Kos noon exit polls in Virginia and Tennessee from National Review...

[flpoljunkie]

Noon exit polls

http://www.dailykos.com/

by kos
Tue Feb 10th, 2004 at 20:06:39 GMT

National Review's noon exit numbers:
Tennessee

Kerry 46
Edwards 28
Clark 15
Dean 7

Virginia

Kerry 48
Edwards 25
Clark 11
Dean 8
As always, I can't verify their accuracy one way or another. Take with a grain of sand or three.

[quinnox]

1. If these hold up

I think Clark is done.

[mohc]

4. Edwards might be too though

These numbers are fairly inline with recent polls, except for Clark falling a bit in TN. If Clark falls below 15% in both states, Kerry will walk away with almost 2/3 of the delegates from 2 southern states. It completely eliminates Edwards argument of his strength in the south.

[quinnox]

11. At least Edwards would get a sizable chunk of delegates

But Clark might not even pick up any delegates if these numbers are accurate of the trend.

[AP]

13. But if Clark and Dean drop out, and it's Kerry vs Edwards in Wisconsin,

what if Edwards wins?

[mohc]

16. Thats a pretty big IF

I'm still firmly behind Edwards, but I am trying to be realistic. Just narrowing things down to a two man race, which seems to be the strategy of Dean, Edwards, and Clark, will not be enough. After establishing the two man race, Kerry will have to falter for the other candidate to take the lead. Edwards has by far the best chance to be the "other" candidate in a two man race with Kerry. But will Kerry falter in time, or at all? If he has not by Mar 9, the big southern primary day, I can not see Edwards picking off enough delegates to even force a brokered convention, let alone win.

[Mass_Liberal]

20. that if is so big

I'm choking on it.


1) these exit polls aren't necessarily too accurate

2) Dean won't drop out before Wisconsin

3) I heavily doubt Clark will drop out no matter how bad Tennesse and Virginia go

[spooky3]

15. not "completely".

For one thing, there's reason to think that Clark and Edwards are dividing up votes that the other would receive most of. For another thing, even if Kerry were to win 90% of the votes, they are still largely Democrat votes. Edwards' argument is that he has more appeal with voters in general in the south, and you can't tell at all from primary results whether Kerry would beat Bush in the south. For a third thing, it is an unfortunately reality of our system, which I accept, that the frontrunner gets a lot of goodies that the others do not get and momentum often carries the day. Kerry's entitled to that, but it does not convince me that he would be more likely than Edwards, given equal resources, to win the South in the GE.

[fertilizeonarbusto]

10. But he would be

an admirable Secretary of State or Defense :-)

[quinnox]

12. Yea, Clark should get a cabinet position in

(most likely) Kerry's administration.

[JohnKleeb]

2. my predictions hold true

[LiberalBushFan]

3. I'd be scared

but I remember the Drudge polls in OK showing Clark in 3rd.

[mohc]

6. actually

They had Clark just a fraction of a percent behind Edwards, well within MoE of the final tally. The exits did however prop up Kerry a bit.

[tameszu]

18. No, they were wrong in OK

They had Clark 3% behind the leader. And WHAT MoE?!? Neither MoE nor sample size nor any internals were cited last time.

This polls are ABSOLUTE GARBAGE: no source, no sample size, no MoE, no internals, no nothing. And no retrospective accountability, since no one really acknowledges them or takes responsibility for them afterward--and no one seems to care very much. So in essence, the editor of NRO is free to make up any old number he cares to invent.

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. They showed a tight race

And it turned out to be a squeeker.

[gasperc]

5. Clark?! what about Dean 8%

and what's up with posting these polls before the polls close

[MAlibdem]

9. They're exit polls

Interviews with voters leaving polling stations by the media/pollsters hired by the media. Legal to reveal them because they only say what the voters who willfully participated said.

But don't fear, exit polls in NH had 36% Kerry, 31% Dean at 4ish, so #s can change by 10 pts or more +-

[Freddie Stubbs]

7. They were accurate last week

[Joe the Revelator]

14. Let me be among the first to say

that this is not good

[Tom Rinaldo]

17. Reread post #9 which a Kerry supporter was kind enough to make

Games may or may not be being played. It doesn't matter now. If you don't like sitting around waiting, and if you are not already doing so, join us in eBlocking. Personally those numbers, at least in TN, seem way off, but we will find out soon enough.

[Joe the Revelator]

19. I'm actually in VA

I eblocked yesterday

I've still yet to vote, so add one more to the general.