kerry yet.)

I'm just not too supportive of one specific candidate--Clinton. I wish I could be frankly. I'd like to keep the windows open to all of them. But everyone I talk to on the street hates Hillary. I'm afraid they hate her more than they even consider hating anyone else. I'm afraid that if she wins the nom. in 08, they will stay home. Nobody else garners that type of reaction.

[Firespirit]

9. I think you're right

That recent Rasmussen poll matched four Democrats against Newt Gingrich -- no, not a serious Republican candidate, but a good benchmark to see just how many people point-blank would NOT vote for a Democrat. In each matchup, the Dem won, but the results are quite interesting.

Gingrich vs. Gore -- 52%/36%
Gingrich vs. Obama -- 48%/38%
Gingrich vs. Kerry -- 47%/38%
Gingrich vs. Hillary -- 50%/41%

I think it's significant that this consummate Republican slimeball can only break 40% when running against Hillary Clinton. That's the baseline of the anti-Hillary vote, as I see it. And she's not doing much more than 33-35% of Dems in polls, as has been the case for a long time now. Meanwhile, Kerry and Edwards are going up, at least according to the NBC/WSJ poll.

[IndianaGreen]

13. Obama has charisma and a powerful message

Obama has charisma and a powerful message that resonates with a lot of people. Obama is not just a "flash in the pan" as Andrea Mitchell called him today on NBC.

Clark is in single digits and his strong resume won't get him to the front of the pack (sorry Clarkies!). Clark is not Ike!

If Gore were to run, he better make his intentions clear pretty soon. I don't think he is running! But if he were to run, it would change all the calculations about this race.

Kerry will have to somehow get over the "he already had his chance" bit, and somehow get the public to give him a second look. Hard to do when he is competing against Edwards, who is younger and more attractive than Kerry. Another problem for Kerry is that people will say that if he couldn't win with the grand ABB coalition he had in 2004, he is unlikely to win in 2008.

A less charitable point of view is that Democrats and antiwar independents held their noses in 2004 in voting for Kerry, and that now we all want to vote for someone that excites us and gives us a new vision for tomorrow.

I personally think that Boomers had their chance, and it is time for a new generation to lead us into a 21st century version of the New Frontier.

Excluding the many negatives about Hillary, the bottom line is that she is a boomer and she represents a past of triangulation and amoral politics. Hillary's snub of Ms Royal, the leading candidate for the presidency in France (story posted in LBN), is just one more indicator that Hillary represents the politics-as-usual that have done so much harmed to our nation.

As Obama says, it is time to turn the page!

[blm]

26. Bush was at his most POWERFUL from 2002-05, and the media made sure of it.

And so did Bill Clinton.

Big difference facing BushInc in 2008 compared to opposing it in 2003 and 4.

[Kolesar]

5. "their current Dean"

Tell me more.

[ray of light]

10. Remember when they talked "UP" Dean? Then they creamed him

with the scream? (And in my opinion that was a complete hatchet job on Dean! I happen to like Dean quite a lot!)

Well, my theory is that they will raise someone, maybe Obama, and then they will go AFTER that person tooth and nail to knock them down. (Get it? Just like they did to Dean, and Kerry, and Gore!)

[IndianaGreen]

12. Gore is not running. Only Edwards seems to be ready for Iowa

in a big way too! I suspect Vilsack is nothing but a proxy for Hillary, someone to weaken the anti-Hillary opposition.

If Obama comes back from his Hawaiian vacation and decides to run, he will have to go to Iowa and get organized there as Edwards has.

[Mass]

3. I would not give any credence in what Novak is saying.

Obviously, Obama is certainly having a media buzz and that helps him, but otherwise, it is way too early to say. Newspapers are filled of fools that thought they predicted who will will in 2004, and most of them had it wrong. They are also filled with people predicting that Bayh or Warner were favorites in an 08 race. They forgot "if they run".

We are one year before the first caucuses, and many things may happen. Do not dismiss anybody's chances. At this point, eveybody have their chance. They have to make their case to the public who, in the meantime, will continue to hype a couple of people.

[IndianaGreen]

14. The last poll I saw had Hillary at 37%

which tells me that 63% of Democrats are supporting someone other than Hillary. Previous polls consistently showed Hillary below 40%. I think Hillary is beatable!

[Le Taz Hot]

6. Hillary's "support"

has been media driven all along. There are other candidates to which this applies as well.

[Kolesar]

7. "Their current Lieberman"

She has got name recognition and high polling. In the same manner that Joe "Droopy Dog" Lieberman had name recognition at this time four years ago. How many of those polled have any idea that there might be a Vilsack, Edwards, Clark, or whomever* in the race?

*just throwing out names. No preference, here.

[bigdarryl]

8. There rotting for Hillary it's BLATANT obvious

l would like to know where and who they are polling. that Hillary is ahead in the polls everybody I talk to who are dem's don't like her as a possible Presidential candidate.

