Which States Have 2008 Senate Contests?

[Bob Geiger]

I haven't really started looking at them yet but, since so many of you have e-mailed asking, here's the U.S. Senate seats that will be contested in 2008:

Democratic

• Max Baucus (D-MT)
• Joseph Biden (D-DE)
• Richard Durbin (D-IL)
• Tom Harkin (D-IA)
• Tim Johnson (D-SD)
• John Kerry (D-MA)
• Mary Landrieu (D-LA)
• Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ)
• Carl Levin (D-MI)
• Mark Pryor (D-AR)
• Jack Reed (D-RI)
• John Rockefeller (D-WV)

Republican

• Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
• Wayne Allard (R-CO)
• Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)
• Thad Cochran (R-MS)
• Norm Coleman (R-MN)
• Susan Collins (R-ME)
• John Cornyn (R-TX)
• Larry Craig (R-ID)
• Elizabeth Dole (R-NC)
• Pete Domenici (R-NM)
• Michael Enzi (R-WY)
• Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
• Chuck Hagel (R-NE)
• James Inhofe (R-OK)
• Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
• Pat Roberts (R-KS)
• Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
• Gordon Smith (R-OR)
• Ted Stevens (R-AK)
• John Sununu (R-NH)
• John Warner (R-VA)

Yes, you read that correctly -- that's 21 Republican seats up for grabs compared to only 12 Democratic spots. Hagel, Biden and Kerry are all very likely going to run for president, so we'll see what effect that has on their Senate seats but, overall, it may be a very good chance for Democrats to strengthen the tenuous, 51-49 hold they now have on the Senate.

Will Harold Ford Jr. return to take on Alexander in Tennessee? Will John Warner retire and, if so, will George "Macaca" Allen attempt a comeback? And is Mary Landrieu in trouble in Louisiana because of Hurricane Katrina relocating so many Democratic voters out of the state for good?

I guess we'll see...

[KKKarl is an idiot]

1. Some vulnerable looking republicans

Hope we put forward some good work over the next 2 years. It would be nice to have a majority of 5-10.

[BOSSHOG]

2. The rumor mill is starting to perk up

in Mississippi that Senator Cochran may not seek reelection. He will be 71 in 2008. Whoever gets the republican nomination for Senator in Louisiana better pack a lunch. Mary might not be the ideal democrat but she is one fiesty campaigner. The last neanderthal that ran against her got her ass kicked and then run over.

[Parche]

20. senators

I just hope Jeff Sessions is defeated, he is the biggest nifnod out there!!!

[SharonRB]

3. It would be great if we could pick up some of those Repub seats

Thank goodness I know Carl Levin is safe!

[TheWraith]

4. In terms of vulnerable seats, I would see it thusly:

On our side, there's Max Baucus, Joseph Biden, and Tim Johnson. I would hope that Kerry doesn't run again--he'd be better off keeping his senate seat. For the Republicans, it'll probably be Wayne Allard, Norm Coleman, Pete Domenici, Ted Stevens, and John Sununu. Maybe Saxby Chambliss, Elizabeth Dole, and Jack Warner if I were really optimistic.

[kentuck]

5. I think we should look at everyone of them as vulnerable...

Don't write off any of them. Use the Governor Dean strategy - all 50 states.

[TheWraith]

7. It's a nice theory, but the reality is you always have to focus your efforts.

There simply isn't the money to give each and every race the attention it deserves, so you have to put it in the places where it can do the most good. The DNC targeted something like 40 particularly vulnerable House seats in 2006, and we won most of them. (Ironically, that's one of the reasons that James Carville went off on Dean--Carville was among those pushing for a wider expansion of targeted races, in the belief that we could win more seats.) However, if we tried to spread our resources across all 235 Republican-held House seats, we'd have never had enough money or people in the places where it counted. The "50 state strategy" is best used as a high-level concept rather than an explicit roadmap for a given election.

[gratuitous]

9. If Oregon's Democrats can get it together

And field a tough candidate (for a change) against Gordon Smith, there are several indicia in the Beaver State that Mr. Smith may not go back to Washington. A lot of people are noticing that Smith's "moderate" credentials are mostly pasted-on costume jewelry, and that the real diamonds on his resume are unwavering support for the nuttiest of the wingnut ideas.

In the last election cycle, for example, Smith garnered a very important endorsement from Matthew Shepard's mother as a reliable vote in favor of gay rights. Since 2002 though, Smith hasn't met a gay-bashing proposal he didn't like. A lot. Smith has also (up until a very short time ago) been a foursquare backer of Bush's adventures in foreign imperialism, a stance that plays less and less well in Oregon, even in the rural areas where Smith's strength lies.

