Cowgirl's Early Morning Line--Democrats

[bklyncowgirl]

Since the media treat the election of the leader of the free world as a horse race--I thought I'd try my hand at handicapping it in the time honored race track style. Weights are based on the amount of baggage a candidate carries.

Here then is the morning line for the 2008 Democratic Derby. This will be updated from time to time as things change.

2008 DEMOCRATIC DERBY

SOUTHERN MAN (John Edwards) 115 15-1
Smooth running, lightly raced, colt finished strongly in the 2004 Democratic Derby. Teamed as entry with Boston Brahmin in Presidential Plate showed speed and agility but little punch. Away from the races since 04 has been keeping up with sparkling press workouts and public appearances. Big labor support--aiming for the Lou Dobbs crowd.

Bottom Line: Plenty of talent but light in experience. May be out-glamored by Golden Boy (Obama)

WHODAT (Tom Vilsack) 110 60-1
Gets home track advantage in Iowa but little known anywhere else. Runs to the center.

Bottom Line: May be in at the end with conservative and centrist support if First Lady falters.

LITTLE BIG MAN: (Kucinich) 105 80-1
Pony sized also-ran in Democratic Derby in 04--seems a vanity entry in this one.

Bottom line: will get his points across and keep the others honest--unlikely to gain support beyond true-blue peacenik base.

FIRST LADY: (Clinton) 135 9-1
Two big wins in the New York Special shows she can run with the boys, front runner style--never been headed. First filly to make serious run at Presidential Plate. Handled by the same streetbrawling team that won the Presidential Plate with Bubba Bill in 1992. All the name recognition in the world plus a record as a Senate workhorse make her a contender.

Bottom Line: Big early support from traditional Dems and women as well as conservative DLC types. Golden Boy (Obama) will drain support from African Americans. Will run to the right--support for war will hurt--but Bubba Bill's charisma may prevail.

BOSTON BRAHMIN: (Kerry) 140 40-1
Early favorite in 2004 Democratic Derby, got off to a slow start, but moved up through the pack and was in contention when longshot speedball, Country Doctor (Dean) stumbled badly at the head of the stretch. Held off a strong challenge from Southern Man to prevail. Narrowly lost Presidential Plate to Drugstore Cowboy (Bush) due to interference in the stretch.

Bottom Line: The old war horse is eager to give it one more try but his team's failure to claim foul after interference in 04 Presidential Plate plus recent poor workouts don't show a great deal of promise.

GOLDEN BOY: (Obama) 120 12-1
Talented, lightly raced midwestern colt won Illinois Special against light opposition but came up through the ranks in tough Chicago scene making him no stranger to political infighting. Serious speed and agility. Would be first African-bred to maker serious run for the Plate. Appeals to center and left. Charisma and early opposition to the war will add to his African-American support.

Bottom Line: Inexperienced, may have hidden weaknesses but a real talent to be reckoned with.

TALKSHOWJOE: (Biden) 130 80-1
Experienced performer knows foreign policy and has been around the track. No real natural following but has some agility. Old plagerism charge will haunt.

Bottom Line: Going through the motions--not much chance.

SENOR AMBASSADOR (Richardson) 120 30-1
Has all the credentials but little known outside of southwest. Hispanic background gives him a natural base. Fake claim that he was scouted by major league team could hurt. Centrist who hasn't really offended the antiwar crowd.

Bottom Line: Could be in a position to move up if First Lady or Golden Boy falters. One to watch.

THE GENERAL: (Clark) 125 30-1
Old war horse turned race horse made debut in 04 with mixed results. Experienced in military and foreign policy. Early opposition to Iraq war gets him a devoted netroots support.

Bottom Line: Could improve off of last effort. One to watch.

WOODMAN: (Gore) 135 8-1
Despite poor ride, prevailed in a close finish over Drugstore Cowboy (Bush)in 2000 Presidential Plate but taken down by Stewards on technicality in controversial decision. Most experienced all around potential contender. Performed well as running mate with Bubba Bill in '92 and '96. Has staying power, a grinder not a speed ball though recent workouts show a surprising amount of new found quickness and agility. Gets support from anti-war and environmental types though many don't like him based on '00 image. Old views on trade could hurt him with labor.

Bottom Line: Connections say he's not running but keeps the stall door open just a crack. If he gets in, moves right to front of pack. If he can hold onto that new passionate image he could win it all.

[BlueManDude]

1. very nice - thanks!!

[wyldwolf]

2. this is great. Thanks.

[Hoosier Dem]

3. Really Cute..Thanks!

[Rock_Garden]

4. Those are some really astute assessments, Cowgirl!

I hope you'll do some updates later in the same vein.

[bklyncowgirl]

8. I'll be doing the GOP next--that should be fun, nt

[Justpat]

5. If he runs - Gore will be even money. n/t

[bklyncowgirl]

7. Not necessarily--still carries some baggage from 2000 run--that's why I gave him 135 pounds

Those of us who've loved the outspoken, passionate Gore of "Inconvenient Truth" and the antiwar speeches are convinced he could win the whole thing hands down but there are plenty of people who don't know the "real" Al Gore.

Worse yet, once in the race, he could start playing it cautious and revert to his earlier form.

That being said he is the best of the lot. IMHO.

[pennylane100]

6. What a terrific analysis

I love the fact that you gave Gore the best odds.

[Catchawave]

9. Very original !

I really enjoyed it and now have a urge to call a bookie :D

[bklyncowgirl]

11. I wonder if Vegas has a line on it already? nt

[lojasmo]

10. Friggin great analysis. EOM