Already Started: 50 most vulnerable republican seats for 2008

[LynneSin]

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/12/18/161421/34#readmore

Targeting 50 Republican House Seats from now untill Election Day 08

by Democraticavenger, Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 11:51:17 AM EST
Bumped with light editing--Chris

So this is the most ambitious blogging project I have taken on and am quite excited about it. I will be bringing you, the readers of Swing State, Dailykos, MYDD and the LastingMajority, An update on the 50 most likely Republican Seats to flip to Democratic. Updating from today, once a month, all the Way to November 08.

First let me say why I think this is so important. The blogs must play the role of offense as the DCCC might fade back into incumbent defense. We are very good on offense. This post is attempt to say which seats need to be targeted from the beginning of the cycle and adjusting as circumstance change.

In addition to just the 50 seat targeting, I provide lists of all Republican Incumbents who got less than 60% and 55%, as well as the districts which sent a Republican to Congress that gave George Bush 55% or less of the vote in 2004. This and a few open seats are from where got the list. For the top 25 targeted races, I give the reason for weakness. In the bottom 25, I just include information, not context. I hope this will aid the netroots community in making even better targeting decisions.

The Top 50 races

1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.

2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won . He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.

3. NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.

4. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.

5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage ?
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.