Montana 2008... could be competitive

[nickshepDEM]

US Senate
Baucus-D: 48%
Rehberg-R: 44%
Undecided: 8%

http://www.helenair.com/articles/2006/12/25/ap-state-mt/d8m7fc480.txt

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

1. Islamic Cab Driving Assasins Fuel Voter Fears

It's patently obvious that unless the Democratic party comes to grips with the threat of incompetent firefighters and up-to-date hunting licenses now, the Mountain West will slip away from us.

[flying rabbit]

2. say it brother

you speak the truth

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

4. Wrong

I babble mindlessly/hopelessly, and people mistake it for insight.

[flying rabbit]

7. have you considered

running for office?

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

9. You have your marching orders

I've got three years to further smother myself in Seattle's collective breast before my run for county sherrif. I expect you there, flying rabbit, and I expect you armed.

[flying rabbit]

10. locked and loaded

don't fuck this up

[Yukari Yakumo]

3. This assumes Rehburg decides not to run for another House term. {nt}

uguu

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

5. But slightly more seriously

People should not be deluding themselves into believing that Montana is somehow a new Democratic stronghold. Conrad Burns, despite being buttfucking crazy, was knocked off by a fraction of a percent, and the Republicans are at the gates of both houses.

We're going to have to Go Big in this legislative session if we're going to hold our gains.

[Warpy]

6. Their governor is an outspoken PROGRESSIVE

who won by telling it like it is in plain language and didn't talk down to his constituents. He also didn't promise business as usual.

The DLC needs to step aside and the party needs to run candidates who will do the same thing. That's how to WIN.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

8. Yes.

I'm completely aware of the new language/policy shift that has made us competitive in Montana/Colorado/other places, and it couldn't be farther removed from the Dark Language of the DLC.

But we shouldn't pretend that Schweitzer is marching on a Republican road of bones, or that we should be moving Montana into the Democratic collumn for 2008. Its precarious, and if we don't prove that 2006 was a victory for EVERYBODY, it could go right back into Republican hands.

[Hippo_Tron]

14. But Jon Tester was a longshot candidate to begin with

That's why I think his win would've been huge even if it was by one vote.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

17. However

Burns was half expected to be in handcuffs before election night, and even with that waying him down, he still went out of his ways to stake claims and positions that would make most candidates for office consider a more dignified exit from the election of self immolation cald only in a bunny outfit.

John Tester is going to walk tall and kick ass and rests dearly in my heart, no one disputes that, but 32 term uber-senator or not, Conrad Burns never should've gotten that close.

[KingFlorez]

11. Montana voted in Jon Tester

By a small margin, but still a big change for them to make. I don't know if Rehberg would win, but if he did I think Baucus would win about 56-44, Now that Baucus is in the Senate majority, he's got too much clout and ability to get things done for them to boot him out.

[John Q. Citizen]

13. Baucus' main problem is that he's equally disliked by MT Dems and Repos

alike, not to mention independents.

Last election he ran as a friend of bush, using pictures of him and bush in almost all of his campaign ads.

His claims to fame is pork, and generally voting with the Repos on most important issues.

The best way Dems can hold his seat is to dump Baucus in the primaries and get a decent candidate who isn't universally disliked.

[Zynx]

12. Well that is the worst case scenario.

Rehberg is the most popular Republican in the state with a safe house seat.

[Hippo_Tron]

15. Baucus beat Rehberg in 1996, I honestly don't see how he loses to him in '08

Especially since he'll be chairman of the extremely powerful Senate Finance Committee. The fact that Rehberg isn't 10-15 points behind Baucus this early in the game is that his name ID is probably about as high as Baucus' is. This is similar to Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania, who was polling within the margin of error against Rendell early on and then got his ass handed to him on election day.

[Ediacara]

16. Eh, I don't think Rehberg will run

This battle was already fought in 1996 and Rehberg lost. In 2002 Rehberg didn't run, and the GOP ended up nominating a third tier candidate named Mike Taylor. Taylor quit the race and there was a period where the GOP was scrambling to look for a replacement candidate but their two top potentials, Rehberg and former governor Racicot both refused. Taylor reentered the race and was soundly trounced. Rehberg has a safe House seat, I don't see him giving it up for a long shot run at the Senate.

[snowbear]

18. My question is.. what the heck are U doing looking at MT polls on Christmas day Nick?

Look at how many Rethug seats are up in '08 compared to Democratic seats.

Even if Rehberg slips in (which he won't) we're likely to pick up more seats than the thugs.

Happy New Year! ~~~