Scuttle is Sen Evan Bayh is considering running for Gov of Indiana

[salin]

An item appeared on www.talkingpointsmemo.com reporting that Bayh is considering running against Gov Daniels; that Bayh reportedly enjoyed being governor more than being a Senator and is considering such a move.

This is interesting on several levels - and leaves this hoosier with mixed thoughts.

1) The state constitution does not allow for more than two consecutive terms - but does not disallow more than two terms (Bayh was governor from 1988 - 1996).

2) The same item about Bayh possible running states that Daniels is playing coy as to whether he would seek a second term. If he is playing coy - would guess that he, too has heard the scuttle - and like Sen. Dan Coates before him might not want to leave the political arena as a "loser" but rather as a 'chosing not to run again' former elected official.

I have said before that while Bayh is very popular with Hoosiers - I do not think that even if his name were on the top of a Presidential ticket, that it would be enough to turn this 'vote red for pres' state (since 1968) - some habits die hard. That said - I think he could win any state-wide race.

3) Who would replace him in the senate? I believe that his Senate term is up in 2010 - leaving a 2 year fill-in. If he runs without resigning from the senate - would he (as gov. elect) appoint his successor (as happened in Alaska when Sen Murkowski became gov. Murkowski and promptly appointed his daughter to the Senate) - or would the sitting Gov (Daniels til Bayh would take office) get to appoint a republican senator (good bye senate majority!) Or would hoosier voters be less tolerant as some in other states of an office holder running for another office without resigning? Or would there be a special election called?

4) Is there any democrat in the state with the state-wide reputation that could successfully run in a senate race to replace Bayh? The only remote possibility is Indianapolis Bart Peterson - a moderate democrat who has been a pretty decent Mayor - but does he have name recognition around the state?

5) Do I have to shirk my recent years view of Bayh being a bit opportunistic/ambitious in terms of positioning himself for a presidential run? Or would this be more of the same?

6) Point #5 being said - I think Bayh was a good Governor of Indiana - and Mitch "Privatize the entire state" Daniels has really mucked up the state - we really could use Bayh back in the Governor's office.

Not sure that this would be of much interest to all dems in general (but given the frequency with which his name was thrown around as a presidential contender, prior to his stepping out of the race - perhaps there is interest in such a discussion) - or if it would just be of interest to the Hoosier DUers. Would be very interested in either case of hearing other folks reactions and thoughts to this (possible) newest development per Bayh.

[democraticinsurgent]

1. very interesting...

Immediate reaction is that there would be a risk in trying to circumvent the spirit of the two term law if not the letter. As much as we liked Evan as governor will he be fully embraced by the populace? Would this "return" by Bayh be successfully attacked by the Repubs as "too much Bayh"?

I'd rather see another Democrat run, but as you note the bench is lean. Peterson is the best of the bunch but has the difficult decision of the 07 mayoral race ahead; if he runs for that office he'll look way opportunistic running for Gov in 08. Actually the Senate race would be easier for Peterson with the 2010 timetable.

I've also heard Baron Hill's name mentioned as a Gov candidate, or a future Senate candidate.

Count me in the mixed to negative department on Bayh's possible Gov ambition.

[salin]

2. Before 04, I had heard Hill's name bandied about for state-wide

office. After the loss to Soderel - haven't heard that. Granted his win gives his political career new life.

Wonder if Kernan is out for good? Bet a lot of folks have some buyers remorse for NOT voting for him in 04.

In this part of the state Vi Simpson has seriously raised her profile. When there was talk about running for gov in 04 (before Kernan got in the race) there was little recognition outside of her state senate district. I think she and her people learned from that and have been working to make her and her positions higher profile. No reason to make a concerted effort to do that unless... one has plans to try to run for a state-wide office in the future.

[Hoosier Dem]

3. Hoosiers LOVE Evan bayh...

If Bayh were to announce that he was running for Governor in 2008, he would be a shoo-in just becase of his personal popularity. In addition "Mitch the Corporate Bitch" Daniels is almost as unpopular as Dumbya. Unfortunately, the state Democratic Party is so anemic that Bayh is about the only one who could knock Mitch off AND provide coat-tails for other candidates.

My biggest fear would be the Senate seat. Under Indiana law, the governor's term expires on January 1st. The Senate does not usually re-convene until about January 4th or so. I'm really unclear as to when Bayh's resignation would have to be effective. Also, the odds of a Democrat not named Bayh retaining a Senate seat here could be slim, especially if they Rethugs nominate a credible candidate.

Of course, if we pick up senate seats eleswhere in 2008 (New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, Oregon), one Senate seat in Indiana might not make a real difference.

[LiberalFighter]

5. Until the second before Bayh is sworn in as Govenror

he could remain Senator. IMO That would not give the Bitch time to sign any papers appointing someone.

It would be no different then a County Auditor having served 2 consecutive terms and unable to run for a 3rd consecutive term. They decide to run for County Treasurer and win. They would still hold their office of County Auditor until the term is up and then the next day would become County Treasurer.

[LiberalFighter]

4. I don't have a problem with Bayh running as Governor

I don't consider it a problem that it would be a 3rd and 4th term because the state constitution permits it. The probable reasons that past Governors have not also done this 1) they were too old (Bayh just turned 51 this yesterday), 2) they died in office, 3) they may not had won the nomination to run for a 2nd consecutive term, 4) they did not win a 2nd term in the general election,

Only 4 were elected Governor to 2 consecutive terms. Otis Bowen (R), Robert Orr (R), Evan Bayh (D) and Frank O'Bannon (D) They were elected in order as listed.

Henry Schricker was elected twice but apparently lost in his second run for Governor.

1816 constitution restricted holding the office not more than 6 years in any term of 9 years. And were elected by electors instead of by a general election.

1851 constitution change term of office to 4 years. Governor could only hold office 4 years out of any 8 years.

1972 changed constitution to permit the current terms. Guess what that coincides with Orr being the first to serve two consecutive terms.

[salin]

8. Thanks for the primer - interesting background per the changes.

Only one issue - Otis Bowen, I believe served his consecutive terms in office before Orr. In my 'political awareness' lifetime - it has seemed as if we only have two-term governors (if one considers the Kernan stint as filling out the term of OBannon). I had no idea that it was only in this time frame that the two-term governorship was first allowed.

[LiberalFighter]

6. They wouldn't necessarily have the same status as Bayh or Lugar

but someone with enough reputation could pull it off considering they would have 2 years to build it up on a state wide level.

Possible good candidates:
Hogsett
Kernan


Also consider that Dan Coats stepped into Dan Quayle's spot won election to fill the remainder of the term and won a full 6 year term. He did not run again. Bayh ran and took over that spot which his dad lost against Quayle.

[salin]

9. Kernan yes,

less so (enough reputation to pull off a full term after only two years) for Hogsett. A second 'candidate' who might pull it off, imo, would be Peterson.

[LiberalFighter]

7. Bayh IMO there is a slight chance he could had gotten Indiana blue for Prez

But he did not turn it blue for the President when he was Governor or as Senator.