If a good Democratic candidate emerges (Earl Blumenauer, are you listening?) who can peel away a few percentage points from Smith in the less populous areas of the state, Mr. Smith might have to go back to pea-packing and pond killing for his daily bread. Or so it is to be hoped.

[Arugula Latte]

15. My dream is that (former governor) Kitzhaber steps up and

kick's ol' Gordon's ass back to Pendleton.

[stevedeshazer]

18. Me too, but he's said he doesn't want to run

I think Earl Blumenauer would beat him, and Peter DeFazio's chances are even better.

[stevedeshazer]

17. Well said, gratuitous

As a fellow webfoot, I agree that Gordon Smith's "moderate" credentials amount to a hill of peas.

In addition to your well stated critique of Gordo's prostitution of Matthew Shepard's mother, it's appropriate to remind others that he flip-flopped on his vote to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge after the votes were carefully counted, in order to establish some phony environmental credibility.

[stevedeshazer]

10. Max Baucus has a 72% approval rating in Montana

I don't think he's vulnerable at all.

[TheWraith]

13. Hm, you're right.

I wasn't entirely aware of his personal approval, so I was mainly working from local trends.

[SteppingRazor]

6. We've got a lot less seats, but we appear to be more vulnerable...

If Harkin runs for president in Iowa, a GOP could fill an open seat, even though they'd lose in a direct battle with Harkin.

In South Dakota, Tim Johnson could step down for health reasons. Hell, depending on how the next couple weeks go, I can't say I would blame him. Anyway, an open seat in S.D. could also go red.

Louisiana has trended GOP since Katrina, due to the diaspora. Landrieu's in for a fight.

Lautenberg might retire, meaning yet another open seat.

Kerry could run for president, but even if he leaves his senate seat, I can't see him being replaced by a GOP.



On the Republican side, I think Wayne Allard and Norm Coleman are vulnerable. But looks like about it, unless Warner retires.

[ISUGRADIA]

12. Harkin is not running for president, Vilsack's already in the race

[Hawkeye-X]

16. Mallard's finished

If he breaks his two-term pledge, he knows he's in for a major fight against Rep. Udall who's very popular here in Colorado (and has amassed a warchest of $2M and he hasn't announced yet) and should not have any trouble getting his seat in.

Hawkeye-X

[Eurobabe]

8. Big'un: WARNER Virginia...OUT! John not Mark

[election_2004]

11. South Dakota and Louisiana are critical....

The Dems hold a Senate majority by a mere ONE VOTE right now. One net loss or net gain could literally tip the balance.

It's unlikely that Johnson will be able to run for reelection in South Dakota. With Governor Rounds eying Johnson's Senate seat, it might be too daunting for even Stephanie Herseth to challenge him (I personally believe Herseth should wait until 2010 to challenge Thune).

Louisiana will also be tough for Landrieu to hold, especially if Hillary Clinton is the presidential nominee. It's unclear whether Bobby Jindal will run for Governor in 2007 or challenge Landrieu in '08. But it's Louisiana...so even the screwiest nutball who the GOP puts up could have a shot (after all, David Vitter wasn't even forced into a runoff in '04).

Ultimately, even if Lautenberg retires, I believe NJ is safe. They just need a charismatic Dem contender...doesn't matter if it's a veteran like Bob Andrews or a relative newcomer like Nia Gill.

On the vulnerable Republican side, Oregon and Minnesota are ripe for overthrows. Gordon Smith might end up as the George Allen of 2008. Coleman can be easily defeated in Minnesota, but it will be hard if the DFL caves and hands the nomination to Al Franken (personally, I believe that Becky Lourey would play better than Franken in rural MN).

Oh, and New Mexico is potentially up for grabs...although less so if Domenici runs for reelection. Just don't expect Richardson to run for that seat...he wants to run for president.

[KansDem]

14. Possibly Pat Roberts in Kansas?

If the Democrats pursue investigations concerning Iraqi war intelligence and the manipulation thereof, and if information about Roberts covering up for the Bushistas comes out resulting in treasonous-like behavior, and if the Democrats run a strong challenger, then maybe we could pick up this seat.

I know, a lot of "ifs" but it could happen...:D

edited for word choice

[ArkySue]

19. I just wish...

that a real progressive Democrat would take out Sen. David (go along to get along) Pryor in the primary. Won't happen...he'll still be trading on the family name. Sigh.....

[SaveElmer]

21. Early prediction...you heard it here first...

Republican

Definitely vulnerable

Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire

Potentially vulnerable

Virginia
Oregon

With any luck will be vulnerable

Mississippi (IF Cochran retires)


Democrat

Definitely vulnerable

Louisiana

Potentially vulnerable

South Dakota (If Johnson retires...though I think Herseth would take the seat)
New Jersey


Prediction: Democrats pick up 3 seats, lose none

January 2009 Senate will be 54-46 Democrat