The 10 House seats most likely to change parties in '08

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Friday Line: Endangered House Freshmen

....The seats are listed alphabetically (even The Fix isn't ready to rank them numerically)....

* California's 11th District (Currently D): After getting just 39 percent in 2004, Rep.-elect Jerry McNerney (D) took 53 percent two years later to knock off Rep. Richard Pombo (R). McNerney benefited from the general anti-Republican mood in the country as well as the years-long assault on Pombo from national environmental groups. Pombo didn't help his cause by running a decidedly lackluster campaign. The best news for McNerney when it comes to 2008 is that Pombo is considering a return engagement. If Pombo takes a pass, this will almost certainly be a tougher race for McNerney as it will be more about him and his record in his first two years in office rather than about Pombo. The district gave President Bush 54 percent of the vote in 2004.

* Florida's 13th District (R) : At some point, Democrat Christine Jennings's unwillingness to concede this race could damage her party's chances of winning the seat in 2008. Jennings continues to pursue her legal fight about undervotes in Sarasota County. She has sued the state in hopes of being declared the winner of the race or having a re-vote scheduled. Jennings has also asked the House Administration Committee to look into the voting irregularities when the 110th Congress convenes Jan. 4. The chances of success are slim. Meanwhile, Rep.-elect Vern Buchanan (R) is moving forward to claim the seat. His 369-vote margin should ensure a serious challenge in 2008 when Florida is certain to -- again -- be a prime battleground in the presidential race.

* Florida's 16th District (D) : Everything that could go wrong did go wrong for Republicans here in 2006. Rep. Mark Foley (R) resigns amid a national scandal over his relationship with House pages. Republicans are unable to replace his name on the ballot -- requiring voters to cast a vote for Foley if they wanted to elect state Rep. Joe Negron, (R) who ran in his place. Despite ALL of that, Rep.-elect Tim Mahoney (D) won narrowly, 49 percent to 48 percent. That should be worrisome to national Democratic strategists who aren't likely to enjoy that same perfect storm in 2008. It will be a very tough hold in a district where Bush won 54 percent vote in 2004.

* Georgia's 8th District (D): Until Rep. Jim Marshall (D) makes a decision on whether to run against Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) in 2008, it's hard to handicap the race for this seat. Marshall once again proved his mettle this year by defeating former Rep. Mac Collins (R) in a redrawn district that, as now drawn, gave Bush 61 percent of its vote in 2004. If Marshall decides to stay put, he is far from a sure thing for reelection given that Georgia appears to be getting more and more Republican with each passing election -- a trend likely to be heightened in a year with a presidential election at the top of the ballot....

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/12/the_house_line.html#more

[Straight Shooter]

1. Premature prognostication.

Wait until the investigations kick into gear and yield some results on the fetid pool of corruption known as the GOP.

As for Jennings' fight to preserve voter rights, only in the neanderthal mind of a Repub would such a position be held against somebody. I believe the same argument was made against Gore -- let's move on, let it go -- and look where the fugg we are now.

[Parche]

6. premature prog

More like premature election..................

[David__77]

2. As a northern CA "political junkie," I disagree with McNerney heading this list.

Pombo's seat was nominally Republican, but there are an awful lot of liberal Republicans in th east Bay Area in that district, who are slowly trickling over to the Democratic side. Every year the gap closes, and there should be parity by late 2008. This district, and a similar state assembly district drawn for Republicans in this area, were also designed to be competitive late in this decade because the demographics changing could be seen coming.

[BrotherBuzz]

4. I don't disagree with your assesment...

[LynneSin]

3. Why do they assume we're gonna lose some of these "D" pickup seats we got?

I know that PA-10 is a conservative district and that Chris Carney benefitted from the fact that Sherwood was caught with a mistress. However, what I liked about Carney was the fact that he was more on the moderate side which appeals to voters in this district that tends to favor republicans.

Some thought after Tim Holden(D) outsted George Gekas (R) in PA-17 in a 2002 race where two incumbents were merged into the same district would turn back to republican in the next election. George Gekas was well overdue for retirement and proved it by being caught several times on TV sleeping at his chair in congress. However, two elections later Tim Holden not only has a lock on PA-17 but moved that seat into a safe-D seat. Trust me, republicans did NOT gerrymander that district for democrats!

[Sapere aude]

5. Give it a rest will you? I think some people are election crazy!

All you can talk about are elections? What about what we should do with the new Congress we have now?

It's like you want to win and that is all there is to it.

[DeepModem Mom]

8. Well, this forum is called "General Discussion: Politics"...

and a pretty good number of DUers, besides being dedicated to liberal causes that are important for our country and the world, and interested in what we do with power, are also what is called "political junkies." And just to note -- I post a lot on this board, more often than not in LBN, and probably more often than not, unrelated to elections.

[dajoki]

7. Please let us enjoy this victory...

for a while. Too early to worry about that.

[thatsrightimirish]

9. McNerney?

Please! Californians rarely vote out incumbents, especially 2 year ones. Besides in 2010 this district is going to be redrawn to make it even more democratic friendly just like Tauschers seat.

[Doctor_J]

10. His "Top 10 Likely Senators to be unseated" was a joke

he had 5 of each party, including Harkin. Too much crack being used at the fix.

[Hippo_Tron]

11. We have dem congressmen in districts that went to Bush by far more than 54%

I don't doubt that the GOP will be targeting these seats but I give the new incumbents the upper hand.