[ray of light]

11. NOBODY at all likes her! Republicans OR Dems!

These are the phoniest numbers I've ever heard of!

[election_2004]

15. On the contrary, she has THREE serious challengers, potentially....

Obama from her left.

Edwards from her right.

And Clark from above.

Hopefully Vilsack/Richardson/Kucinich won't be afraid to also join in the dogpile, just because they're afraid to make waves with the "nominee apparent."

[Superman Returns]

16. edwards from her right?

I would say Edwards might do better among conservative dems but thats because of his vibe and populist talk. However, he is certainly liberal on many issues, maybe more than Hillary. I think people tend to forget that many "moderates" are not necessarly centrists and would be open to progressive populism and anti-establishment rhetoric. Even traditional conservatives

[Clark2008]

17. Yes, from her right.

If you don't know, he's well more conservative than she.

[Superman Returns]

19. I disagree

I don't think Edwards is more conservative than Clinton. Its funny considering the liberal blogs and grassroots all support him over any hypothetical Clinton matchup.

[Clark2008]

31. Considering he voted for the war and helped write the Patriot Act

amongst other things, I have no idea where this support is coming from on liberal blogs. I think they're blinded by the "cute" factor (and some of us don't think Ken Doll is that cute).

[benny05]

18. I agree wholeheartedly there

I am not fond of the DLC'ers. I'm definitely moderate but I would consider myself a progressive moderate. Government should not regulate all business, but at the moment, it should not be for corporate welfare that fights against the taxpayers' wishes (high energy and medicine costs), which is what the DLC'ers seem to me be advocating. I'm for giving business a hand-up for health care costs, especially small business owners, which is not welfare but an investment for improved productivity. We are about to go into a recession, and many business owners will be forced to reduce their benes to employees, especially those who trying to make ends meet. 47 million are uninsured, and I've heard that estimates up(sorry don't have a link handy) to 100 million are under-insured.


Check out this article from when he spoke last month in SC.

http://www.wistv.com/Global/story.asp?S=5824011

[fuzzyball]

20. Here is what Dick Morris said about Obama today....

According to the toesucker, Obama is being used
by the Clinton war machine as a stalking horse for
Hillary. The idea is to suck the oxygen out of all
other contenders such as Edwards, Kerry, Gore etc.
so that they get minimum news coverage.

Morris then adds, once Obama & Hillary are the only
two front runners remaining after the initial batch of
primaries, it will much easier for hillary to knock
off Obama sighting his inexperience in foreign affairs,
lack of executive experience, and his left wing record.

[bigdarryl]

22. Is this motherfucker serious PLEASE!!! he acts as if the Clinton's are Kings..

he gives them to much credit

[benny05]

25. And he despises them

For firing him during the 1996 convention when he was exposed by the media disclosing sensitive information to those who were not his spouse and he was a paying customer for their sex services.

At the same time, why would they sell him out?

[rinsd]

21. Jesus H Christ that's a steaming pile from Novakula.

Are there no limits to your seeking of anti-Hillary crap?

[ripple]

23. I think one difference between Hillary and other candidates

is that Hillary already has her base of support and is unlikely to expand it much. People already have their minds made up about her.

Edwards might have a little bit of that, too, but I think more people will at least be open to him, as he wasn't particularly polarizing in 2004.

Obama has the advantage in this area, IMO, because he's likely to get a lot of the people who dislike Hillary, as well as those who can't get excited about supporting Edwards again. In other words, his base of support has a lot more potential for growth.

[Countdown_3_2_1]

24. Is it me, or is Obamma peaking two years too early

He has charisma, he's a good speaker...but two years are a lot of time to tear somebody down.
My money says things will look real different this time next year.

(BTW, How old is Rove? Is he looking to retire, or can he serve in yet another administration?)

[hijinx87]

29. very good point

it's hard to tell where the "peak" is before you
actually hit it.

[Clarkie1]

27. Kerry's support has dropped from 16% to 8%. Interesting but not surprising. nt

[Jennicut]

28. As far as I'm concerned everyone is a contender

Anything can happen. I hate the coronation of a "winner" almost two years away from the actual nomination and election. As far as I'm concerned the list of contenders is Edwards, Obmama, Hillary, Gore unless he says otherwise, and Clark. That is a alot of people and we just don't know how it will play out. They all have their strengths amd weaknesses and anyone of those 5 could get the nomination. I don't think Kerry will run and I doubt Vilsack or Kusinich will have any impact. The field is open. The race has just started. I wanna hear stands on issues and plans on how to fix health care, education, ect. I want to hear actual debating and where the candidates (once they have declared) stand. No one is the "winner".

[hijinx87]

30. the score before the game starts . . . .

is always 0-0. :)